Friday, January 9, 2015

NFL Divisional Playoffs Analysis and Predictions

Last week’s NFL wild card playoffs had some great games and then some games that made you want to take a nap. There was the Indianapolis blowout against quarterback Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals, now 0-4 under the Dalton regime. Then there was the Baltimore win against Pittsburgh as the underdog of the game and don’t forget the Detroit-Dallas game that was “decided” by a not-so pass interference flag, later to be picked up (however, we all know quarterback Matthew Stafford played horribly in the second half, giving up the ball in every key situation, leading to the Lions’ loss). This week has four great games and I’ve done all the thinking for you, breaking down each game with in-depth analysis and predictions (I went 4 for 4 last week, so maybe I actually do know something about sports).
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (Sat. Jan. 10 @ 4:35 p.m.)
Keys for Baltimore
Quarterback Joe Flacco had a stellar performance last week in Pittsburgh, throwing for 259 yards and two touchdowns. Flacco seems to always play better during playoff games and he needs to do so again this week if the Ravens want any chance of beating the Patriots. Sure, Baltimore has a great defense, as shown last week against Pittsburgh when they forced two fumbles, five sacks and two interceptions, but the Patriots have just as good of a defense. The Ravens have no easy matchup when trying to get downfield against Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Jamie Collins and more. For the Ravens to win, they need to play smart, small ball. They need to have a strategic run game, well-placed passes—nothing crazy—and they cannot do anything stupid on special teams. Flacco needs to play with 100 percent precision come Saturday.
Keys for New England
The Baltimore Ravens’ defense features studs such as Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata and Elvis Dumervil. Their front line has a stout advantage against the Patriots sub-par run game. Their linebacking crew also poses a threat against the Patriots fast-pace, short-pass offense. So how do the Patriots defeat the Ravens? Brandon LaFell. LaFell has the quickness to beat most of Baltimore’s defense when going one-on-one against them. If Brady can sling a couple passes downfield to LaFell and in return LaFell doesn’t drop any like he usually does, the Patriots have the advantage. Wide receiver Julian Edelman and tight end Rob Gronkowski could very well be non-existent in this game. The Patriots need to capitalize on having wide receiver Brandon LaFell in that case.
Verdict
In a game that could come down to the last drive and special teams, the New England Patriots have been the best team in the conference since week four. The days are gone where the Ravens had Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, as well as the days where the Ravens could win playoff games against the Patriots New England 27 Baltimore 24
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (Sat. Jan. 10 @ 8:15 p.m.)
Keys for Carolina
Last week, quarterback Cam Newton threw an interception and lost a fumble. All in all, he was not at the top of his game. If Newton plays the same way against the Seahawks, don’t expect their offense to score even once against one of the league’s best defenses, if not the best defense. The Panthers need Newton playing smarter. He can’t force passes to receiver Kelvin Benjamin, which led to 11 dropped passes on Benjamin’s end. Those dropped passes will lead to interceptions against Seattle. Newton needs to perform better for the Panthers to have any kind of existence in Saturday’s game.
Keys for Seattle
The red hot Carolina defense plays into everything Seattle’s offense is good at. They can take away the run game, especially against the outside. Seattle also does not have a legitimate threat to throw to, which makes it easier for the Carolina defense to focus on the likes of running back Marshawn Lynch and quarterback Russell Wilson. For Seattle to win, they need to deploy any secrets they have in the passing game. Wilson needs to mix in some scrambles and deep passes and create a two-way offense instead of doing the predictable hand off to Lynch and the pump fake leading to Wilson taking off with the ball.
Verdict
The Carolina Panthers’ defense is a serious threat against Seattle. If both defenses play their best, expect a long and boring game. In a game about defenses, one has a hard time betting against Seattle at home with the 12th man on their side. Seattle 19 Carolina 9
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (Sun. Jan. 11 @ 1:05 p.m.)
Keys for Dallas
Dallas got lucky when Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers injured his calf. That means Rodgers will most likely not be at the top of his game. The Dallas defense must exploit this. Attack the run game and get to Rodgers when passing by forcing him to move out of the pocket and take some hard hits against that calf. Last week also showed that the defense is capable of taking away a team’s top two threats, which is applicable to Green Bay’s Nelson-Cobb combo. But Dallas cannot stop at those two. As shown against New England, Green Bay can win a game with their third and fourth options, as they beat the Patriots 26-21 with receiver Davante Adams (six catches for 121 yards) and tight end Richard Rodgers (one touchdown catch). Although it is hard to completely take out the passing game, especially against any form of Aaron Rodgers, Dallas needs to minimalize Green Bay’s passing game and force them to run the ball.
Keys for Green Bay
The keys for Green Bay fall in line with Dallas’s keys to victory. They need to force passes against Dallas’s defense to their third and fourth options. Their offensive line needs to step up and protect Rodger’s injured calf, which will allow him to focus solely on completing passes. Running back Eddie Lacy needs to step up and take on some of Rodger’s load in order to secure a victory against Dallas’s 8-0 record on the road.
Verdict
An injured Aaron Rodgers calls for an upset against a team that is 8-0 on the road. Dallas seems as if they can keep playing at a high level, but just as easy can the entire team collapse and quarterback Tony Romo could have another less than stellar performance, choking at the most important time. Still, Dallas seems as if they can beat an injured Rodgers which is probably going to be the deciding factor in the game. Dallas 34 Green Bay 31
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (Sun. Jan. 11 @ 4:40 p.m.)
Keys for Indianapolis
Quarterback Andrew Luck needs to have the game of the year in order to beat the Denver Broncos. That isn’t saying they have no shot at winning, simply it means that their defense is horrible and between quarterback Peyton Manning and running back C.J. Anderson, Denver could put up 30 points easily. If Indianapolis wants to win this game, it starts with Andrew Luck. Luck needs to carry the team, put up 30+ points and combat the Broncos offense with his own skills.
Keys for Denver
Peyton Manning comes into the game with more sub-par games within the last four weeks than great games. Along with the bye week and possible 30 degree weather, it all makes for a surprise victory for Indianapolis. Manning still has the best shot at winning however. He is the best quarterback to probably play the game, but he does need a little help from Anderson. Denver needs to mix up the offense against a terrible Indianapolis defense, causing them to make multiple errors due to the inability to read the play.
Verdict

This is another game that has the making for an upset if Andrew Luck can play like the greats and the defense buckles down and puts a stop to Denver. However, the Broncos still seem like they can pull out a win in the cold when historically Manning plays terribly. Expect a big game from running back C.J. Anderson. Denver 31 Indianapolis 27

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