Friday, January 9, 2015

NFL Divisional Playoffs Analysis and Predictions

Last week’s NFL wild card playoffs had some great games and then some games that made you want to take a nap. There was the Indianapolis blowout against quarterback Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals, now 0-4 under the Dalton regime. Then there was the Baltimore win against Pittsburgh as the underdog of the game and don’t forget the Detroit-Dallas game that was “decided” by a not-so pass interference flag, later to be picked up (however, we all know quarterback Matthew Stafford played horribly in the second half, giving up the ball in every key situation, leading to the Lions’ loss). This week has four great games and I’ve done all the thinking for you, breaking down each game with in-depth analysis and predictions (I went 4 for 4 last week, so maybe I actually do know something about sports).
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (Sat. Jan. 10 @ 4:35 p.m.)
Keys for Baltimore
Quarterback Joe Flacco had a stellar performance last week in Pittsburgh, throwing for 259 yards and two touchdowns. Flacco seems to always play better during playoff games and he needs to do so again this week if the Ravens want any chance of beating the Patriots. Sure, Baltimore has a great defense, as shown last week against Pittsburgh when they forced two fumbles, five sacks and two interceptions, but the Patriots have just as good of a defense. The Ravens have no easy matchup when trying to get downfield against Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Jamie Collins and more. For the Ravens to win, they need to play smart, small ball. They need to have a strategic run game, well-placed passes—nothing crazy—and they cannot do anything stupid on special teams. Flacco needs to play with 100 percent precision come Saturday.
Keys for New England
The Baltimore Ravens’ defense features studs such as Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata and Elvis Dumervil. Their front line has a stout advantage against the Patriots sub-par run game. Their linebacking crew also poses a threat against the Patriots fast-pace, short-pass offense. So how do the Patriots defeat the Ravens? Brandon LaFell. LaFell has the quickness to beat most of Baltimore’s defense when going one-on-one against them. If Brady can sling a couple passes downfield to LaFell and in return LaFell doesn’t drop any like he usually does, the Patriots have the advantage. Wide receiver Julian Edelman and tight end Rob Gronkowski could very well be non-existent in this game. The Patriots need to capitalize on having wide receiver Brandon LaFell in that case.
Verdict
In a game that could come down to the last drive and special teams, the New England Patriots have been the best team in the conference since week four. The days are gone where the Ravens had Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, as well as the days where the Ravens could win playoff games against the Patriots New England 27 Baltimore 24
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (Sat. Jan. 10 @ 8:15 p.m.)
Keys for Carolina
Last week, quarterback Cam Newton threw an interception and lost a fumble. All in all, he was not at the top of his game. If Newton plays the same way against the Seahawks, don’t expect their offense to score even once against one of the league’s best defenses, if not the best defense. The Panthers need Newton playing smarter. He can’t force passes to receiver Kelvin Benjamin, which led to 11 dropped passes on Benjamin’s end. Those dropped passes will lead to interceptions against Seattle. Newton needs to perform better for the Panthers to have any kind of existence in Saturday’s game.
Keys for Seattle
The red hot Carolina defense plays into everything Seattle’s offense is good at. They can take away the run game, especially against the outside. Seattle also does not have a legitimate threat to throw to, which makes it easier for the Carolina defense to focus on the likes of running back Marshawn Lynch and quarterback Russell Wilson. For Seattle to win, they need to deploy any secrets they have in the passing game. Wilson needs to mix in some scrambles and deep passes and create a two-way offense instead of doing the predictable hand off to Lynch and the pump fake leading to Wilson taking off with the ball.
Verdict
The Carolina Panthers’ defense is a serious threat against Seattle. If both defenses play their best, expect a long and boring game. In a game about defenses, one has a hard time betting against Seattle at home with the 12th man on their side. Seattle 19 Carolina 9
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (Sun. Jan. 11 @ 1:05 p.m.)
Keys for Dallas
Dallas got lucky when Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers injured his calf. That means Rodgers will most likely not be at the top of his game. The Dallas defense must exploit this. Attack the run game and get to Rodgers when passing by forcing him to move out of the pocket and take some hard hits against that calf. Last week also showed that the defense is capable of taking away a team’s top two threats, which is applicable to Green Bay’s Nelson-Cobb combo. But Dallas cannot stop at those two. As shown against New England, Green Bay can win a game with their third and fourth options, as they beat the Patriots 26-21 with receiver Davante Adams (six catches for 121 yards) and tight end Richard Rodgers (one touchdown catch). Although it is hard to completely take out the passing game, especially against any form of Aaron Rodgers, Dallas needs to minimalize Green Bay’s passing game and force them to run the ball.
Keys for Green Bay
The keys for Green Bay fall in line with Dallas’s keys to victory. They need to force passes against Dallas’s defense to their third and fourth options. Their offensive line needs to step up and protect Rodger’s injured calf, which will allow him to focus solely on completing passes. Running back Eddie Lacy needs to step up and take on some of Rodger’s load in order to secure a victory against Dallas’s 8-0 record on the road.
Verdict
An injured Aaron Rodgers calls for an upset against a team that is 8-0 on the road. Dallas seems as if they can keep playing at a high level, but just as easy can the entire team collapse and quarterback Tony Romo could have another less than stellar performance, choking at the most important time. Still, Dallas seems as if they can beat an injured Rodgers which is probably going to be the deciding factor in the game. Dallas 34 Green Bay 31
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (Sun. Jan. 11 @ 4:40 p.m.)
Keys for Indianapolis
Quarterback Andrew Luck needs to have the game of the year in order to beat the Denver Broncos. That isn’t saying they have no shot at winning, simply it means that their defense is horrible and between quarterback Peyton Manning and running back C.J. Anderson, Denver could put up 30 points easily. If Indianapolis wants to win this game, it starts with Andrew Luck. Luck needs to carry the team, put up 30+ points and combat the Broncos offense with his own skills.
Keys for Denver
Peyton Manning comes into the game with more sub-par games within the last four weeks than great games. Along with the bye week and possible 30 degree weather, it all makes for a surprise victory for Indianapolis. Manning still has the best shot at winning however. He is the best quarterback to probably play the game, but he does need a little help from Anderson. Denver needs to mix up the offense against a terrible Indianapolis defense, causing them to make multiple errors due to the inability to read the play.
Verdict

This is another game that has the making for an upset if Andrew Luck can play like the greats and the defense buckles down and puts a stop to Denver. However, the Broncos still seem like they can pull out a win in the cold when historically Manning plays terribly. Expect a big game from running back C.J. Anderson. Denver 31 Indianapolis 27

Monday, January 5, 2015

NFL Wildcard Playoffs Thoughts and Comments

Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers
As prescribed, Arizona quarterback Ryan Lindley had a terrible outing going 16-28 passing for 51 yards and two interceptions. The Cardinals only had 78 total yards, ouch. Blame the Carolina defense for Arizona’s woes as well. The defense forced three fumbles, four sacks, eight tackles for a loss and two interceptions.
Carolina quarterback Cam Newton played well, throwing for 198 yards and two touchdowns, as well as running for 35 yards. He had the poise of a winning quarterback and showed he could succeed when the games matter. However, Newton needs to contain the turnovers. Newton throwing an interception and the offense as a whole allowing three fumbles cannot happen against the Seahawks on the road. If it happens again, expect the Carolina Panthers to lose.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco was at it again, single-handedly winning the game for the Ravens. Flacco had 259 passing yards and two touchdowns. In the playoffs, Flacco seems unstoppable. He now has 21 touchdowns to only eight interceptions while averaging 209 passing yards per game. Flacco can get it done when the job needs to be finished as he showed once again Saturday.
Not having Le’Veon Bell really hurt the Pittsburgh Steelers. Newly acquired running back Ben Tate did his job in picking up some yards where it matters, but not much more picking up only 19 yards on five carries. He could not stay on the field for three downs either, unlike Bell. With Bell, do the Steelers win the game? Maybe, but no one can think in hypotheticals. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had 334 passing yards but threw two picks and only one touchdown. Many times the team had to settle for field goals after marching down the field. No excuses in Pittsburgh’s loss.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis Colts
Colts running back Daniel Herron stole the show Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals running for 56 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries and catching 10 passes for 85 yards. The two fumbles by Herron prohibits a complete breakout performance, but a tip of the cap to him for coming in after starter Ahmad Bradshaw went down to injury and surpassing expectations.
Once again quarterback Andrew Luck excels while quarterback Andy Dalton falls flat on his face. Dalton could not capture his first postseason victory, extending his record to 0-4 while in the NFL. Will Dalton ever win in the playoffs, no one knows. Luck on the other hand looked great against the Bengals and looks as if he can go right into Denver and blow out the defense. Luck makes the Broncos-Colts game a must watch next week.
Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys

The Detroit Lions played excellently in the first half, going into the second up 20-7. However, in the second half Detroit faltered, giving up 17 points, quarterback Matthew Stafford fumbling on the last two chances to score in the fourth quarter. For all of the grief about the reversed pass interference call, Stafford lost the game for the Detroit with his horrible second half play. Dallas took the game from Detroit in the second half.

Friday, January 2, 2015

NFL Wild Card Playoffs Analysis and Predictions

The road to Glendale, Ariz. begins this Saturday with four good matchups in this year’s wild card playoffs. With matchups such as the red hot, sub .500 Carolina Panthers playing at home against the faltering Arizona Cardinals and the staunch Detroit Lions against the improbable Dallas Cowboys, this week’s games are sure to provide entertainment and heartbreak for fans. Here is the breakdown and predictions for each wild card matchup.
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (Sat. Jan. 3 @ 4:20 p.m.)
Keys for Arizona
            Plagued by quarterback injuries, third-string Ryan Lindley will be starting for the Cardinals, who lost both of his previous starts, throwing four interceptions and only two touchdowns. In order for the team to win Saturday, the defense needs to play perfectly. Arizona will most likely not score 20-30 points with their offense, rather they are looking for a 14-13 type win. The defense needs to contain Carolina quarterback Cam Newton and not let him break free for big gains running the ball. If the defense can minimize Newton, they have a good chance to win this game.
Keys for Carolina
            The Carolina Panthers have done the improbable, winning four straight after losing sixth in a row to capture the NFC South. The Panthers have 14 sacks in their last four wins, while Newton also averaged 65 rushing-yards per game and had a rushing touchdown in every game he appeared in during the win streak. The Panthers have played like a legitimate division champion recently and for Carolina to win this game, Newton has to continue playing at such a high level. Ditto for the defense.
Verdict
            The Carolina Panthers are the hot team right now, while Arizona has lost four of their last six while going through three quarterbacks. If Arizona can contain Newton, they can win, but it doesn’t look so for Saturday. Carolina lucked out in this matchup. Carolina 27 Arizona 13
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sat. Jan. 3 @ 8:15 p.m.)
Keys for Baltimore
            While under coach John Harbaugh, the Ravens have a good chance to make it to the Super Bowl every year. Under Harbaugh, the team has made it to the playoffs six out of seven years, winning at least one game in five of those years. How do they do it? By unleashing quarterback Joe Flacco. Flacco has an arm that can win games single handedly for this team. Baltimore needs to take advantage of that against a defense that ranks 18th in both yards and points allowed.
Keys for Pittsburgh
            If Pittsburgh does not have Le’Veon Bell for Saturday, things become very hard for the Steelers. With over 2,000 total yards on offense, Bell carries much of the load for Pittsburgh. Fortunately, they also have pro-bowl receiver Antonio Brown in the mix. Brown amassed 1,698 receiving yards on the year (106 average per game), as well as 13 touchdowns. Baltimore’s defense ranks 23rd against the pass. The Steelers need to exploit this weakness in order to win the game. They need to throw it to Brown on virtually every play that matters.
Verdict
            With Bell, the Steelers have a formidable team. Without him they are somewhat-lacking. Harbaugh knows how to coach and probably can conceal the team’s weaknesses. Without Bell, it is hard to see the Steelers take down Harbaugh and Flacco in a playoff game. Baltimore 24 Pittsburgh 20
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (Sun. Jan. 4 @ 1:05 p.m.)
Keys for Cincinnati
            Bengals fans must fear for their lives every time the team makes it to the playoffs. In the past three years, the Bengals have lost in terrific fashion during the wild card playoffs, losing to scores such as 27-10, 19-13, and 31-10. Quarterback Andy Dalton has also played terrible during the playoffs, throwing six interceptions and only one touchdown. Overall though, the team is much better than Indianapolis. They have a more-sound defense and an overall better offense that uses the running game and the passing game. In order to win this game, Dalton must step up and execute as well as the entire team needs to play up to par.
Keys for Indianapolis
            The Colts probably have the most flaws in the AFC. Their run game is virtually non-existent and their defense either plays phenomenally or falls right on their faces. The defense’s genius also comes sporadically every week; the team never knows which type of defense will show up. However, the Colts have the best quarterback of the new era in Andrew Luck who has single-handedly won multiple games for the team this year. In week seven, the Colts beat the Bengals 27-0, holding the Bengals to only 135 total yards with four sacks and six tackles for losses. Luck also threw for 344 yards and two touchdowns. For the Colts to win, the same team needs to show up Sunday, ready to pounce on every Bengals opportunity and mishap.
Verdict
            The Bengals are the better team on paper, but they never seem to show up during the playoffs. With Luck manning the Colts offense, look for a great game from him regardless of how their defense plays. If Luck can execute and rise to the occasion, not only can the Colts win this game, they have a good shot at winning the Super Bowl. Indianapolis 34 Cincinnati 23
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (Sun. Jan. 4 @ 4:40 p.m.)
Keys for Detroit
            The Detroit Lions probably have the best defense going into the playoffs (cue attacks from Seattle Seahawks fans). Even though Seattle ranks first and Detroit second in most categories, the Lions have a much better front line. Detroit has to use this to their advantage in order to win games. Running back DeMarco Murray will probably have a great game against this defense, but they can take advantage against the pass. They need to force quarterback Tony Romo into making bad decisions, take sacks and buckle under pressure. Under coach Jim Caldwell, anything looks possible for this team.
Keys for Dallas
            Dallas goes into this game as the team that has over performed all year. Murray has put up numbers far greater than any other running back. Romo has had his best season to date and receiver Dez Bryant looks unstoppable. In order to defeat Detroit’s defense and win this game, all three have to step up and make the defense mad. Players such as Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley and DeAndre Levy start to make mistakes when they get worked up. Dallas needs to get into the head of the defense.
Verdict

            Detroit has the defense and coach to win this game. However, the fact that Detroit is 1-4 against playoffs teams this year worries me. Dallas has been over performing all season and all it takes is a couple of bad plays to bring them back down to reality. They have surprised so many fans this season by starting 6-1, taking out the Seahawks on the road and then finishing 4-0 and blowing out every opponent by scoring 38 or more points in each of those games. Unfortunately, no surprises will occur Sunday for the Lions as the Cowboys continue to prove themselves as Super Bowl contenders. Dallas 38 Detroit 24