Bill James the Source to Red Sox Woes?

When trying to find the reason why the Boston Red Sox performed poorly so far this season, one must look at senior advisor of baseball operations and statistician Bill James. Annually, James publishes a baseball handbook full of player projections and statistics. In this year’s publication, James has projected many Red Sox players higher than their actual production. As a man hired by the Red Sox with a position of importance, the Red Sox probably take his projections more serious than other teams. Here are a couple of players that James missed horribly with his projections.

            Xander Bogaerts: .283 BA, .357 OBP, 19 HR, 84 RBI

            Jackie Bradley Jr.: .248 BA, .329 OBP, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 13 SB

            Wil Middlebrooks: .266 BA, .310 OBP, 32 HR, 102 RBI

            Jake Peavy: 11-7, 163 IP, 3.31 ERA, 150 SO

            Clay Buchholz: 12-9, 190 IP, 3.64 ERA, 153 SO

            Without going into their actual statistics (which are bad), clearly James had these players as key components to a playoff run by the Red Sox. Being in an important position for the Red Sox, one is led to believe that they took these projections seriously. So when entering the offseason, it puts emphasis on that maybe the Red Sox did not go after a third baseman because Middlebrooks would probably bounce back. Maybe they did not get another starting pitcher because Peavy and Buchholz seemed solid. Maybe they saw Bradley Jr. as a viable offensive weapon.

            Bill James is a smart guy. I like viewing his projections each year before the season. But I do not view them as a great source for what the future looks like. I think that the Red Sox do. When Cherington has James whispering in his ear all of these projections on players bouncing back and having great seasons, one has to question whether it changes how the Red Sox went about fixing this team. Clearly it did not work, showing how they completely stripped down their roster since the start of the season. I like the prospectus of the 2015 Red Sox and I think James is not part of it.

Verlander evidence that Red Sox ownership's philosophy is correct?

After many years of “power pitching” from Justin Verlander, it has finally caught up to him. After being pulled from his last start due to  shoulder soreness, Verlander has not been his spectacular self this season, pitching to a 4.76 ERA in 158 innings, along with a league leading 171 hits and 84 earned runs. His strikeouts remain down (118) while his walks have increased (55). Now at 31 years old with six years and $162 million left on his contract, does Justin Verlander support Red Sox ownership’s philosophy of not giving out long term deals to players over thirty?

Before turning 30, Verlander was the most dominant pitcher in the game. He averaged 17 wins, 220 innings, and 206 strikeouts. During this time, Verlander led the league in strikeouts three times, innings three times, and wins three times. In 2011, when Verlander was 28 years old, he pitched 251 innings, gathering 250 strikeouts, 24 wins, and an ERA of 2.40, leading the league in all categories, earning himself a Cy Young award and MVP in the same year. In seasons where Verlander was 30 or older, he has a combined 23-23 record and a 4.02 ERA. His strikeouts and innings have decreased as well. Injuries have probably caused these decreases, but old age has caused these injuries.

            During the offseason, Verlander suffered an injury that required “core muscle repair” surgery. Very vague, I am not even sure what this is. Research tells me that this is somewhat like a sports hernia, where hip movement is rather hard and painful. High levels of torque causes pain, thus needing the surgery. Verlander’s power pitching mechanics leave him vulnerable to high torque situations, which probably causes the problems in his mechanics.

            Verlander delivers that ball with a big leg kick, as you can see in this video. From his leg kick, Verlander begins to twist his hips towards the plate. If he cannot fully twist his hips, gaining that torque, his mechanics will be off. I believe this injury has effected Verlander’s poor season the most. The reason for this injury? Old age.

            When pitchers rely on velocity, they breakdown as they age. Having pitched 1,800 innings adds to Verlander’s sudden decline as well. Justin Verlander’s sudden decline due to injuries is proof that the Red Sox are right in saying that players over 30 usually do not live up to the contract.

Red Sox Rant: Does Bradley Jr. have a place in Red Sox future?

            Two years ago, owners assured Red Sox Nation that Jackie Bradley Jr. would be next in line to take over center field duties. They assured that Bradley Jr. would be a big time player, able to compete at a high level. Once considered a valuable trade chip, now he would be a throw-in in a deal for Giancarlo Stanton. Jackie Bradley Jr. has been awful at the plate. So bad that the Red Sox should look elsewhere for a center fielder.

            With 427 major league at bats under his belt, Bradley Jr. is hitting .206/.281/.300. Even worse is his strikeout numbers. Bradley Jr. has 138 career strikeouts, accounting for 32 percent of his at bats. In contrast, he only has 88 career hits and 70 so far through the 2014 season, third worse among MLB starters. Statistician Bill Chuck took Bradley Jr.’s numbers to another level, making it seem even more gruesome. Chuck reported that Bradley Jr. has been held hitless in 52 games this season and has struck out in 68 games, as well as 28 multiple strikeout games. He has the most strikeouts for hitters with less than five home runs. Also, Bradley Jr. has a .214 batting average at Fenway Park and .218 in other parks. His numbers are terrible.

            Still think that Bradley Jr. has room to improve due to his age? Not so much. Of all players that have 400 plate appearances with an at-bat-to-strikeout ratio of 4.5 and Isolated Power (ISO) of .100 or less, Michael Bourn tops the list. Bradley Jr. and Bourn have similar defensive capabilities, but Bourn could run the bases much better before his injuries than Bradley Jr. can. Most of his value as a starter is in his base running abilities, able to steal bases at high rates. Bradley Jr. does not have that capability. The rest of the players on the list include Lorenzo Cain, Gregor Blanco, and Brendan Ryan. All three had high expectations (like Bradley Jr.) coming into the league, but have faltered into backup roles without much value for a franchise. Bradley Jr. fits into that category much better than with Michael Bourn.

            Jackie Bradley Jr. has disappointed owners, managers, and fans alike with his sub-par plate discipline. Bradley Jr. will never hit for power, which makes his strikeout ratios rather scary. Now that Mookie Betts is knocking on the door, Bradley Jr. could very well lose his starting role come the start of next season. Without improvement at the plate, Bradley Jr. will find himself as a non-impact bench player for the Boston Red Sox.

Red Sox Rant: Contenders or Pretenders?

      With this year’s trade deadline behind us, the Red Sox made several key moves for the future. They brought in outfielders Yeonis Cespedes and Allen Craig, along with pitcher Joe Kelly rather than prospects. General manager Ben Cherington assured the fans that they will be competing next year. Red Sox Nation feels like a honey-moon phase following the deadline: everybody wants to watch this team again, buy their jerseys, and purchase tickets in preparation for next year. Personally, I find this as the biggest PR move the Red Sox ownership and front office has ever pulled off under the regime of John Henry.

     The Red Sox stink. They are in last place and the sixth worst team in baseball. And as I previously mentioned, fans are buying jerseys, tickets, and watching every game in excitement to see these newly acquired players. Ownership is making enormous amounts of money on a last place team, and I just don’t want to buy in. I don’t want to cheer for this last place team like it is 2004. Sorry, but I just can’t stress how much I won’t buy into this PR move.

     Ownership also has a small market mentality, which I hate. They traded Jon Lester because they were not going to resign him. No one knows if they will resign Cespedes when his contract expires after the 2015 season. It feels like the Red Sox will let their top talent leave after arbitration years from now on, a move similar to the Miami Marlins, Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays, and pretty much every team with a very small payroll.

     And do not start with the “they still have a $160 million payroll” crap. They have such a high payroll because they overspent on B rated players. They spent $13 million on Victorino, $10 million on Drew, $14 million on Dempster, and $8 million on Pierzynski. All this money could have gone to Lester, maybe Shin-Soo Choo, possibly Zach Greinke, or even Josh Hamilton. The Red Sox wasted their money on all of these B rated players and brain washed us (the fans) because they won a world series. They got everyone to believe that B rated players are worth more than franchise players.

     Then they used another small market tactic and said they have all this talent, readily available within the next three years. Potential never works. Very few guys have lived up to their potential in the Major Leagues, and none have lived up to potential so far for the Red Sox. Middlebrooks has lost his job twice and was destined to lose it a third time this year. Bradley Jr. cannot hit major league pitchers. Bogaerts has switched positions three different times now and has been pretty bad at the plate. Allen Webster couldn’t even hit a parked car to save his life the way he has pitched in the major leagues.

     But I agree that the Red Sox were smart in what they did. They moved most of their expiring contracts for talent that can help in the future and under team control for several years. But I still believe ownership keeps brain-washing the fans. They make fans buy into “next year” and make everything about “next year” and how they have all these wonderful prospects. I don’t want to wait for next year and I certainly do not want to wait for prospects. They are the Boston Red Sox. They have access to large amounts of money and can buy any player they want. They need to dish out big contracts. They need to compete every year, and they need to be a World Series or bust team. No more small market tactics, just put a playoff team on the field every year.