Astros-Rays Breakdown: Gerrit Cole Dominates

          

  

     The success of a 107-win team that features some of the best talent across all parts of the diamond ultimately came down to the success of one player: Gerrit Cole.

            In two starts in the ALDS, Cole went 2-0 and pitched 15.2 innings, struck out 25 batters allowed only six hits and held batters to a .118/.167/.196 slash line. That my friends, is domination.

            Against pitchers not named Gerrit Cole, the Rays actually faired kind of well. They got to Ryan Pressly for two runs on four hits in 2/3 innings of work. They scored 10 runs on 12 hits, including six extra base hits and four home runs, in game three. They struck for 13 hits in a 4-1 win game four. I would classify that as good hitting. But then came Cole in game five.

            Cole pitched eight innings in game five, struck out 10 batters and allowed only two hits. He threw 74 strikes on 107 pitches, a 69% strike ratio, and according to baseball-reference.com, Cole forced 52 swings and misses combined in his two ALDS appearances. I hope this stresses how much Cole dominated the Rays in this series.

            The Astros also held Austin Meadows and Avisail Garcia, the Rays’ top two hitters, to a combined 8-for-36 (.222 average) with only two extra base hits despite four RBIs between the two. The two hitters that propelled the Rays lineup for most of the season kind of fell flat during the postseason. It isn’t the worse production, especially for the amount of runs they created, but when considering the entirety of the team’s offense, I don’t like the overall production from the Rays.

In six games and 195 at-bats, the Rays hit to a slash line of .231/.298/.431. That’s especially troubling when knowing Willy Adames batted .385 in 13 at-bats with two home runs and one double and three runs. The Rays had pockets of offensive production, but it was a generally scarce showing. Most of that probably comes from the dominance of Gerrit Cole as I explained at the top of the article, because the team did hit pretty well when not facing Cole. But these don’t have to be mutually exclusive. The Rays’ hitting stunk against Cole and they faced Cole often. He was the main reason why the Astros won the ALDS.

Cardinals-Braves Breakdown: Bullpen Usage at Fault Again?

Like I did with the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins playoff series, I have done so again with the St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves. This Cardinals-Braves series was much harder to data mine however. Unlike the Yankees and Twins, these two teams matched up extremely well on paper. No team had a sure advantage over the other and it showed too. Every game except game five was decided in the late innings and by three runs or less. One could theoretically saw the Cardinals won because of complete luck. Yadier Molina, who hit .143 in the series, got ahold of a fastball over the plate to tie game four and later got just enough of another ball to win the game. Nothing too statistical about his two at-bats other than pitch location. Same goes for Mike Foltynewicz inability to hit the corners in game five, especially after he pitched seven shutout innings in game two. He missed by fractions of an inch in most cases. But I did find a couple things that did turned the tides in favor of the Cardinals. The Braves failed to capitalize on a couple bullpen matches worth mentioning because they could have caused a win in game one, which would have theoretically caused a Braves sweep.

The Braves held a 3-1 lead in the top of the eighth in an eventual 7-6 loss in game one. In this 3-1 situation, the Braves went to Luke Jackson out of the bullpen. Generally, this makes sense because of conventional wisdom. Jackson has pitched mostly in high-leverage situations during the regular season. Humans develop habits and breaking those habits can sometimes lead to lower productivity. Habit would dictate that Jackson enters in the eighth and then Mark Melancon, the closer, would enter for the ninth to earn the save.

Statistically, this decision doesn't make much sense though. Jackson has drastic lefty/righty splits. Lefties hit to a slash line of .157/.222/.324 against Jackson, while righties hit .331/.396/.449. They also have driven in 31 runs, versus 13 runs by lefties. In game one, Jackson faced four righties before facing a single lefty, in which he gave up three hits, including one home run. Just by looking at the splits, it didn't make much sense to use Jackson except for conventional wisdom and the habit the team had created. It gets a little worse though. Jackson entered the game with four days rest, which you can probably guess, is when Jackson pitches the worst. On four days rest, in 2019, Jackson has pitched four times and allowed hitters to go 5-for-14 with one home run and four runs scored, a .357 batting average against. In order, from zero days rest to three days rest against Jackson, batters have hit: .329, .253, .211 and .185. That holds up throughout his career too, where, in order, hitters have hit: .302, .309, .194, .258, .339. Not the best usage of Jackson, or at least the best matchup to reduce the most amount of risk, especially when the Braves willingly used Sean Newcomb in that game. Newcomb had held righties to a slash line of just .230/.306/.393, which drops to .217/.285/.363 when pitching with no one on base. Say the Braves went straight to Newcomb and win that game. It becomes a three-game sweep and they don't allow the Cardinals to do what they did in games four and five.

Other than that one decision, this series seemingly came down to a hanging pitch or an outcome so impossible to predict because the data suggests that it shouldn’t have happened, like Foltynewicz’s inability to hit corners in game five. Game four came down to the fact that Molina got a hold of a fastball over the plate that tied the game. He later got ahold of another ball just enough to send it deep enough to score a run. Otherwise, the Braves seemingly were in control of the series outside of these three cases. Interesting how, in a series with thousands of inputs, comes down to three results, two almost impossible to predict.

Yankees-Twins Breakdown: Twins Failed to Minimize Opportunity and Faced the Consequences

          

  

     Every week, Greg Bedard, arguably the best Patriots writer out there, writes an article breaking down the Patriots game from the previous week. He runs through the film, goes through each play and then picks apart what when right and wrong and highlights some top plays that led to the outcome of the game. His coverage inspired me to do so for the MLB 2019 playoffs.

            Doing a thorough analysis of each series requires a little more than just skimming through the box scores and deciding X went wrong or X went right and therefore decided the series, so in doing so, it might take a little longer than the next day to do so for each series. That is my hope, to get to each series. Baseball is a little different than football too. Although formation is important in baseball, a series is less about the angle a defender took to a ball or location of a pitch than it is for a football game. Most of the analysis feels like it will come from certain appearances or usage than a pitch. Without further ado, let’s break down the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins, a series that ended in a Yankees sweep.

            New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins

            In this sweep, the Twins seemed like no match for the Yankees. They won each game by four or more runs and utterly dominated games one and two with their offense. It doesn’t take a rocket science to understand that the Yankees went into the series with an elite offense, outranking at least in the top five in most offensive categories and above the league average in every category. That carried into the postseason. With postseason teams averaging four games in the post season, the Yankees played only three and outhit the average in some of the most important categories (23 runs vs. playoff average 16, .293/.403/.525 slash line to a playoff average of .239/.313/.409). So, the Yankees held the advantage over the Twins just by stepping into the batter’s box.

            What interests me though, is how bad the Twins’ pitching, who ranked as one of the better staffs during the regular season, pitched throughout the series. They had the worst pitching out of any playoff team, ranking last in ERA (7.56), last in BAA (.293), 5.67 walks per game vs a playoff average 3.25, and 7.67 runs allowed per game vs. a playoff average four. I chose these stats because they create an even playing field for all teams. If I compared total runs against, the Nationals gave up the most, but have also played the most games in the playoffs. Same with strikeouts, with the Twins striking out the least out of any divisional series team but also playing the least amount of games. The Twins bullpen was atrocious, which was surprising due to how good some of those pitchers were during the regular season. For instance, Tyler Duffey allowed four runs in just 1 2/3 innings after just 16 in 57.2 innings during the regular season (2.50 ERA). Zack Littell could only get one out in two appearances, allowing two runs after pitching to a 2.68 ERA in 37 innings and 29 appearances during the regular season.

            One matchup stuck out like a sore thumb in which I think explains what went wrong the most for the Twins in this series. In game one, down by only one run in going into the bottom of the sixth, so a pretty influential part of the game, the Twins went to Cody Stashak out of the bullpen. Stashak wasn’t the worst pitcher for that situation at first glance. In the regular season, Stashak had a 3.24 ERA, 3.01 FIP, and gave up only 0.4 walks per nine and struck out nine batter per nine. He had sported a 1.93 ERA in his last nine appearances (9.1 innings pitched during that span) while striking out 12. However, batters tend to hit Stashak hard. Batters hit Stashak at a .289 rate with 12 of 29 opponents’ hitting going for extra bases (.475 slugging). The Yankees had hit Stashak the hardest out of any team other team in baseball too. In only two innings of work against the Yankees, Stashak had given up four hits to the Yankees. Makes sense that the best hitting team would give Stashak troubles. To make matters worse, Stashak had troubles against the top half of opponent’s lineups. Against Stashak, opponent’s number one batter hit .273 with a .455 slugging percentage in 11 at-bats. Fourth and fifth hitters went a combined 11-for-27 with four doubles, one triple and one home run against Stashak. Who do the Twins use him against? DJ LeMahieu, the Yankees’ number one batter, who hits a home run to dead center field, followed another homer by Brett Gardner of Stashak to break the game open again at 7-4 Yankees. The Twins would not get any closer for the rest of the game.

            The same thing happened in game two when the Twins brought in Duffey to stop the bleeding going into the third inning, in which he then gave up four runs on two hits and one walk in a seven-run inning for the Yankees. Duffey was worse on the road than at home throughout the season and even if that doesn’t necessarily mean causation, because Duffey does have good numbers in many different situations, including in high leverage situations, it shows that the Twins’ bullpen just couldn’t execute against the best hitting team in baseball. Duffey should have been better statistically, but failed to locate pitches, giving the Yankees too much opportunity to strike. Even if the pitching staff minimized all the risk they could, their manager didn’t reduce risk enough on his end. He put his pitchers in some situations that come with added risk. Against the best hitting team in baseball, it makes sense that any opponent would have to minimize any opportunities for the Yankees to get ahead. The Twins failed at that and it resulted in a sweep.

2019 MLB Playoff Predictions

I still can’t believe that a team like the Red Sox, who had an almost 20-game winner, three players hit more than 30 home runs with a fourth that hit 29 and two players produce 100 RBIs and 100 runs, only wins 84 games. In business though, the cash cow doesn’t cause bankruptcy. Companies usually go under when they over invest. The little expenses start to add up and all of a sudden, they can’t afford the whole production. This is what seemingly happened to the Red Sox. They over paid for guys like Nathan Eovaldi, David Price and Steve Pierce and in return, handicapped themselves and let themselves without much ability to do anything this offseason if the Red Sox want to get under the luxury tax threshold. In return, we have a postseason without Boston baseball.

With October baseball set to begin without Boston, here are the official Lewis and Sports MLB Playoff Predictions.

AL Wild Card

Oakland A’s vs Tampa Bay Rays

In my Texas Rangers franchise, the Oakland A’s went through a reidentification process and renamed themselves the Oakland Beavers. Maybe that makes me biased, but the playoffs generally come down to the best pitching staff. The Indians began the playoff-bullpen archetype by employing Andrew Miller almost every night for multiple innings. Then the Astros took that and used starters as relievers, which Alex Cora then took to Boston. I think the Rays are better equipped for this new process, while the A’s might have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. All the Rays have to do is hit in this game, which is sometimes hard for them. I’ll take the Rays though.

NL Wild Card

Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers

To me, the Nationals have turned themselves into one of the most intriguing teams in the playoffs. Since the end of May, the Nationals have the best record (69-36 for a .657 winning percentage). I also feel like their trio of starters in Stephen Strasburg-Patrick Corbin-Max Scherzer make them better suited for a short series. In an otherwise mediocre season, the Brewers turned themselves into one of the hottest teams in baseball. This reminds me last of the Colorado Rockies’ home-away split. I like the matchup because of the recent success of both teams, but I will go with the more consistent Nationals. Lets just hope their bullpen holds up.

ALDS

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins

This series could turn into a slugfest. Neither team has exceptionally strong starting pitching but both teams have very good hitting. The biggest obstacle for the Yankees will be the loss of Domingo German. Still, I think Masahiro Tanaka will hold up, while the Yankees have 306 homers without most of their opening day lineup. I’m taking the Yankees in this slugfest.

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays

I don’t have much to contest here. I think the Astros have the best overall team in baseball and no team that takes them in this opening round has a true shot at beating the Astros in a best of five series. Facing Garret Cole-Justin Verlander-Zach Greinke makes it extremely hard for any team to take two-of-three, which is what it will ultimately take in facing this Astros team. I just don’t see it happening. Astros in this one.

NLDS

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals

Before the season ended, I looked for teams that had outside forces that one could say caused them to outperform. By this, I mean, the Red Sox had the Boston bombing in 2013, the Houston Astros had Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Teams generally play better when they’re playing for something greater than the game. I thought St. Louis might have had something like that, but I didn’t find anything relevant, which makes this all pointless other than for a shout out to organizational behavior. These two teams are eerily similar. They have a decent collection of hitters and pitchers and will bank on a few players to carry the rest of the team. St. Louis has an older roster with some more experience, so I like that over this young Braves team.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals

If this ends up true, this might become the best series of the postseason. Both teams rely on their starting pitching. The Dodgers have only a slight 4-3 advantage in the season series against the Nationals, which makes me feel better about believing that these teams are much closer than we think. They were built similarly, focusing on starting pitching. Generally, if I were to make a bet on this series, I would bet on the Dodgers. But I think the Nationals will make things competitive and probably have it in them to take down the Dodgers, so I will take the Nationals in this series.

ALCS

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees

I think we all expected this matchup. The Astros and Yankees were the two best teams in the American League and probably the two best teams in the MLB all season. I think losing Domingo German takes away the Yankees biggest ability to win games this postseason and even though the Yankees are more than one man, I take the consistency and potency of the Astros.

NLCS

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals

I don’t think you will see this matchup from many predictors. It will make it feel all the better when it happens though. Again, the Nationals seem like the better of the two teams in this matchup. They hit well and I think they will capitalize on any and all pitching that comes their way. As long as their bullpen holds up, the Nationals have a real shot at winning this matchup and getting to the World Series.

World Series

Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals

For all the hype I created for the Nationals, it ends here. I don’t think anyone will take down the Astros in the pursuit to the World Series crown. In a league full of great teams and then some very bad teams, the Astros sit on top of the rest. They have the pitching, the hitting and the fielding. They have star power and several players primed for breakout performances this postseason. It creates the perfect blend for World Series Champions.

World Series Winner: Houston Astros.

2019-20 NFL Predictions

From this day forward, we will not have another Sunday without football for another 22 weeks. Man, that feels great to say.

I think I can speak for most football fans too when I say one of the best parts of the football season is managing fantasy teams and making bets. We all want to gain bragging rights of winning our fantasy league and telling friends that in Week four, they predicted the Bengals to beat that 10-point spread. So lets get into the fun shall we?

AFC East: New England Patriots

Seems like the most straight-forward pick of them all. The Patriots have won the division 15 straight times. Every other team looks like a joke. Do we think the Jets could actually compete against the Patriots? Nada.

AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs

I think the Chiefs will take a step back this year. They lost a couple key defensive players in Dee Ford and Justin Houston. But the Chiefs still have a very good roster and I’m not sure if the Los Angeles Chargers have what it takes to jump the Chiefs this year. They will be without Melvin Gordon for at least the start of the season due to a holdout. The Chargers still have a ton of talent without him, but I think Andy Reid and the Chiefs’ defense are a tick better than the Chargers, so edge goes to Chiefs.

AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers

The AFC North has three teams in the Steelers, Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens that can hold their ground against the rest of the league with the Steelers and Browns a little better than the Ravens. At this point in time, I’m not 100% sold on the Browns being that much better than the rest and if both the Browns and the Steelers end up in that 10-11 win range, I give the Steelers the slight edge due to their history of success.

AFC South: Houston Texans

With the retirement of Andrew Luck, the AFC South showcases a lot of mediocrity. All of these teams could end up in the 8-8 range. But I like Deshaun Watson and Bill O’Brien better than the rest and even though I think the Jacksonville Jaguars still pose a threat after finishing 5-11 last year, I think the Texans end up a nod better than mediocre, which could win this division.

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys

Am I crazy to like the Cowboys? They have the quarterback, the running back, the offensive line and a not-so terrible defense. Philadelphia doesn’t have many holes in its game either, so this could ultimately become a coin flip between the two.

NFC West: Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are my upset team this season. Although the Seahawks’ schedule hurts them, every other teams in the division play the same teams too. The Los Angeles Rams still look like a solid team and could ultimately get back to the Super Bowl. However, I feel like the Seahawks’ coaching unit can grip-it-and-rip-it with this year’s cast of characters and if they end up with the same record as the Rams, I give the Seahawks the tie-breaker, which puts them in first.

NFC North: Green Bay Packers

I think the feud between Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy severely hurt an otherwise good Packers team last year. This year’s squad has retooled some, return the always MVP-threat Rodgers and boast a team that has a shot at taking down the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings. I am selling high on the Bears and buying low on the Packers.

NFC South: New Orleans Saints

The team that should have been in the Super Bowl. I think the Saints are the best team in the NFC. They have a great coach, strong quarterback, some good offensive weapons and a legitimate defense. There’s nothing to say that the Saints couldn’t find themselves the division winner and find a place in the Super Bowl this season.

AFC Wild Cards: Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Chargers.

The AFC is rather weak this season. The Chargers seem like the favorite and the second team will most likely be either the Browns or the Ravens. I like the offensive weapons that the Browns have, which will probably get them into the wild card playoffs.

NFC Wild Cards: Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams

Both the Eagles and Rams have solid all-around teams. Like I said, I’m selling high on the Bears and don’t think they will find themselves back in the playoffs this season after getting a division winner’s schedule. I like two all-around teams making it to the wild card playoffs in the NFC.

Super Bowl: New England Patriots over New Orleans Saints

I feel like the majority of experts have picked this matchup for the last three years. Call me a homah with this Patriots pick, but I don’t see any real competition in the AFC and the Saints seem like the best team in the NFC. Why not pit the two best teams against each other in the championship game? In a chess match, which is what the Super Bowl usually becomes, I will take the greatest coach of all time nine out of 10 times to win it.

Statistically Replacing Rick Porcello

The Boston Red Sox will have to manage two things this offseason: the free agency of Rick Porcello and a seemingly tight-as-ever payroll. The Red Sox have committed about $240 million to players this season, which puts the team in the 42% tax rate and sets them up to operate at a net loss again this season. Because of this, it makes sense to move Porcello, an inconsistent pitcher making $21.12 million per year. It would save the team approximately $9.4 million if they moved him now (Porcello makes about $130,000 a game, which means he has earned approximately $11.7 million of his $21.12 million salary) and also recuperate the team's farm system. However, this is the Boston Red Sox who can afford to pay Pablo Sandoval over $15 million a year to play for another team and can afford to operate aggressively, unlike a team such as the Tampa Bay Rays. This also doesn't mention that the team needs to add at least one starter to remain competitive, never mind lose one.

By signing Nathan Eovaldi, and after reading this column by Rob Bradford, it’s all but certain that the Red Sox will allow Porcello to return next season. However, the purpose of this article is not to lecture on how the Red Sox should trade away Porcello to recuperate prospects and retain money, nor state the Red Sox's possible intention insert Eovaldi as the fourth starter in 2020. The purpose of this article is to remind everyone that even with the return of Eovaldi to the rotation now and into the future, the Red Sox still need pitching help. And if the Red Sox won't have Porcello back, not that they should either, they still need pitching help. And statistically, there are much better options out there for a fraction of the price.

I got this idea after reading Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller’s book The Only Rule is it has to Work. I consider Lindbergh and Miller as Godfather’s of statistical baseball analysis. They're two minds at the forefront of how the game of baseball that we know today where starters relieve openers, thousands of shifts occur each year and closers no longer pitch just the ninth inning, but in the highest leverage situation possible. I recommend this book not only as a story about baseball, but also for baseball fanatics who want to read about the inception of the game of baseball how we know it today.

This book and their podcast, Effectively Wild, has made me pay more attention to advanced statistics such as FIP and ERA+ than I previously had. They have inspired my belief that undervalued players are everywhere and if the Oakland A's could use Scott Hatteberg to replace Jason Giambi or if a bunch of baseball nerds like myself can use advanced stats to dominate independent baseball, the Red Sox definitely have room to adapt in this new era. Porcello, who currently has an 89 ERA+, 4.53 FIP , 10 H/9 and 2.8 BB/9 (an average ERA+ is 100, while a 4.53 FIP is like having a 4.53 ERA), is the first culprit. Albeit owning a Cy Young trophy, Porcello has been one of the most inconsistent yet consistent pitchers on the Red Sox staff. He's good for 33 starts every year, but those starts aren't necessarily good ones. If the team is paying $21.12 million for a former Cy Young winner with a 6-7 record and a 5.33 ERA this season to go along with a 4.31 lifetime ERA, there must be a better return on investment somewhere in the league. I’ve done the math on next year’s free agency class and came up with a couple of candidates.

Jhoulys Chacin

Jhoulys Chacin is an intriguing option. Chacin dominated early-on in his career while pitching in hitter-friendly Coors Field for the Colorado Rockies. In 2010, he pitched to a 3.28 ERA and a 9 K/9 rate with a 142 ERA+ and 1.27 WHIP. He went 38-48 in six years in Colorado, which does not reflect a pitcher who also had a 3.78 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 120 ERA+ and 4.03 FIP even after a tumultuous 2014 riddled with injuries that led to his release from the organization. He has since worked his way back to the Major Leagues after signing a couple different Minor League deals and has posted back-to-back seasons with at least 10 wins, 32 starts and an ERA+ of over 100 before his down-year this season. In 35 starts in 2018 for the Milwaukee Brewers, Chacin went 15-8 with a 1.16 WHIP, 118 ERA+ and 4.03 FIP. Chacin’s historical performance indicates that he’s better than his current 3-9 record, 5.40 ERA and 83 ERA+. Chacin is making only $6.75 million this season. He is a prime example of undervaluation based on advanced statistics that could outperform Porcello fractions of the cost. General Manager Dave Dombrowski has shown willingness to dish out money to pitchers with an injury history too when he gave Eovaldi $68 million over four years.

Gio Gonzalez

Gio Gonzalez might be one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game, probably because he is a change-up pitcher in a slider-dominate game. Gonzalez made $14 million at his peak with the Washington Nationals where he went 86-65 with a 3.62 ERA, 8.7 K/9 rate and a 1.31 WHIP along with a 112 ERA+ and 3.45 FIP in seven years with the team. After being forced to sign a Minor League deal with the New York Yankees when no team showed interest in signing him to a long-term deal, Gonzalez later signed with the Brewers upon his release from the Yankees, where he has pitched to a 2-1 record and 3.19 ERA in six starts to go along with a 142 ERA+ and 3.23 FIP before going on the injury list with a dead arm. Gonzalez comes with an injury risk, but yet again proves that he can outperform Porcello at a fraction of a cost. After seeing the market for Gonzalez this past offseason, paired with the fact that next year’s starting pitching free agency class looks weak, I can picture him getting a deal similar to Rich Hill, where he signed a one-year, $6 million deal with the Oakland A’s after pitching extremely well for the Red Sox upon his return to the Majors after a stint in independent baseball.

Adam Wainwright

Let’s be clear: Adam Wainwright will never return to his dominant-self prior to all the injuries he faced, including Tommy John surgery. Even if Wainwright won’t return to a state where he can strikeout over 200 batters in over 200 innings with a sub-3.00 ERA and a 155 ERA+, he has still been a decent pitcher post injuries and into his elder years. So far this season, Wainwright is 5-7 with a 4.31 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 87.2 innings with a 98 ERA+ and 4.51 FIP. Not great, but it mimics Porcello’s career stat line (4.31 ERA, a 6.6 K/9 rate, a 100 ERA+ and 4.05 FIP) and at 38-years old, he will come at an extreme discount (Wainwright will make only $2 million this season). The thing that will stand in the way of a possible Wainwright signing is his Cardinals-lifer status. If he plans on pitching in 2020, he most likely will pitch for the Cardinals or retire.