Monday, August 11, 2014

Red Sox Rant: Does Bradley Jr. have a place in Red Sox future?

            Two years ago, owners assured Red Sox Nation that Jackie Bradley Jr. would be next in line to take over center field duties. They assured that Bradley Jr. would be a big time player, able to compete at a high level. Once considered a valuable trade chip, now he would be a throw-in in a deal for Giancarlo Stanton. Jackie Bradley Jr. has been awful at the plate. So bad that the Red Sox should look elsewhere for a center fielder.
            With 427 major league at bats under his belt, Bradley Jr. is hitting .206/.281/.300. Even worse is his strikeout numbers. Bradley Jr. has 138 career strikeouts, accounting for 32 percent of his at bats. In contrast, he only has 88 career hits and 70 so far through the 2014 season, third worse among MLB starters. Statistician Bill Chuck took Bradley Jr.’s numbers to another level, making it seem even more gruesome. Chuck reported that Bradley Jr. has been held hitless in 52 games this season and has struck out in 68 games, as well as 28 multiple strikeout games. He has the most strikeouts for hitters with less than five home runs. Also, Bradley Jr. has a .214 batting average at Fenway Park and .218 in other parks. His numbers are terrible.
            Still think that Bradley Jr. has room to improve due to his age? Not so much. Of all players that have 400 plate appearances with an at-bat-to-strikeout ratio of 4.5 and Isolated Power (ISO) of .100 or less, Michael Bourn tops the list. Bradley Jr. and Bourn have similar defensive capabilities, but Bourn could run the bases much better before his injuries than Bradley Jr. can. Most of his value as a starter is in his base running abilities, able to steal bases at high rates. Bradley Jr. does not have that capability. The rest of the players on the list include Lorenzo Cain, Gregor Blanco, and Brendan Ryan. All three had high expectations (like Bradley Jr.) coming into the league, but have faltered into backup roles without much value for a franchise. Bradley Jr. fits into that category much better than with Michael Bourn.

            Jackie Bradley Jr. has disappointed owners, managers, and fans alike with his sub-par plate discipline. Bradley Jr. will never hit for power, which makes his strikeout ratios rather scary. Now that Mookie Betts is knocking on the door, Bradley Jr. could very well lose his starting role come the start of next season. Without improvement at the plate, Bradley Jr. will find himself as a non-impact bench player for the Boston Red Sox.

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