2019 MLB Playoff Predictions

I still can’t believe that a team like the Red Sox, who had an almost 20-game winner, three players hit more than 30 home runs with a fourth that hit 29 and two players produce 100 RBIs and 100 runs, only wins 84 games. In business though, the cash cow doesn’t cause bankruptcy. Companies usually go under when they over invest. The little expenses start to add up and all of a sudden, they can’t afford the whole production. This is what seemingly happened to the Red Sox. They over paid for guys like Nathan Eovaldi, David Price and Steve Pierce and in return, handicapped themselves and let themselves without much ability to do anything this offseason if the Red Sox want to get under the luxury tax threshold. In return, we have a postseason without Boston baseball.

With October baseball set to begin without Boston, here are the official Lewis and Sports MLB Playoff Predictions.

AL Wild Card

Oakland A’s vs Tampa Bay Rays

In my Texas Rangers franchise, the Oakland A’s went through a reidentification process and renamed themselves the Oakland Beavers. Maybe that makes me biased, but the playoffs generally come down to the best pitching staff. The Indians began the playoff-bullpen archetype by employing Andrew Miller almost every night for multiple innings. Then the Astros took that and used starters as relievers, which Alex Cora then took to Boston. I think the Rays are better equipped for this new process, while the A’s might have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. All the Rays have to do is hit in this game, which is sometimes hard for them. I’ll take the Rays though.

NL Wild Card

Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers

To me, the Nationals have turned themselves into one of the most intriguing teams in the playoffs. Since the end of May, the Nationals have the best record (69-36 for a .657 winning percentage). I also feel like their trio of starters in Stephen Strasburg-Patrick Corbin-Max Scherzer make them better suited for a short series. In an otherwise mediocre season, the Brewers turned themselves into one of the hottest teams in baseball. This reminds me last of the Colorado Rockies’ home-away split. I like the matchup because of the recent success of both teams, but I will go with the more consistent Nationals. Lets just hope their bullpen holds up.

ALDS

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins

This series could turn into a slugfest. Neither team has exceptionally strong starting pitching but both teams have very good hitting. The biggest obstacle for the Yankees will be the loss of Domingo German. Still, I think Masahiro Tanaka will hold up, while the Yankees have 306 homers without most of their opening day lineup. I’m taking the Yankees in this slugfest.

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays

I don’t have much to contest here. I think the Astros have the best overall team in baseball and no team that takes them in this opening round has a true shot at beating the Astros in a best of five series. Facing Garret Cole-Justin Verlander-Zach Greinke makes it extremely hard for any team to take two-of-three, which is what it will ultimately take in facing this Astros team. I just don’t see it happening. Astros in this one.

NLDS

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals

Before the season ended, I looked for teams that had outside forces that one could say caused them to outperform. By this, I mean, the Red Sox had the Boston bombing in 2013, the Houston Astros had Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Teams generally play better when they’re playing for something greater than the game. I thought St. Louis might have had something like that, but I didn’t find anything relevant, which makes this all pointless other than for a shout out to organizational behavior. These two teams are eerily similar. They have a decent collection of hitters and pitchers and will bank on a few players to carry the rest of the team. St. Louis has an older roster with some more experience, so I like that over this young Braves team.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals

If this ends up true, this might become the best series of the postseason. Both teams rely on their starting pitching. The Dodgers have only a slight 4-3 advantage in the season series against the Nationals, which makes me feel better about believing that these teams are much closer than we think. They were built similarly, focusing on starting pitching. Generally, if I were to make a bet on this series, I would bet on the Dodgers. But I think the Nationals will make things competitive and probably have it in them to take down the Dodgers, so I will take the Nationals in this series.

ALCS

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees

I think we all expected this matchup. The Astros and Yankees were the two best teams in the American League and probably the two best teams in the MLB all season. I think losing Domingo German takes away the Yankees biggest ability to win games this postseason and even though the Yankees are more than one man, I take the consistency and potency of the Astros.

NLCS

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals

I don’t think you will see this matchup from many predictors. It will make it feel all the better when it happens though. Again, the Nationals seem like the better of the two teams in this matchup. They hit well and I think they will capitalize on any and all pitching that comes their way. As long as their bullpen holds up, the Nationals have a real shot at winning this matchup and getting to the World Series.

World Series

Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals

For all the hype I created for the Nationals, it ends here. I don’t think anyone will take down the Astros in the pursuit to the World Series crown. In a league full of great teams and then some very bad teams, the Astros sit on top of the rest. They have the pitching, the hitting and the fielding. They have star power and several players primed for breakout performances this postseason. It creates the perfect blend for World Series Champions.

World Series Winner: Houston Astros.

2019-20 NFL Predictions

From this day forward, we will not have another Sunday without football for another 22 weeks. Man, that feels great to say.

I think I can speak for most football fans too when I say one of the best parts of the football season is managing fantasy teams and making bets. We all want to gain bragging rights of winning our fantasy league and telling friends that in Week four, they predicted the Bengals to beat that 10-point spread. So lets get into the fun shall we?

AFC East: New England Patriots

Seems like the most straight-forward pick of them all. The Patriots have won the division 15 straight times. Every other team looks like a joke. Do we think the Jets could actually compete against the Patriots? Nada.

AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs

I think the Chiefs will take a step back this year. They lost a couple key defensive players in Dee Ford and Justin Houston. But the Chiefs still have a very good roster and I’m not sure if the Los Angeles Chargers have what it takes to jump the Chiefs this year. They will be without Melvin Gordon for at least the start of the season due to a holdout. The Chargers still have a ton of talent without him, but I think Andy Reid and the Chiefs’ defense are a tick better than the Chargers, so edge goes to Chiefs.

AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers

The AFC North has three teams in the Steelers, Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens that can hold their ground against the rest of the league with the Steelers and Browns a little better than the Ravens. At this point in time, I’m not 100% sold on the Browns being that much better than the rest and if both the Browns and the Steelers end up in that 10-11 win range, I give the Steelers the slight edge due to their history of success.

AFC South: Houston Texans

With the retirement of Andrew Luck, the AFC South showcases a lot of mediocrity. All of these teams could end up in the 8-8 range. But I like Deshaun Watson and Bill O’Brien better than the rest and even though I think the Jacksonville Jaguars still pose a threat after finishing 5-11 last year, I think the Texans end up a nod better than mediocre, which could win this division.

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys

Am I crazy to like the Cowboys? They have the quarterback, the running back, the offensive line and a not-so terrible defense. Philadelphia doesn’t have many holes in its game either, so this could ultimately become a coin flip between the two.

NFC West: Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are my upset team this season. Although the Seahawks’ schedule hurts them, every other teams in the division play the same teams too. The Los Angeles Rams still look like a solid team and could ultimately get back to the Super Bowl. However, I feel like the Seahawks’ coaching unit can grip-it-and-rip-it with this year’s cast of characters and if they end up with the same record as the Rams, I give the Seahawks the tie-breaker, which puts them in first.

NFC North: Green Bay Packers

I think the feud between Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy severely hurt an otherwise good Packers team last year. This year’s squad has retooled some, return the always MVP-threat Rodgers and boast a team that has a shot at taking down the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings. I am selling high on the Bears and buying low on the Packers.

NFC South: New Orleans Saints

The team that should have been in the Super Bowl. I think the Saints are the best team in the NFC. They have a great coach, strong quarterback, some good offensive weapons and a legitimate defense. There’s nothing to say that the Saints couldn’t find themselves the division winner and find a place in the Super Bowl this season.

AFC Wild Cards: Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Chargers.

The AFC is rather weak this season. The Chargers seem like the favorite and the second team will most likely be either the Browns or the Ravens. I like the offensive weapons that the Browns have, which will probably get them into the wild card playoffs.

NFC Wild Cards: Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams

Both the Eagles and Rams have solid all-around teams. Like I said, I’m selling high on the Bears and don’t think they will find themselves back in the playoffs this season after getting a division winner’s schedule. I like two all-around teams making it to the wild card playoffs in the NFC.

Super Bowl: New England Patriots over New Orleans Saints

I feel like the majority of experts have picked this matchup for the last three years. Call me a homah with this Patriots pick, but I don’t see any real competition in the AFC and the Saints seem like the best team in the NFC. Why not pit the two best teams against each other in the championship game? In a chess match, which is what the Super Bowl usually becomes, I will take the greatest coach of all time nine out of 10 times to win it.

Statistically Replacing Rick Porcello

The Boston Red Sox will have to manage two things this offseason: the free agency of Rick Porcello and a seemingly tight-as-ever payroll. The Red Sox have committed about $240 million to players this season, which puts the team in the 42% tax rate and sets them up to operate at a net loss again this season. Because of this, it makes sense to move Porcello, an inconsistent pitcher making $21.12 million per year. It would save the team approximately $9.4 million if they moved him now (Porcello makes about $130,000 a game, which means he has earned approximately $11.7 million of his $21.12 million salary) and also recuperate the team's farm system. However, this is the Boston Red Sox who can afford to pay Pablo Sandoval over $15 million a year to play for another team and can afford to operate aggressively, unlike a team such as the Tampa Bay Rays. This also doesn't mention that the team needs to add at least one starter to remain competitive, never mind lose one.

By signing Nathan Eovaldi, and after reading this column by Rob Bradford, it’s all but certain that the Red Sox will allow Porcello to return next season. However, the purpose of this article is not to lecture on how the Red Sox should trade away Porcello to recuperate prospects and retain money, nor state the Red Sox's possible intention insert Eovaldi as the fourth starter in 2020. The purpose of this article is to remind everyone that even with the return of Eovaldi to the rotation now and into the future, the Red Sox still need pitching help. And if the Red Sox won't have Porcello back, not that they should either, they still need pitching help. And statistically, there are much better options out there for a fraction of the price.

I got this idea after reading Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller’s book The Only Rule is it has to Work. I consider Lindbergh and Miller as Godfather’s of statistical baseball analysis. They're two minds at the forefront of how the game of baseball that we know today where starters relieve openers, thousands of shifts occur each year and closers no longer pitch just the ninth inning, but in the highest leverage situation possible. I recommend this book not only as a story about baseball, but also for baseball fanatics who want to read about the inception of the game of baseball how we know it today.

This book and their podcast, Effectively Wild, has made me pay more attention to advanced statistics such as FIP and ERA+ than I previously had. They have inspired my belief that undervalued players are everywhere and if the Oakland A's could use Scott Hatteberg to replace Jason Giambi or if a bunch of baseball nerds like myself can use advanced stats to dominate independent baseball, the Red Sox definitely have room to adapt in this new era. Porcello, who currently has an 89 ERA+, 4.53 FIP , 10 H/9 and 2.8 BB/9 (an average ERA+ is 100, while a 4.53 FIP is like having a 4.53 ERA), is the first culprit. Albeit owning a Cy Young trophy, Porcello has been one of the most inconsistent yet consistent pitchers on the Red Sox staff. He's good for 33 starts every year, but those starts aren't necessarily good ones. If the team is paying $21.12 million for a former Cy Young winner with a 6-7 record and a 5.33 ERA this season to go along with a 4.31 lifetime ERA, there must be a better return on investment somewhere in the league. I’ve done the math on next year’s free agency class and came up with a couple of candidates.

Jhoulys Chacin

Jhoulys Chacin is an intriguing option. Chacin dominated early-on in his career while pitching in hitter-friendly Coors Field for the Colorado Rockies. In 2010, he pitched to a 3.28 ERA and a 9 K/9 rate with a 142 ERA+ and 1.27 WHIP. He went 38-48 in six years in Colorado, which does not reflect a pitcher who also had a 3.78 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 120 ERA+ and 4.03 FIP even after a tumultuous 2014 riddled with injuries that led to his release from the organization. He has since worked his way back to the Major Leagues after signing a couple different Minor League deals and has posted back-to-back seasons with at least 10 wins, 32 starts and an ERA+ of over 100 before his down-year this season. In 35 starts in 2018 for the Milwaukee Brewers, Chacin went 15-8 with a 1.16 WHIP, 118 ERA+ and 4.03 FIP. Chacin’s historical performance indicates that he’s better than his current 3-9 record, 5.40 ERA and 83 ERA+. Chacin is making only $6.75 million this season. He is a prime example of undervaluation based on advanced statistics that could outperform Porcello fractions of the cost. General Manager Dave Dombrowski has shown willingness to dish out money to pitchers with an injury history too when he gave Eovaldi $68 million over four years.

Gio Gonzalez

Gio Gonzalez might be one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game, probably because he is a change-up pitcher in a slider-dominate game. Gonzalez made $14 million at his peak with the Washington Nationals where he went 86-65 with a 3.62 ERA, 8.7 K/9 rate and a 1.31 WHIP along with a 112 ERA+ and 3.45 FIP in seven years with the team. After being forced to sign a Minor League deal with the New York Yankees when no team showed interest in signing him to a long-term deal, Gonzalez later signed with the Brewers upon his release from the Yankees, where he has pitched to a 2-1 record and 3.19 ERA in six starts to go along with a 142 ERA+ and 3.23 FIP before going on the injury list with a dead arm. Gonzalez comes with an injury risk, but yet again proves that he can outperform Porcello at a fraction of a cost. After seeing the market for Gonzalez this past offseason, paired with the fact that next year’s starting pitching free agency class looks weak, I can picture him getting a deal similar to Rich Hill, where he signed a one-year, $6 million deal with the Oakland A’s after pitching extremely well for the Red Sox upon his return to the Majors after a stint in independent baseball.

Adam Wainwright

Let’s be clear: Adam Wainwright will never return to his dominant-self prior to all the injuries he faced, including Tommy John surgery. Even if Wainwright won’t return to a state where he can strikeout over 200 batters in over 200 innings with a sub-3.00 ERA and a 155 ERA+, he has still been a decent pitcher post injuries and into his elder years. So far this season, Wainwright is 5-7 with a 4.31 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 87.2 innings with a 98 ERA+ and 4.51 FIP. Not great, but it mimics Porcello’s career stat line (4.31 ERA, a 6.6 K/9 rate, a 100 ERA+ and 4.05 FIP) and at 38-years old, he will come at an extreme discount (Wainwright will make only $2 million this season). The thing that will stand in the way of a possible Wainwright signing is his Cardinals-lifer status. If he plans on pitching in 2020, he most likely will pitch for the Cardinals or retire.

Would the Triple Crown Award have Helped J.D. Martinez Win the MVP-Award?

     After the Boston Red Sox signed J.D. Martinez last offseason, the team’s offense went from last in the American League in home runs, second-to-last in slugging percentage and 11^th out of 15 teams in on-base plus slugging (OPS) to first in batting average, slugging, OPS, runs and sixth in home runs. The addition of Martinez, the only major addition to the team’s lineup who also produced 43 home runs and 130 RBI along with a stat line of .330/.402/.629, led many to believe that Martinez had revitalized the Red Sox lineup and brought them from worst to first in most major categories. Although Mookie Betts, who eventually won the American League Most Valuable Player award, led the league in runs, batting average, slugging and finished second in on-base percentage, one can perfectly validate that the addition of Martinez put the Red Sox over the hump. The addition of Martinez was like the addition of Curt Schilling back in 2004. The Red Sox had Pedro Martinez, an ace, but a significant upgrade to their No. 2 starter ultimately put the team over the threshold and into the title of World Series Champions.

            This left fans and I in outcry when they found out Martinez, who many thought would win the MVP award, was not even a finalist for the award. 

JD Martinez not being a finalist for AL MVP is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever seen in my life

— Steve Perrault (@Steve_Perrault) November 5, 2018

Ok so let me get this straight. JD Martinez was left off the ballot for the 3 finalists for AL MVP. Jose Ramirez made it over him

JD Martinez:
BA: .330
HR: 43
RBI's: 130

Jose Ramirez:
BA: .270
HR: 39
RBI's: 105

Does anyone else see the issue here? FIX THIS ISSUE

— Willie J. (@wvizoso411) November 6, 2018

In the era of shifts, launch angles and “home run or bust” mentality, Martinez bucks the trend. An all-around hitter, the Red Sox hadn’t seen a player hit at least 40 home runs, 100 RBIs and .300 in a season since Manny Ramirez did so back in 2004. Even after an historic performance in an era of baseball founded on this “home run or bust” mentality, and after finishing second in two out of three triple crown categories while finishing first in the third, Martinez finished fourth in the AL MVP voting.

            Martinez deserves applause for finishing second in two triple crown categories and first in the third. But what if Martinez had finished first in all three categories, making him the first player to win the triple crown since Miguel Cabrera did so in 2012. Would that have made a difference in the voting, ultimately propelling Martinez into first place?

            Out of 12 major league players that have won the triple crown award, seven have won the MVP award for their respective league. Sixty-three percent of triple crown winners have won the MVP award for that season when factoring in the 1922 season when the national league had no MVP honored but had Rogers Hornsby win the triple crown award. Every player since 1956 that has won the triple crown also won the MVP award for their respective league. The voting wasn’t even close in each of those cases either.

            In 2012, Cabrera took home 22 out of 28 first place votes and finished 81 points higher than second-place finisher Mike Trout. The separation gets more and more going down the list. In 1967, Carl Yastrzemski took home all but one first place vote and out-paced second-place finisher Harmon Killebrew by 114 points. In 1996, triple crown winner Frank Robinson earned all 20 first-place votes with a 127-point gap between first and second place. In 1956, triple crown winner Mickey Mantle earned all 24 first-place votes and finished 150 points higher than second-place finisher and teammate Yogi Berra. Yes, I worked backwards which means that the gap is closing between triple crown winners and MVP winners, but winning the triple crown, after leading all three categories at one point during the season, would have helped Martinez. But would it have mattered?

            In the last 10 years, within the American League, the player that ranked highest in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) has won the award six out of 10 times, or 60 percent of the time. This makes sense because, if WAR measures the value of a player over another, then the leader in the category should win the award. For people that believe in statistics only, they preach this approach and it shows. Since 2013, the year where many analysts and voters argued between Miguel Cabrera, the league’s best all-around hitter and Mike Trout, the American League’s WAR leader winning the award because of that argument, the American League WAR-leader has won the award four-out-of-five times. The only one to win the MVP-award during that time and not lead the league in WAR was Josh Donaldson, who had almost identical offensive numbers to WAR-leader Mike Trout. Trout had a better WAR because of his defense. He went the entire season without committing an error while Donaldson committed 18 errors in 2015.

            Martinez might be baseball’s best overall hitter. In an era of baseball centered around the idea that hitters must hit a home run to get the ball by the defensive shift, Martinez played the role of all-around hitter, like Manny Ramirez did in 2004, or like Mantle in the 50s and 60s, or even (dare I say) Barry Bonds of the 90s. If Martinez won the triple crown, would he have won the MVP award as well? If the WAR statistic is around, no one will know.

NFL Pick 'em: Week Four

Short week last week led my to posting my picks without any explanations. In the end, I did just alright, going 10-6 which brings me to 26-21-2 on the year. As an expert on the Pick ‘em, this record requires me to step it up in week four. With a couple different bye weeks, I’m expecting this week to be my best yet. If you follow along, you too, should reap the rewards. Onto the picks (side note: I started the week off 1-0 thanks to picking the Rams over the Vikings):

Cincinnati at Atlanta

The Bengals (or are they the Bungles?) will play without Joe Mixon and a possibly hurt A.J. Green. This Bengals team has multiple questions marks while the Falcons have multiple offensive weapons in Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman and the emergence of Calvin Ridley and Tevin Coleman. Even without Freeman, this team has shown explosive offensive power.

Pick: Atlanta

Tampa Bay at Chicago:

We don’t know what we will get from this game. While Ryan Fitzpatrick has been an offensive powerhouse, he has also gone from four touchdowns in one week to five interceptions the next week. So I always approach his performance wearily. The Bears have a potent defensive rush and can bring on the sacks. I expect the pressure to get to Fitzpatrick.

Pick: Chicago

Detroit at Dallas:

Both teams have less than stellar rosters this year, but the Lions are coming off of an impressive win against the New England Patriots while the Cowboys are coming off of a loss where they scored only 13 points. This will leave many thinking the Lions will win this game. But make no mistake, the Lions team has had numerous problems outside of the one game where they dominated the Patriots’ biggest weakness.

Pick: Dallas

Buffalo at Green Bay

The Minnesota Vikings’ poor play last week left many thinking the Bills have the ability to take down top opponents. Again, watch that game. It was more about Kirk Cousins and his inability to complete a pass while also committing what seems like one hundred mistakes. Aaron Rodgers should roll into this one and stomp on the Bills.

Pick: Green Bay

Philadelphia at Tennessee

This might be the hardest game to predict. The Eagles will have virtually no run game in this one, while the Titans had an impressive win over Jacksonville last week. This will come down to if Carson Wentz can beat the Titan’s secondary.

Pick: Philadelphia

Houston at Indianapolis

At this point, I’ve overrated the Colts. I think I have picked them every week so far. Still, the train keeps rolling. Andrew Luck faces questions based on his arm strength while Deshaun Watson’s question marks are in his comeback from an ACL injury. I’ll take arm strength over an ACL injury in this one.

Pick: Indianapolis

Miami at New England

We’re living in an upside down world. New England is 1-2 and the Dolphins are 3-0. Surely, the Patriots won’t start off 1-3 while the Dolphins remain undefeated, right?

Pick: New England

New York Jets at Jacksonville

Blake Bortles is terrible. The Jets had a good showing last week on Thursday night football. But then again, that was against the Cleveland Browns and they still lost. This Jets team has a lot of problems right now.

Pick: Jacksonville

Cleveland at Oakland

This game will have a lot of eyes. Between Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry and the Browns’ offense against Jon Gruden trying to get his first win, I like this matchup. I think Gruden finds a way to get a win against this Browns team.

Pick: Oakland

Seattle at Arizona

Everybody predicted the Seahawks to fall this season. But with this game, I think the Seahawks find a way to defeat an Arizona team with a lot of offensive problems.

Pick: Seattle

New Orleans at New York Giants

This game will probably end in a shootout with both running backs putting up massive yards. Even though I think the Giants have a better team than last year, I can’t see them taking down the Saints’ attack.

Pick: New Orleans

San Francisco at Los Angeles Chargers

The Giants are without Jimmy G in this one and the rest of the season. The Chargers have an underrated offense between Phillip Rivers and Melvin Gordon. I expect Gordon to rush for over 100 yards and a couple touchdowns and lift the Chargers to victory

Pick: Los Angeles Chargers

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

While the Steelers have been dysfunctional this season, they found a way to defeat Tampa Bay. Baltimore is a similar team to Tampa Bay. Plus, this is a divisional game, a rivalry and the Steelers are at home.

Pick: Pittsburgh

Kansas City at Denver

Andy Reid is doing what he normally does. His team is off to the best start in the NFL under their quarterback of the future, Patrick Mahomes. Although Kansas City won’t keep this pace up all season, they should continue to keep pace against the Broncos.

Pick: Kansas City

High School Picks: Week Three

Photo via Google.com

In week two, I improved upon my 11-8 record and I came four points shy of predicting the final score of Northampton-Smith Voc. (I had 42-10 Northampton. The final score was 42-6). Onto week three.

Last week’s record: 12-4

Overall record: 23-12

Putnam 18, South Hadley 8

Putnam has played some of the best all-around defense this season. While South Hadley isn’t as bad as their 0-2 record and eight total points, I think Putnam’s defense will prevail in this matchup.

Frontier 21, Palmer 18

Frontier proved themselves when they defeated Greenfield last week. I think Frontier still has what it takes to win their conference and make the playoffs, so I’m going with them over Palmer.

Mount Greylock 21, Belchertown 18

I think this could go either way. I’m picking Mount Greylock because they have Michael Wellspeak, who has proven to be quite the quarterback this year. Although the numbers might not be the best, Wellspeak knows how to run this team.

Easthampton 26, Franklin Tech 14

Expect more of the Easthampton team that defeated Mahar last week than the one that lost to Taconic in week one. Easthampton might have the best receiver in the area in Quentin Baker-Cisero. Surely that’s a stretch, but you get my point.

East Longmeadow 26, Agawam 14

East Longmeadow defeated Pittsfield 27-6 last week and are one of the better teams in western Mass. They should take care of Agawam.

Weston 35, Monument Mountain 12

Monument Mountain faces north football’s Weston this week and it won’t end up pretty for them.

Central 50, West Springfield 34

Central scored 61 points against St. John’s last week. Sixty-one points. Six. Zero. That’s a lot against arguably the best team in Mass.

Amherst 28, Ludlow 20

Amherst shut out Belchertown last week, a better team than Ludlow.

Wahconah 42, Chicopee 18

Wahconah shut out a Taconic team that scored 74 points in week one. They also average 44.5 points per game. Connor Noyes should run all over Chicopee in this game.

Athol 26, Mahar 20

Athol has a freshman at quarterback, but they have a better team than Mahar. Overall, I like Athol’s offense in this one.

Lee 25, Drury 6

Drury has really played well this season, which I didn’t expect. But Lee has been the better team these first two weeks, so I think Lee finds a way to defeat Drury.

Longmeadow 31, Northampton 27

Northampton had a commanding win last week. But Longmeadow defeated a strong West Springfield team, 43-20.  Longmeadow is proving themselves as one of the best teams in western Mass. so far this season.

Westfield 28, Commerce 16

I like Westfield’s run game. They have several good options to hand the ball off too, which has led to a 2-0 start. I like Westfield in this game.

Holyoke 25, Pittsfield 22

I like the fight in this year’s Holyoke team. They came back and defeated Putnam in week one and then scored 40 points against Chicopee. They might end up as the most underrated team this season.

Hoosac Valley 22, Chicopee Comp 20

I like Hoosac Valley’s defense. Even though they have played well this season, I find it hard to pick them over Chicopee Comp’s Nathaniel LePage, who has thrown for 513 yards and seven touchdowns in two games. I think Hoosac Valley finds a way on Friday though. One player can’t win it all for his team.

Minnechaug 38, Taconic 26

I like Minnechaug to take western Mass. this season and Taconic won’t stop that this week. MInnechaug in a landslide.

Greenfield 26, Turners Fall 20

If you like running backs, you will like this game. I would set the over/under on touches for this game at 50. Greenfield has the better run game.

Mohawk 24, Smith Voc. 20

Smith Voc. has had tough luck in each of their first two games this season. I think Mohawk has a little more talent than Smith Voc., which should show late in the game when these two teams are tied. Mohawk should come away with the win if that scenario plays out.

Weston 35, Monument Mountain 12

Monument Mountain faces north football’s Weston this week and it won’t end up pretty for them.

Pathfinder 26, Ware 20

I have found these teams two of the hardest picks each week. I really feel that both of their games can go either way each week. Ware had a good week last week, so I’m assuming that that comes down this week.

Bonus pick: Due to obligations this weekend, I need to get my NFL picks earlier than Sunday morning. Last week I went 7-8-1. Ouch. That brings me to 16-14-2 on the year. I had Cleveland last night (ballsy I know). For the rest of my picks, I’m going Atlanta over New Orleans, Kansas City over San Francisco, Miami over Oakland, Minnesota over Buffalo, Indianapolis over Philadelphia, Green Bay over Washington, Carolina over Cincinnati, Jacksonville over Tennessee, Denver over Baltimore, NY Giants over Houston, Los Angeles Rams over Los Angeles Chargers, Chicago over Arizona, Seattle over Dallas, New England over Detroit and Pittsburgh over Tampa Bay.

NFL Pick 'em: Week Two

Tyreek Hill

I started off slow in week one, predicting only nine games right. With a surprise tie, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers surprise win and a terrible showing by the Detroit Lions, I can validate myself, right?

I also started off the week 0-1 thanks to a 34-23 smacking by the Cincinnati Bengals on the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night (yup, had the Ravens winning that one). Not the best start to my season, but I’m still getting warmed up and ready for the long haul. The season is a race not a sprint. I’ll cash out this week.

            Last week’s record: 9-6-1

            Overall record: 9-6-1

Carolina at Atlanta

Atlanta enters this matchup as the better team. Still, I think Cam Newton is the better quarterback. Both teams face multiple injuries and Newton’s ability to move the ball should worry the Falcons. Plus, the Panthers aren’t all that bad on defense.

Pick: Carolina

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo

You know, I don’t think the Bills will have as bad of an outing as they had in week one in this matchup. Still, the Chargers have more talent, a better defense and the better quarterback. I picture the Chargers giving the Bills a hard time at the front line.

Pick: Los Angeles Chargers

Minnesota at Green Bay

My pick for this game rests more in an injured Aaron Rodgers than the Vikings’ ability to defeat the Packers on the road. If Rodgers plays hurt in this game, and even more so if he doesn’t play at all, then the team has to rely on its running backs. I can’t picture the Packers defeating the Vikings with their ground game.

Pick: Minnesota

If only this came in purple

Houston at Tennessee

This game might end up as the closest affair when it comes to the scoreboard. Two mobile quarterbacks face-off against one-another. Marcus Mariota seems like he is fading, Deshaun Watson seems poised to perform better than he did last week. I expect Watson do get the job done late in the game because of that.

Pick: Houston

Cleveland at New Orleans

The Browns are better than they were one year ago. Even after getting better and tying the Pittsburgh Steelers in week one (still not a win), I think the Saints will dominate this game. The Saints had a bad week and they should fix that for their matchup on Sunday.

Pick: New Orleans

Miami at New York Jets

I am going to take the Jets in this game, not because of their 48-17 win over the Detroit Lions in week one however. Realistically, these two teams are pretty much the same. If this game featured the Dolphins as the home team, I would have taken them.

Pick: New York Jets

Kansas City at Pittsburgh

I picked the Chiefs in week one because of their ability to win in week one. This matchup could end up a shootout because of the two team’s play styles. I couldn’t decide on this game without going back-and-forth, so I’m picking the Chiefs because they tend to start their season off with some kind of winning streak.

Pick: Kansas City

This man prevails again

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay

Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 417 yards and four touchdowns in Tampa Bay’s win over the New Orleans Saints in week one. Then again, Fitzpatrick also threw six interceptions against the Kansas City Chiefs back in 2016.

Pick: Philadelphia

Indianapolis at Washington

We witnessed the rebirth of Adrian Peterson last week as he rushed for 96 yards and one touchdown in week one. The Colts were the seventh worst team against the run in 2017. Joe Mixon found a way to run against this defense in week one. To go along with Washington’s new toy at quarterback, the Redskins should take this home game.

Pick: Washington

Arizona at Los Angeles Rams

The Cardinals will play better in week two. Last week was the aberration to their team’s skill. Still, the Cardinals have their struggle while the Rams might end up as the best team in the NFC this season.

Pick: Los Angeles Rams

Detroit at San Francisco

Matt Patricia did not look good in his head coaching debut, losing to the Jets, 48-17. This game comes down to Matthew Stafford vs Jimmy Garoppolo. I think this game will surprise people on how close it ends up, but I like the home team to win.

Pick: San Francisco

Oakland at Denver

Case Keenum looked good in week one, throwing for 329 yards and three touchdowns despite throwing for three interceptions. Expect the Raiders to run the ball, but against Von Miller, I don’t like those odds for the Raiders. Too bad Jon Gruden might start his season off 0-2.

Pick: Denver

New England at Jacksonville

Everybody loves the Jaguars in this game. I understand why, the Patriots don’t do well against running backs like Leonard Fournette. This team, in 2017, held a 20-10 lead during the AFC championship over the Patriots. People want to hate the Patriots in this one, but I expect Bill Belichick to find a way to get it done on Sunday.

Pick: New England

New York Giants at Dallas

I picked the Giants to defeat Jacksonville in week one. I came close, but no cigar. Really wish I got that one. But anyway, I like the Saquan Barkley vs. Ezekiel Elliot narrative. The Giants like to pressure the front line, so Dak Prescott might throw a little more than usual. I’m taking the Cowboys in this one because I think they have a little more confidence. They should find a way in this one.

Pick: Dallas

Seattle at Chicago

The Bears gave Green Bay a scare in week one, plus they also have a solid mix of potentially potent players. They have Khalil Mack now, which has people drooling. Mitch Trubinsky looked decent and they have a couple good running backs. But is this team really going to take down Russell Wilson and company?

Pick: Seattle