How does Gordon Heyward's injury impact not only this season, but his career?

What happened to Gordon Heyward last night was gruesome. On a play you would see multiple times a game and probably hundreds of times throughout the course of the season, it's a terribly unlucky occurrence. Just extremely tough luck on such a routine play.

To the Celtics, this is devastating. Not only did you spend top dollar to bring Heyward into Boston, removing many parts of their roster to make way for not only him, but Kyrie Irving. Now, the team is left with a huge hole in the middle of their team and their production. With one of the youngest rosters in the NBA, there’s no one on this team that can produce to the level of what Heyward was going to bring. It devastates the Celtics’ chances of making it deep into the playoffs, probably their chances at earning the top seed in the East and leaves them wondering “Is this team good enough to compete without Heyward?” That’s just my two cents on Heyward’s injury in relation to the Celtics’ season.

What does this do for Heyward’s career however?

I wouldn’t call Heyward soft. He’s a tough competitor, great basketball player and has come a long way since his days at Butler. But analyze Heyward’s personality for a moment. He’s a doubter and worrier. He didn’t want to go far away from his family when he went off to college, wanting to always be close to his parents. He doubted himself a lot while playing for Butler (often times Stevens instilled confidence in Heyward. There are multiple stories out there on their relationship and how Stevens turned Heyward into the guy he is today). He always has looked towards others to make decisions. He’s a quiet, family first guy that that stands in the corner at parties. He loves his video games, once saying “I just want to play video games” in a press conference, competed in Halo tournaments for cash prizes while in college and even skipped out on school dances in high school to play Halo in his basement (look this stuff up I’m not making it up). Where all of this is heading is towards Heyward’s personality. Is he one to come back from this injury as if nothing had changed or is he one to always have that doubt in the back of his mind: will this cut to the basket affect my ankle? Can this potentially impact not only this season, but Heyward’s mind going forward? I do not doubt Heyward as a competitor. He’s extremely competitive. But to some people, it’s a factor. I know myself, if this happened to me, it would take years for me to fully accept playing basketball without any restrictions, not just physically but mentally.

And a little Red Sox spin on the matter because I love my Red Sox.

If Dave Dombrowski truly believes that a manager makes no difference on the performance of a team, take a look at Brad Stevens. Although in basketball, a coach is heavily involved in the play on the court due to the creation of plays, the ability to call timeouts when needed, defensive schemes, it goes on, all of that was icing on the cake as to what Stevens did with that team last night. Down 54-38 going into the halftime and clearly shaken by Heyward’s injury, Stevens rallied the troops to 33-18 third quarter and pulled them right back into the game, the lead and the positioning to win the game with the very last shot. There’s something to be said about the impact a manager has on their team. The Red Sox don’t need a guy that can take hits from the media, win games and be a good source of communication to the General Manager. They need a guy that can rally the troops on any given night as how Stevens did last night.

With Farrell gone, who's next?

You never really hope for someone to lose their job. It was time for a managerial change for the Boston Red Sox though.  Farrell did just enough to win regular season games, but a team with a $200 million payroll with top talent should be winning World Series. There are no excuses in this market and Farrell just wasn’t the right guy.

            So with Farrell gone, now what?

            This team still has a deep ethical problem. They have a bunch of guys that don’t take urgency and responsibility for certain situations. They need leaders and not guys like Dustin Pedroia who claims to be a leader but in reality are just open to talking to the media and fighting back. It’s a similar situation to 2004 when Nomar Garciaparra ran the team. They won games but the attitude was horrendous in the clubhouse because players were looking up to Nomar for guidance, a guy who deflects responsibility and was constantly mad.

            So the new manager’s task is to change this culture. You need a leader and someone willing to keep tabs on players and say “Hey that doesn’t fly in my clubhouse.” The first name that comes to mind is Alex Cora. A utility guy for the Red Sox from 2005 until 2008, Cora is highly respected within the game of baseball. He knows what it’s like to be a journeyman in baseball and takes nothing for granted. He’s a guy I think will be the second in the running to front-runner Brad Ausmus for the job. Cora is the guy I would like to see.

            They also need to change up the core of this team. Andrew Benintendi and Mookie Betts can obviously play. But for the money it will take to keep Xander Bogaerts and/or Jackie Bradley Jr. around, is it really worth it for the amount of production they give?  Is there anyway the team could package maybe Bradley Jr. and a couple of prospects for Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds? Votto is a leader and a producer. He’s averaged 29 homers, 94 RBI, 113 walks and a .313 batting average in his 11-year career. It’s a lot of money to take ($25 million per year) on for a player turning 34 and signed through his age 39 season. But the team needs a true leader like when they had Curt Schilling, Kevin Millar and Pedro Martinez. Even similar to when they had Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino and Johnny Gomes in 2013. They need leaders not players.

            To throw my two-cents in, what about Cal Ripken Jr. as a managerial candidate? The guy has a really good gig on TV and probably has no intentions to ever become a manager, but Ripken Jr. is just the type of guy the Red Sox need. Ripken Jr. was a leader on the Baltimore Orioles. He played the game with heart and people looked up to Ripken Jr. to guide everyone on the field. He would be a perfect guy for the job if not for the circumstances.

Fallout: What more can the Red Sox fix after disappointing finish?

Dustin Pedroia and Mookie Betts

As a Red Sox fan, it was pretty painful to watch this year’s postseason. All the managerial blunders (Hanley Ramirez out in game one, benching Rafael Devers in game two, and so on) made the experience excruciating on the eyes. I wanted to carve my eyes out at points watching this Red Sox team let off home run after home run. I cursed at the television, I took to social media throughout the series and I even yelled in excitement as Ramirez mounted a comeback in Game 3. It was a wild ride and I admit, when Pedroia grounded out to end the season, I stormed off cursing this team. "This stupid team! A bunch of pathetic losers!"

In the fallout of this season, I put a lot of this on manager John Farrell not because he’s an easy scapegoat, but because it truly is on Farrell. Remember back to before the season started. The Red Sox acquired Chris Sale and combined him with some of the best talent in baseball, creating headlines like “The best team in baseball,” “World Series or bust” and more. The team was even favorites to win it all according to Vegas. So what happened? Injuries? Maybe. Pedroia did miss time, David Price as well and Mookie Betts has battled a wrist injury as of late. But putting that all aside, the team still scored the tenth most runs in major league baseball (785), had the seventh most doubles in baseball (302) and finished 13^th in average (.258). They’re an above average offense and fit inside the top-10 in the MLB.

Their pitching is similar.

The team finished fourth in ERA, second in quality starts, third in strikeouts and ninth in batting average against. All this along with the tab of “one of the best bullpens in baseball.” So what happened?

It’s manager John Farrell.

There are many managers that can do what Farrell did and has done throughout the regular season. Farrell has won back-to-back division titles, made it to the playoffs multiple times as manager and has coached winning teams in general. He’s even won a World Series, I can’t knock him for that. But managers such as Dusty Baker, Buck Showalter, Clint Hurdle, Bob Melvin and more can do and have done the same thing (minus the World Series win). What I’m getting at here, is major league baseball has so many managers that can win regular season games, win divisions but when the game turns into a short series with the need for hyper focus, they falter. Farrell is in that crowd.

For instance, Farrell stated prior to Game 4 that Kimbrel would be available for two innings of relief. With Alex Bregman, a righty who has had success against lefties (.331 average), it makes sense to bring in Craig Kimbrel. Instead, Farrell leaves Sale in the game, probably because Sale was pitching well (although on short rest and after Farrell said he wouldn’t be in the game for long), but nonetheless, Sale was tiring. Watch the game footage. Sale’s movement got progressively worse (as expected) with the greatest difference coming at the end of the seventh inning. Not to ramble on anymore, Bregman hits a home run, Farrell continues to keep Sale in the game and then randomly decides he will bring Kimbrel in with two outs following a fly out.

To play a little Monday Morning Quarterback, I looked up Craig Kimbrel’s lifetime stats. After looking through amazing and unbelievable numbers (really look through them, they’re amazing) I found a couple blemishes that show how Kimbrel doesn't succeed coming in at the exact time Farrell decided to bring him in.

When entering with two outs in an inning, Kimbrel gives up the most hits, runs, doubles, home runs, you name it than in any other situation throughout his career. With two outs and a runner on first, Kimbrel has given up 40 hits, 25 runs and has walked 22. Eyeballing the stats, it’s a situation that sticks out on the paper.

Of course, Farrell doesn’t know this in game, nor that he should. It’s a little MMQB action. But what should he know? That Kimbrel, this season, hasn’t been too good when asked to come in without a clean inning. That Kimbrel is statistically worse in one-run games. That Kimbrel has blown the game in high leverage situations for the Braves in Game 3 of the NLDS in 2010 and Game 4 in 2013. Just by knowing who Craig Kimbrel is, anyone can understand the he is best when given a clean inning and has faltered previously in high leverage situations during the playoffs. It's eyeballing. I had conversations about these exact things as Kimbrel came out of the bullpen.

So what does this all mean?

If the Red Sox want to win a World Series, they need a manager who understands how to manage when the games get intense. Any solid manager can win regular season games but a truly great one knows how to win playoff series. They know how to micromanage to win games when they matter most. Farrell can’t do that.

So whatever 2013 means in this argument, I concede that Farrell has won in the past. But it doesn’t mean anything now, as the Red Sox are 1-6 in their last two postseasons. They have a team with something ethically wrong with them (Eck and Price feud, Jackie Bradley Jr. and his twitter post with Eck and Pedroia finger pointing) and competitively. How do you change this? Not by going out and spending more money on top talent. It’s about the manager getting every little ounce out of the mediocre players on the roster. It’s why Brad Stevens is so coveted around here and why fans yell to bring back Terry Francona. Farrell doesn’t have it anymore. It’s time to look elsewhere.

Playoffs are about to get wild! Picks and analysis of MLB's postseason

October is when things heat up in Major League Baseball. Every game, every out, every pitch matters. We see pitchers like Andrew Miller dominate outside of their typical role and others flounder (Kershaw, Price). Postseason baseball is some of the best entertainment and late nights you can ask for. Here are some thoughts, analysis and picks for this year’s postseason.

The Yankees will defeat the Twins tonight

It’s not much of a prediction because the Yankees are favored but I’m taking the Yankees. Twins starting pitcher for the game, Ervin Santana, is 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA in New Yankee stadium. A fly-ball pitcher, the Yankees have a ton of guys that can take advantage of Santana and hit a couple out of the park. Expect Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez to lead this team in the offensive output tonight. However, I don’t expect Judge to have a good postseason run. He’s young. He’s raw. He strikes out a lot. The aroma around Judge and his play-style sets him up for a shock in his first post-season run, floundering on the big screen.

The Diamondbacks will defeat the Rockies

Another favorite I’m picking to win, but I just don’t see the Rockies winning this one. A .500 team on the road and less than .500 in the second-half (35-36 in the second-half compared to 52-39 in the first-half), the majority of the Rockies’ team is worse on the road. And by a lot. The Rockies’ Charlie Blackmon (34-104-14, .331 avg) is hitting only .276 on the road with a .377 on-base percentage (OBP). That compares to his .391 avg and .466 OBP at home. Power hitter Mark Reynolds (30 homers) has only nine home runs on the road. His bat has also gone silent with only two homers in the month of September. The same goes for starting second baseman DJ LeMaheiu (.294 avg at away vs. .327 away) and starting pitcher Jon Gray (5-1, 3.13 ERA at home, 5-3, 4.06 ERA on the road). I’m taking MVP Candidate Paul Goldschmidt and the Diamondbacks in this one.

Cubs will take down the Nationals, but won’t make it to the World Series

Nationals manager Dusty Baker has never won a world series. He also has an injured Max Scherzer (hamstring) and fragile Stephen Strasburg leading the way. The two have found some success in the playoffs, albeit Strasburg having only one start, but it almost feels like the Nationals are backing into this one with their okay September and recent injury hiccups. Meanwhile the Cubs are heating up with a 19-9 September and .662 winning percentage in the second-half, backed by the most runs scored in Major League Baseball during that time. Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Anthony Rizzo are on fire in the run production department and with veterans Jon Lester and Jon Lackey leading the Cubs’ pitching staff, the Cubs are primed to take out the Nationals quickly. But they won’t make it back to the World Series. Unless the Rockies find themselves in the ALCS, both the Dodgers and Diamondbacks have what it takes to take down the Cubs.

The World Series will be the Astros and whoever wins between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks

I’m getting ahead of myself seeing the Diamondbacks haven’t even won their play-in game, but the Astros will take on whoever wins that matchup in the World Series. Not only are the Astros a fundamentally strong hitting team with the ability to come back from any deficit, the Astros have plus pitching in Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel along with bullpen arms Ken Giles and Chris Devenski. The Astros have the keys to take down the Indians regardless of how well they have played as of late (Cleveland does have the 5-1 advantage in the regular season head-to-head however). They’ve been the most consistent team in baseball throughout the entire season.

On the other side, the two best teams are the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks actually have the 11-8 regular season advantage over the Dodgers and have outscored them in those games too. A Dodgers-Diamondbacks series could be just as good as the World Series. The Dodgers have been able to find ways not to win playoff games as of late, but with Dave Roberts as manager, he might prove the difference this postseason.

Playoff Predictions

Wild card round

Yankees over Twins, Diamondbacks over Rockies.

American league

Astros in four over the Red Sox. Indians in five over the Yankees. Astros in seven over the Indians.

National league

Cubs in four over the Nationals. Dodgers in five over the Diamondbacks. Dodgers in six over the Cubs.

World Series

Astros over Dodgers in six.