When trying to find the reason why the Boston Red Sox
performed poorly so far this season, one must look at senior advisor of
baseball operations and statistician Bill James. Annually, James publishes a
baseball handbook full of player projections and statistics. In this year’s
publication, James has projected many Red Sox players higher than their actual
production. As a man hired by the Red Sox with a position of importance, the
Red Sox probably take his projections more serious than other teams. Here are a
couple of players that James missed horribly with his projections.
Xander Bogaerts: .283 BA, .357 OBP,
19 HR, 84 RBI
Jackie Bradley Jr.: .248 BA, .329
OBP, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 13 SB
Wil Middlebrooks: .266 BA, .310 OBP,
32 HR, 102 RBI
Jake Peavy: 11-7, 163 IP, 3.31 ERA,
150 SO
Clay
Buchholz: 12-9, 190 IP, 3.64 ERA, 153 SO
Without
going into their actual statistics (which are bad), clearly James had these players
as key components to a playoff run by the Red Sox. Being in an important
position for the Red Sox, one is led to believe that they took these
projections seriously. So when entering the offseason, it puts emphasis on that
maybe the Red Sox did not go after a third baseman because Middlebrooks would
probably bounce back. Maybe they did not get another starting pitcher because
Peavy and Buchholz seemed solid. Maybe they saw Bradley Jr. as a viable
offensive weapon.
Bill James
is a smart guy. I like viewing his projections each year before the season. But
I do not view them as a great source for what the future looks like. I think
that the Red Sox do. When Cherington has James whispering in his ear all of
these projections on players bouncing back and having great seasons, one has to
question whether it changes how the Red Sox went about fixing this team.
Clearly it did not work, showing how they completely stripped down their roster
since the start of the season. I like the prospectus of the 2015 Red Sox and I
think James is not part of it.
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