Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Playoffs are about to get wild! Picks and analysis of MLB's postseason


October is when things heat up in Major League Baseball. Every game, every out, every pitch matters. We see pitchers like Andrew Miller dominate outside of their typical role and others flounder (Kershaw, Price). Postseason baseball is some of the best entertainment and late nights you can ask for. Here are some thoughts, analysis and picks for this year’s postseason.
The Yankees will defeat the Twins tonight
It’s not much of a prediction because the Yankees are favored but I’m taking the Yankees. Twins starting pitcher for the game, Ervin Santana, is 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA in New Yankee stadium. A fly-ball pitcher, the Yankees have a ton of guys that can take advantage of Santana and hit a couple out of the park. Expect Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez to lead this team in the offensive output tonight. However, I don’t expect Judge to have a good postseason run. He’s young. He’s raw. He strikes out a lot. The aroma around Judge and his play-style sets him up for a shock in his first post-season run, floundering on the big screen.
The Diamondbacks will defeat the Rockies
Another favorite I’m picking to win, but I just don’t see the Rockies winning this one. A .500 team on the road and less than .500 in the second-half (35-36 in the second-half compared to 52-39 in the first-half), the majority of the Rockies’ team is worse on the road. And by a lot. The Rockies’ Charlie Blackmon (34-104-14, .331 avg) is hitting only .276 on the road with a .377 on-base percentage (OBP). That compares to his .391 avg and .466 OBP at home. Power hitter Mark Reynolds (30 homers) has only nine home runs on the road. His bat has also gone silent with only two homers in the month of September. The same goes for starting second baseman DJ LeMaheiu (.294 avg at away vs. .327 away) and starting pitcher Jon Gray (5-1, 3.13 ERA at home, 5-3, 4.06 ERA on the road). I’m taking MVP Candidate Paul Goldschmidt and the Diamondbacks in this one.
Cubs will take down the Nationals, but won’t make it to the World Series
Nationals manager Dusty Baker has never won a world series. He also has an injured Max Scherzer (hamstring) and fragile Stephen Strasburg leading the way. The two have found some success in the playoffs, albeit Strasburg having only one start, but it almost feels like the Nationals are backing into this one with their okay September and recent injury hiccups. Meanwhile the Cubs are heating up with a 19-9 September and .662 winning percentage in the second-half, backed by the most runs scored in Major League Baseball during that time. Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Anthony Rizzo are on fire in the run production department and with veterans Jon Lester and Jon Lackey leading the Cubs’ pitching staff, the Cubs are primed to take out the Nationals quickly. But they won’t make it back to the World Series. Unless the Rockies find themselves in the ALCS, both the Dodgers and Diamondbacks have what it takes to take down the Cubs.
The World Series will be the Astros and whoever wins between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks
I’m getting ahead of myself seeing the Diamondbacks haven’t even won their play-in game, but the Astros will take on whoever wins that matchup in the World Series. Not only are the Astros a fundamentally strong hitting team with the ability to come back from any deficit, the Astros have plus pitching in Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel along with bullpen arms Ken Giles and Chris Devenski. The Astros have the keys to take down the Indians regardless of how well they have played as of late (Cleveland does have the 5-1 advantage in the regular season head-to-head however). They’ve been the most consistent team in baseball throughout the entire season.
On the other side, the two best teams are the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks actually have the 11-8 regular season advantage over the Dodgers and have outscored them in those games too. A Dodgers-Diamondbacks series could be just as good as the World Series. The Dodgers have been able to find ways not to win playoff games as of late, but with Dave Roberts as manager, he might prove the difference this postseason.
Playoff Predictions
Wild card round
Yankees over Twins, Diamondbacks over Rockies.
American league
Astros in four over the Red Sox. Indians in five over the Yankees. Astros in seven over the Indians.
National league
Cubs in four over the Nationals. Dodgers in five over the Diamondbacks. Dodgers in six over the Cubs.
World Series

Astros over Dodgers in six.

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