2019 MLB Playoff Predictions

I still can’t believe that a team like the Red Sox, who had an almost 20-game winner, three players hit more than 30 home runs with a fourth that hit 29 and two players produce 100 RBIs and 100 runs, only wins 84 games. In business though, the cash cow doesn’t cause bankruptcy. Companies usually go under when they over invest. The little expenses start to add up and all of a sudden, they can’t afford the whole production. This is what seemingly happened to the Red Sox. They over paid for guys like Nathan Eovaldi, David Price and Steve Pierce and in return, handicapped themselves and let themselves without much ability to do anything this offseason if the Red Sox want to get under the luxury tax threshold. In return, we have a postseason without Boston baseball.

With October baseball set to begin without Boston, here are the official Lewis and Sports MLB Playoff Predictions.

AL Wild Card

Oakland A’s vs Tampa Bay Rays

In my Texas Rangers franchise, the Oakland A’s went through a reidentification process and renamed themselves the Oakland Beavers. Maybe that makes me biased, but the playoffs generally come down to the best pitching staff. The Indians began the playoff-bullpen archetype by employing Andrew Miller almost every night for multiple innings. Then the Astros took that and used starters as relievers, which Alex Cora then took to Boston. I think the Rays are better equipped for this new process, while the A’s might have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. All the Rays have to do is hit in this game, which is sometimes hard for them. I’ll take the Rays though.

NL Wild Card

Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers

To me, the Nationals have turned themselves into one of the most intriguing teams in the playoffs. Since the end of May, the Nationals have the best record (69-36 for a .657 winning percentage). I also feel like their trio of starters in Stephen Strasburg-Patrick Corbin-Max Scherzer make them better suited for a short series. In an otherwise mediocre season, the Brewers turned themselves into one of the hottest teams in baseball. This reminds me last of the Colorado Rockies’ home-away split. I like the matchup because of the recent success of both teams, but I will go with the more consistent Nationals. Lets just hope their bullpen holds up.

ALDS

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins

This series could turn into a slugfest. Neither team has exceptionally strong starting pitching but both teams have very good hitting. The biggest obstacle for the Yankees will be the loss of Domingo German. Still, I think Masahiro Tanaka will hold up, while the Yankees have 306 homers without most of their opening day lineup. I’m taking the Yankees in this slugfest.

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays

I don’t have much to contest here. I think the Astros have the best overall team in baseball and no team that takes them in this opening round has a true shot at beating the Astros in a best of five series. Facing Garret Cole-Justin Verlander-Zach Greinke makes it extremely hard for any team to take two-of-three, which is what it will ultimately take in facing this Astros team. I just don’t see it happening. Astros in this one.

NLDS

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals

Before the season ended, I looked for teams that had outside forces that one could say caused them to outperform. By this, I mean, the Red Sox had the Boston bombing in 2013, the Houston Astros had Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Teams generally play better when they’re playing for something greater than the game. I thought St. Louis might have had something like that, but I didn’t find anything relevant, which makes this all pointless other than for a shout out to organizational behavior. These two teams are eerily similar. They have a decent collection of hitters and pitchers and will bank on a few players to carry the rest of the team. St. Louis has an older roster with some more experience, so I like that over this young Braves team.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals

If this ends up true, this might become the best series of the postseason. Both teams rely on their starting pitching. The Dodgers have only a slight 4-3 advantage in the season series against the Nationals, which makes me feel better about believing that these teams are much closer than we think. They were built similarly, focusing on starting pitching. Generally, if I were to make a bet on this series, I would bet on the Dodgers. But I think the Nationals will make things competitive and probably have it in them to take down the Dodgers, so I will take the Nationals in this series.

ALCS

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees

I think we all expected this matchup. The Astros and Yankees were the two best teams in the American League and probably the two best teams in the MLB all season. I think losing Domingo German takes away the Yankees biggest ability to win games this postseason and even though the Yankees are more than one man, I take the consistency and potency of the Astros.

NLCS

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals

I don’t think you will see this matchup from many predictors. It will make it feel all the better when it happens though. Again, the Nationals seem like the better of the two teams in this matchup. They hit well and I think they will capitalize on any and all pitching that comes their way. As long as their bullpen holds up, the Nationals have a real shot at winning this matchup and getting to the World Series.

World Series

Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals

For all the hype I created for the Nationals, it ends here. I don’t think anyone will take down the Astros in the pursuit to the World Series crown. In a league full of great teams and then some very bad teams, the Astros sit on top of the rest. They have the pitching, the hitting and the fielding. They have star power and several players primed for breakout performances this postseason. It creates the perfect blend for World Series Champions.

World Series Winner: Houston Astros.

Statistically Replacing Rick Porcello

The Boston Red Sox will have to manage two things this offseason: the free agency of Rick Porcello and a seemingly tight-as-ever payroll. The Red Sox have committed about $240 million to players this season, which puts the team in the 42% tax rate and sets them up to operate at a net loss again this season. Because of this, it makes sense to move Porcello, an inconsistent pitcher making $21.12 million per year. It would save the team approximately $9.4 million if they moved him now (Porcello makes about $130,000 a game, which means he has earned approximately $11.7 million of his $21.12 million salary) and also recuperate the team's farm system. However, this is the Boston Red Sox who can afford to pay Pablo Sandoval over $15 million a year to play for another team and can afford to operate aggressively, unlike a team such as the Tampa Bay Rays. This also doesn't mention that the team needs to add at least one starter to remain competitive, never mind lose one.

By signing Nathan Eovaldi, and after reading this column by Rob Bradford, it’s all but certain that the Red Sox will allow Porcello to return next season. However, the purpose of this article is not to lecture on how the Red Sox should trade away Porcello to recuperate prospects and retain money, nor state the Red Sox's possible intention insert Eovaldi as the fourth starter in 2020. The purpose of this article is to remind everyone that even with the return of Eovaldi to the rotation now and into the future, the Red Sox still need pitching help. And if the Red Sox won't have Porcello back, not that they should either, they still need pitching help. And statistically, there are much better options out there for a fraction of the price.

I got this idea after reading Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller’s book The Only Rule is it has to Work. I consider Lindbergh and Miller as Godfather’s of statistical baseball analysis. They're two minds at the forefront of how the game of baseball that we know today where starters relieve openers, thousands of shifts occur each year and closers no longer pitch just the ninth inning, but in the highest leverage situation possible. I recommend this book not only as a story about baseball, but also for baseball fanatics who want to read about the inception of the game of baseball how we know it today.

This book and their podcast, Effectively Wild, has made me pay more attention to advanced statistics such as FIP and ERA+ than I previously had. They have inspired my belief that undervalued players are everywhere and if the Oakland A's could use Scott Hatteberg to replace Jason Giambi or if a bunch of baseball nerds like myself can use advanced stats to dominate independent baseball, the Red Sox definitely have room to adapt in this new era. Porcello, who currently has an 89 ERA+, 4.53 FIP , 10 H/9 and 2.8 BB/9 (an average ERA+ is 100, while a 4.53 FIP is like having a 4.53 ERA), is the first culprit. Albeit owning a Cy Young trophy, Porcello has been one of the most inconsistent yet consistent pitchers on the Red Sox staff. He's good for 33 starts every year, but those starts aren't necessarily good ones. If the team is paying $21.12 million for a former Cy Young winner with a 6-7 record and a 5.33 ERA this season to go along with a 4.31 lifetime ERA, there must be a better return on investment somewhere in the league. I’ve done the math on next year’s free agency class and came up with a couple of candidates.

Jhoulys Chacin

Jhoulys Chacin is an intriguing option. Chacin dominated early-on in his career while pitching in hitter-friendly Coors Field for the Colorado Rockies. In 2010, he pitched to a 3.28 ERA and a 9 K/9 rate with a 142 ERA+ and 1.27 WHIP. He went 38-48 in six years in Colorado, which does not reflect a pitcher who also had a 3.78 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 120 ERA+ and 4.03 FIP even after a tumultuous 2014 riddled with injuries that led to his release from the organization. He has since worked his way back to the Major Leagues after signing a couple different Minor League deals and has posted back-to-back seasons with at least 10 wins, 32 starts and an ERA+ of over 100 before his down-year this season. In 35 starts in 2018 for the Milwaukee Brewers, Chacin went 15-8 with a 1.16 WHIP, 118 ERA+ and 4.03 FIP. Chacin’s historical performance indicates that he’s better than his current 3-9 record, 5.40 ERA and 83 ERA+. Chacin is making only $6.75 million this season. He is a prime example of undervaluation based on advanced statistics that could outperform Porcello fractions of the cost. General Manager Dave Dombrowski has shown willingness to dish out money to pitchers with an injury history too when he gave Eovaldi $68 million over four years.

Gio Gonzalez

Gio Gonzalez might be one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game, probably because he is a change-up pitcher in a slider-dominate game. Gonzalez made $14 million at his peak with the Washington Nationals where he went 86-65 with a 3.62 ERA, 8.7 K/9 rate and a 1.31 WHIP along with a 112 ERA+ and 3.45 FIP in seven years with the team. After being forced to sign a Minor League deal with the New York Yankees when no team showed interest in signing him to a long-term deal, Gonzalez later signed with the Brewers upon his release from the Yankees, where he has pitched to a 2-1 record and 3.19 ERA in six starts to go along with a 142 ERA+ and 3.23 FIP before going on the injury list with a dead arm. Gonzalez comes with an injury risk, but yet again proves that he can outperform Porcello at a fraction of a cost. After seeing the market for Gonzalez this past offseason, paired with the fact that next year’s starting pitching free agency class looks weak, I can picture him getting a deal similar to Rich Hill, where he signed a one-year, $6 million deal with the Oakland A’s after pitching extremely well for the Red Sox upon his return to the Majors after a stint in independent baseball.

Adam Wainwright

Let’s be clear: Adam Wainwright will never return to his dominant-self prior to all the injuries he faced, including Tommy John surgery. Even if Wainwright won’t return to a state where he can strikeout over 200 batters in over 200 innings with a sub-3.00 ERA and a 155 ERA+, he has still been a decent pitcher post injuries and into his elder years. So far this season, Wainwright is 5-7 with a 4.31 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 87.2 innings with a 98 ERA+ and 4.51 FIP. Not great, but it mimics Porcello’s career stat line (4.31 ERA, a 6.6 K/9 rate, a 100 ERA+ and 4.05 FIP) and at 38-years old, he will come at an extreme discount (Wainwright will make only $2 million this season). The thing that will stand in the way of a possible Wainwright signing is his Cardinals-lifer status. If he plans on pitching in 2020, he most likely will pitch for the Cardinals or retire.

OOTP series: April 2018

Getting all literary, the start of the baseball season symbolizes rebirth, right? A new baseball season metaphorically represents life and death. It is an infant born in April, grows through the summer and eventually fades away in October. Well, according to Out of the Park Baseball, not so much.

On day one of the new job, I received an email from Major League Baseball. It’s the commissioner.

We are sad to inform the other teams of Major League Baseball that Jerry Reinsdorf, Owner of the Chicago White Sox has passed away. Reinsdorf will be missed throughout baseball. HIs son will take over the team.

Wow. Way to hit a new General Manager right in the heart on day one...

I mentioned this when beginning this endeavor. The game will sometimes simulate owners passing away. It makes for a realist experience, but I did think it weird that a death occurs right on the first day. The OOTP actually did something to fix this flaw.

New OOTP 19 Update Available (Version 19.5.49)!

- Added Import/Export functions to both the draft pool
- Tweaked down owner death rate & owner selling team rate
- Fixed independent league teams signing MLB-quality players
- And much more...

Full info @https://t.co/ALicMCqKat pic.twitter.com/7cjb8Bdtih

— Out of the Park Baseball (@ootpbaseball) April 25, 2018

The 2018 season actually started off on a good note for the team. The Red Sox won 4-1. Chris Sale pitched seven innings of one run baseball, striking out 11 and earning the win. Craig Kimbrel earned the save and Mookie Betts hit a double and had three RBIs in the win. 1-0 Red Sox.

The team left Tampa with a 1-3 record. To me, that record is a borderline fire-able offense for Alex Cora. Realistically, the Rays are one of the worst teams in the league and the new guy finds it acceptable to go 1-3 in the first series of the season? We want championships, not this garbage. Who does he think he is? Cora you’re...nevermind. The team heads to Miami and Roenis Elias is scheduled to start the first game. Ballsy move. Even more ballsy is the way Elias pitches. He throws 6 ⅓ innings, allowing six hits, one run, one walk, strikes out four and the team wins 6-2. Rafael Devers goes 2-for-4 with one home run and three RBIs. Bravo Cora...Bravo…

Bravo Manager Cora

I also get this message in my inbox:

Honestly, I’m impressed that Ichiro continues to defy logic and is playing baseball at 44 years old. I’m even more impressed that at his old age, Ichiro can hit .464 and even knock a ball out of the park. As the kids say, that's lit. I also get InMail of the MLB power rankings. The team ranked 21st. Basically ninth worst in baseball (checked the math twice. I'm a writer not a mather). When I first saw this, I thought, Who the eff do these people think they are? I understand my team is 3-6 to start the year, but four of my starters currently have a .300 or better batting average in the first 11 games. Sale has a 2.77 ERA, Price 1.38 ERA and Elias 1.42 ERA. Numbers don't lie people!

Eleven games in, I also picked up that Cora has been starting Brock Holt at second base, Mitch Moreland at first base and J.D. Martinez at DH. That means Hanley Ramirez and Eduardo Nunez are delegated to the bench. I find that an interesting move solely because of how well the two have played so far in real life. But I went through the stats and rationalized that Ramirez is a two star player and Nunez 2 ½ starts. In OOTP terms, if a player has three starts, they are generally good enough for a starting role on a Major league roster. Four stars means a player is above average. Five stars and that player is generally an all-star. Ramirez also started the year 0-14 at the plate and Nunez has played in only one game, so that backs up Cora's decision a little.

When Eduardo Rodriguez and Drew Pomeranz come back from the disabled list, I actually sent Hector Velazquez and Brandon Workman to Pawtucket. Both had not met my standards. Workman had a 5.40 ERA and Velazquez lost his only start and sported a negative Wins Above Replacement (WAR). With Elias pitching as well as he had, I fell I had to keep him, giving me a rotation of four lefties. I liked that, but it didn’t last long.

Three innings, six hits and five runs doesn't cut it for the Red Sox. That, and with Brian Johnson returning from the DL, I elected to send Elias back to Pawtucket. Elias is also a ½ star player, compared to Johnson’s two starts, so I went with the stars over everything..

Half-way through the month, I’m honestly pretty furious with the way my team has played to this point of the season. The team is 6-9 and basically last in every category.

I mean, I guess you can say sixth isn’t bad, but a wise man once told me if you’re not first, you’re last. If I’m not making every other team look like they're playing little league around these joints, I’m not happy. I actually thought about trying to trade for a pitcher because I don’t like the bottom half of my rotation, but I elected to not get too rash. I’m a GM, not a scratch ticket gambler.

Four days later and the game makes me eat my words. Rodriguez goes down with a torn rotator cuff, sidelining him for 11 months. I have Steven Wright five days away from returning from the DL, so instead of trying to trade for someone, I decided to call up Elias again and wait out for Wright. I’m also 9-14 and in last place in the American League East at this moment and honestly, I’m pretty frustrated with my team already, especially my pitching. It’s not like they’re bad, they’re top 10 in ERA, runs against and fifth in bullpen ERA. we’re just not winning games. I hate losing.

I finish the month with a 4-2 loss to the Kansas City Royals. Porcello goes six innings of four hit baseball, allowing three runs and striking out five. Our bats just can’t get anything together. Not a single starter is hitting over .280. The team is 11-18 and in last in the AL East. Surprisingly, the Toronto Blue Jays are in first place in the East with a 22-8 record. The Rays are in second with a 20-8 record.
Honestly, April didn’t go the way I wanted it to. Sale ended the month 1-3 with a 6.14 ERA. That blows. Kimbrel is sporting a 0.93 ERA though, which I love. But overall, not a good month. I can hear sports radio now. “This kid blows! Go pound sand Lewis! He’s too young, he’s bound to make these kinds of mistakes!” To that I say:

We’re on to May.