Red Sox Rant: Lester, Matt Kemp, and Failed Prospects

     Many Red Sox fans are still contemplating owner John Henry’s words on players of 30 (He doesn’t want big contracts to players over 30). His reasoning is that the player performance is never up to par with the contract. This is often used in referral to the contracts of Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, and Carl Crawford.

     I counter that argument. Beckett led the Red Sox to a World Series win back in 2007. That same year he competed for the CY Young award, coming in second. In six full years with the Red Sox, he had 15 or more wins three times and 10 or more five times. In the back-end of his contract, now with the Dodgers, Beckett has thrown a no-hitter and a sub-3 Earned Run Average twice in three years. In one and a half years with the Red Sox, Gonzalez hit .338 one year and .300 the half year. During the full year in Boston, Gonzalez hit 27 Home Runs and 117 RBI, along with 45 doubles. Gonzalez was a major offensive threat the Red Sox need and continues to be for the Dodgers. Yes, Crawford was a botched signing. But to call all three signing botched because of Crawford?

     And yet, the Red Sox completely throw away their philosophy when it comes to David Ortiz. For a 38 year old man (40 in the Dominican), the Red Sox have been giving him above market money for the past three years. I do not understand how ownership can make these statements upon evaluating player performance when they continuously resign David Ortiz to above market contracts.

     My secondary point is that I am completely in favor of trading Jon Lester for center fielder Matt Kemp. Let’s face it: the Red Sox have no intention of resigning Jon Lester. They keep sugarcoating it so they can seem like the victim when he takes a bigger contract elsewhere. But now, you are telling me they have a chance to get some real value in return? Regardless of injuries, Matt Kemp still is a good player and has the MVP-caliber talent in him. Giving up two months of Jon Lester for that kind of player-who is only 29 and has five years remaining on a contract-is a no brainer to me.

     Lastly, I would like to showcase the Red Sox failures when dealing with prospects since 2005. Assuming all trades were made believing that the guys they kept are the real deal and every traded prospect is/was not, they have completely misjudged all of their talent. I present the prospects they kept and the prospects they have traded. The prospects they kept are nowhere near the same caliber as those traded.

Kept:

OF Jason Place, P Daniel Bard, OF Ryan Kalish, 1B Lars Anderson, 3B Wil Middlebrooks. OF Ryan Westmoreland, C Ryan Lavarnway, C Christian Vazquez, 2B Kolbrin Vitek, P Brandon Workman, P Anthony Ranaudo, OF Jackie Bradley Jr.

Traded:

P Justin Masterson, P Nick Hagadone, 1B Anthony Rizzo, P Casey Kelly, 2B Jed Lowrie, OF David Murphy

I would take the traded list over the kept list any day.

Jon Lester to St.Louis, Cole Hamels to Boston?

     I believe that at this year’s trade deadline, the Boston Red Sox will trade pitcher Jon Lester to the St. Louis Cardinals. In return, they will make another trade to acquire pitcher Cole Hamels from the Philadelphia Phillies. I have evidence to back this up as well. I will make this as easy to follow as possible.

The Information

·         ESPN’s Jayson Stark suggests that the Red Sox will be buyers and sellers at the trade deadline.

·              The Red Sox recently tabled extension talks with pitcher Jon Lester.

·         The Red Sox have sent scouts to watch the Cardinal’s farm system and St.Louis sent scouts to Boston within the last two weeks. In return, the Phillies have sent their best scouts to Portland, Red Sox’s double A team recently. Prospects in Portland include Blake Swihart and Henry Owens (pitched 7/24).

·              The Red Sox have been linked to pitcher Cole Hamels within the last two weeks.

The Outcome

·         Jon Lester goes to St. Louis. In return, the Red Sox acquire three top prospects from their organization (most likely one positional player and two pitching prospects).

·              Then Red Sox trade three top prospects to Philadelphia in exchange for pitcher Cole Hamels. This trade would contain a similar package of one positional player and two pitching prospects. I suggest the deal would include catcher Blake Swihart, pitcher Henry Owens, and another pitching prospects (Trey Ball, Allen Webster?)

The Motivation to make this happen

Continually, Red Sox ownership has talked down about handing out long-term deals to players over thirty. In the past, the Red Sox offered Jon Lester four years at a total of $70 million, which many believe that this was a basis and the Red Sox would be willing to go as high as $90 million. If GM Ben Cherington is running the organization, Lester is gone. In return, they get a Jon Lester-esque pitcher in Cole Hamels (same age, similar stats) at the deal that they want (Hamels has four years left at just under $90 million). Both moves make sense together and recent news suggest that this could happen.

*Credit on knowledge of scouting goes to mlbtraderumors.com and Dan O'Mara

Golfer Rickie Fowler's Recent Success Leads to Eventual Major Championship Win

     You might know him as the man in the orange, golfer Rickie Fowler (my personal favorite) is hotter than ever. Last weekend at Royal Liverpool, Fowler posted four rounds shooting in the 60s which includes a bogey free fourth round. He has finished within the top five in all three major championships held so far this year. In twenty events played, Fowler also has two second place finishes, one third place finish, and five top 10s. By far Rickie Fowler has outplayed his 18^th place in the World Rankings.

     However, Fowler has only one win on the PGA tour, a stat that has many followers still complaining over his Rookie of the Year award over fellow 25 year old Rory McIlroy in 2010. Regardless Fowler has not played bad at all. Last week, Fowler had the most birdies (23) in the Open Championship. In all major championships, Fowler is a combined 18 under par this year. In his career, Fowler has made the top twenty five in 39 percent of the tournaments he has played in, along with 28 top ten finishes, 3 third place finishes, 7 second place finishes, and one win. Fowler has gotten the bad end of the stick his entire career.

     The difference now though is how much Rickie Fowler has matured. When he first joined the tour, Fowler changed the game with fast play and his quirky get-ups, also while showing a bit of cockiness. Now he has taken a different approach. Since the hiring of his new swing coach Butch Harmon in 2013, Fowler has taken a more relaxed approach. He looks more comfortable with his swing and calm while on the golf course. In a recent interview per bleacherreport.com, Fowler was asked about his game, saying “You can’t get ahead of yourself. You have to stay patient. You have to stay in the moment and keep going through the process.”

     With his new approach, it is only time when Fowler wins again on the PGA Tour. As Fowler keeps practicing those putts and staying out of trouble on the golf course, I believe Rickie Fowler will win a major in his lifetime, probably sooner rather than later.

Red Sox Rant: The Case for Jon Lester

     Fans love him and want him. Ownership? Not so much. The player: Jon Lester. The hot topic within the Red Sox organization is the pursuit of resigning Jon Lester. They have the money to pay him and they cannot afford to lose him, so it makes sense to resign him correct? So what are they Red Sox waiting for?

     Ownership is being very careful in saying they do not want to bring him back. In a quote from the Boston Globe, owner John Henry said “virtually all of the underpaid players are under 30 and virtually all the overpaid players are over 30. Yet teams continue to extravagantly overpay for players above the age of 30.” The message: We are not going to pay Jon Lester.

     During the Theo Epstein times, the team faulted on the contracts of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett. Since, they have dished out user friendly contracts to players such as Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Jonny Gomes, etc. They elect to give out two or three year deals at the expense of more money per year. Simply, Henry refuses to commit big money in the long term.

     However, Henry must give a little. Signing Jon Lester is a must. No more disgustingly low contract offers, no more gimmicks, just give the man his money and accept that he is willing to take a slight discount in order to stay at home in Boston. Here is what the Red Sox miss not signing Lester:

2008: 210 innings pitched (IP), 16 Wins, 3.21 Earned Run Average (ERA).

2009: 203 IP, 15 Wins, 3.41 ERA

2010: 208 IP, 19 Wins, 3.25 ERA

2011: 191 IP, 15 Wins, 3.47 ERA

2012: 205 IP, 9 Wins, 4.82 ERA

2013: 213 IP, 15 Wins, 3.75 ERA

2014*:  137 IP, 10 Wins, 2.50 ERA

*Season still in progress

     Need I remind you of his stats in the playoffs? In eleven starts, Lester has six wins and an ERA of 2.11. In the World Series? Three starts, three wins, 0.43 ERA. Lester is amazingly good in the regular season and abnormally good in the playoffs.

     If the Red Sox refuse to budge from their offer, they must have a replacement in mind. Cole Hamels’s name has been thrown around. It would take three good prospects to get him here though. They could pursue James Shields in free agency, a personal favorite of mine. They can also look internally for a solution.

Rubby De La Rosa has pitched very well this year, along with Brandon Workman. They will both find themselves in the rotation next year. Allen Webster has experience in the majors and has pitched to a 4-4 record and a 3.05 ERA in Triple A this year. They also have prospects Henry Owens, Matt Barnes, and Anthony Ranaudo waiting in the wings.

     Lester’s situation is not easy. Teams such as the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Detroit Tigers will give him the money he wants, but if Lester really wants to stay in Boston, he will have to put up with the negotiations. The Red Sox must get serious as well. No more low-balling. Give the man his money because the Red Sox will lose one of the best starters in the American League to a rival.

Monday's Red Sox Rant: Pierzynski, Pedroia, and Uehara

     What a difference a week makes. At this time last week, I said the Red Sox were out. Now after an A.J. Pierzynski DFA and three wins in four days, I somehow believe the Red Sox are back in it. I even have a pending bet that the Red Sox will only be four games out of the wild card at the trade deadline. This youth movement feels like a completely new team.

     Regardless, I don’t believe the Red Sox should be buyers. They should still trade Jake Peavy and maybe John Lackey, but they should not break the bank for someone like Andre Ethier or Giancarlo Stanton. The rookies are what makes this team watchable, fun, and win. Don’t ruin this. However, Whatever the Red Sox do, do not trade Koji Uehara! I know I was all in favor of trading him, but this now goes beyond the point of getting value for him. If the Sox trade Uehara, it signals to fans that this season is over, a wash, it doesn’t mean anything. In fact, they should resign Uehara next year as well. Having a dominant closer indicates that the team will compete. If they throw anybody in there, it indicates that the Sox are not trying to compete. Trading Uehara is now very risky, a risk the Sox should not take.

     For my next point, I want to address the acquisitions the Red Sox made this offseason. Thinking about the unofficial halfway point of the season, I now consider their offseason a failure. Look at who they got: Pierzynski, Burke Badenhop, Edward Mujica, Jonathan Herrera, and Grady Sizemore. Pierzynski and Sizemore are gone. Herrera played so bad that he was demoted. Mujica is so unstable he can only come in during mop up situations. The only successful acquisition was Badenhop, a staple in the bullpen. Cherington’s offseason deserves a big, fat F.

     Also, good luck to those participating in tonight’s home run derby. My prediction is Yeonis Cespedes over against Troy Tulowitzki. Too bad Pedroia is not an all-star. He has the perfect swing for the event. If he ever participated in the event, hands-down I would pick him to win. Just look at this swing:

MLB's Five Biggest All-star Snubs

     Now that Major League Baseball’s All-Star rosters have settled in, per usual players make the team that most don’t believe should have and then players get left off that most believe should have made the team. Everybody wants that one player from their home team to make it or that one player that they kept tabs on. In the end, we always get disappointed. I have created the best list of five players that got snubbed by this year’s all-star selections.

5.OF Corey Dickerson (Colorado Rockies)

Stat Line: 11 Home Runs, 34 Runs batted in, 6 stolen bases, 14 doubles, 3 triples, and a .328 AVG with 0 Fielding Errors

     Dickerson doesn’t get any consideration coming from the second worst team in baseball and only having 223 Plate Appearances. But in those Plate Appearances, Dickerson has been very productive. Not only has Dickerson been good at the plate, he has been pretty good playing the field as well. I don’t think Dickerson gathers enough evidence to take a spot from someone else, but Dickerson has been very productive for a bad team and it would have been great to see him get some acknowledgement for that.

4. CL Koji Uehara (Boston Red Sox)

Stat Line: 18 Saves, 1.30 ERA, 52 Strikeouts, 25 Hits, 6 Walks, 0.74 WHIP in 41 Innings pitched

     Uehara gets the short end of the stick being on a last place team in a group of very good closers amongst the American League. Still, Uehara has been the most consistent pitcher on the Red Sox staff. For a 39 year old pitcher, this was probably his only chance to get onto the team as well. If the Red Sox were in first place, I bet he makes it on, but for now Uehara sits as the fourth biggest snub.

3. 1B Anthony Rizzo (Chicago Cubs)

Stat Line: 18 Home Runs, 47 Runs Batted In, 13 doubles, 57 Runs, 50 walks, .274 AVG

     Rizzo falls short at a very stacked position in the National League. However, Rizzo still has a chance to make the roster via MLB’s final vote. Rizzo has my vote. The fact that Rizzo plays for the Chicago Cubs might have impacted the decision, because I argued that Rizzo has a bigger impact than Freddie Freeman, the reserve. Rizzo doesn’t match up in batting average and doubles compared to Freeman (.299 average and 26 doubles) but he has a bigger role on the Cubs than Freeman and the Braves. Definitely a big snub here. 

2. SP Alfredo Simon (Cincinnati Reds)

Stat Line: 11-3 record, 2.78 ERA, 67 Strikeouts, 90 Hits, 1.05 WHIP in 110 Innings pitched

Before the selections came out, I was pushing for Simon. I was really surprised when he was not selected due to his success. Currently Simon is tied for second in wins in baseball (tied for first in the National League). Who is he tied with? Adam Wainwright and Zach Grienke, both all-stars. Simon also has the lowest WHIP and the least amount of hits out of the three. What makes it even worse is that teammate Aroldis Chapman was selected. Chapman missed the first month of the season with an injury. Big snub right here.

1. CL Houston Street (San Diego Padres)

Stat Line: 23 Saves, 1.13 ERA, 33 strikeouts, 18 Hits in 33 Innings pitched

     Leaving Houston Street off of the NL roster is perplexing because of the other players who made it.  Tony Walker of the Pirates and Pat Neshek of the Cardinals? One could even question Chapman again here. They have all pitched well, but better than Street? What makes it even more perplexing is his teammate, pitcher Tyson Ross, was selected instead. Ross has pitched well (2.93 ERA in 116 innings) but I don’t think anyone thought he would get it over Street, the anchor to a poor Padres staff. The surrounding circumstances makes Street the number one biggest all-star snub.

Monday's Red Sox Rant: July's Trade Deadline

     When the Red Sox took two out of three from the Yankees, things were looking better for the Sox. Then they followed up with being swept by the Chicago Cubs, along with going 1-5 on this current home stand. Now it cannot look any bleaker. With a record of 39-49 and sitting in last place, the Red Sox probably will not be playing October baseball this year.

    So, other than October baseball, July brings another one of my favorite times- the trade deadline. I love the wheeling and dealing, moving prospects out of desperation and seeing teams make a push for the missing pieces as they attempt to make a run at the playoffs. It’s where teams show their true identities and make gambles. I love it.

     With the trade deadline on my mind, I have devised a couple of thoughts about how the Red Sox’s deadline should look like for this Red Sox Rant:

At the Deadline, Red Sox need to trade Catcher A.J. Pierzynski and call up Christian Vazquez

     A.J. Pierzynski has no impact on this Red Sox team. With or without Pierzynski, the Red Sox have the same chances at a playoff run. And, if they ultimately decide they are not in contention, Red Sox Nation will not blame it on a Pierzynski trade.

     At first, I thought the Sox should bring up Dan Butler. Butler is 27 years old and has more service time in the minors than Vazquez, who is only 23. But then I looked up Butler's struggles at triple A and how he is not really considered a prospect, so I elected to decide to call up Vazquez. Vazquez is considered as the Red Sox’s ninth best prospect. Bringing up Vazquez falls in line with the Mookie Betts call up and the awarded playing time to Bogaerts and Bradley Jr. in attempt to let the youth play. They should give Vazquez a small taste of the big leagues before he earns full time catching duties. Now is the best time to do so.

Dealing closer Koji Uehara is a must at the deadline.

     At 39 years old, many will consider Uehara as the current best closer in the game. Until last week. The untouchable closer was hit hard twice, giving up three runs and four hits in three innings. Uehara was granted the loss in one of those games. At 39, all pitchers have one leg out the door and I think Uehara is finally showing signs. This makes it the perfect time to deal him away. With the Red Sox struggling, they should maximize their future gains through Uehara by getting a good prospect in return. The best closer in the game will not make a difference on this team.

If the Red Sox trade Uehara, Andrew Miller should become the new closer

     Back in 2012 when Andrew Bailey went down to a thumb injury, my top two picks (in order) to take over closing situations were Andrew Miller and Alfredo Aceves. In a failed experiment, unfortunately the Red Sox granted Aceves the role. But still, Miller has a good frame (6’7”) and has the stats to back him up. In 33.2 innings, Miller has a 2.41 ERA with 22 hits and 55 strikeouts. If Uehara is not closing, Miller is the best candidate. I would give Miller the chance, and then the team could always fall back on Junichi Tazawa.

     With the Red Sox sitting at nine games out of a wild card spot, the Red Sox probably will not be buyers at this year’s deadline. But in a perfect world, the Red Sox would be the best team in baseball. If it were so, I have a couple moves that would fit the team. They would solidify the right side of their infield and acquire someone in the outfield who is actually good. I would have them acquiring third baseman Chase Headley of the San Diego Padres and left fielder Josh Willingham of the Minnesota Twins. With Headley rather down this season, he wouldn’t cost a huge prospect. The same goes for Willingham who is coming off injury.