Keys to Patriots 41-14 loss: The Good, The Bad, and They Ughly

The Good: WR Brandon LaFell, 6 catches 119 Yards and 1 Touchdown.

            While there were not many positive things about the Patriots Monday night loss, one positive was wide receiver Brandon LaFell. LaFell had no targets from Brady in the first two games of the season and then only four catches for 45 yards in the third game. LaFell seemed like another botched wide receiver signing in the same column as Danny Amendola and Chad Ochocinco. Then all of a sudden between Brady and Garopollo, LaFell gets 10 targets for six catches, along with a great 44-yard touchdown (play is shown here). Brady and LaFell seemed as if they were finally on the same page.  With the Bills, Jets, and Bears coming up after a hard Cincy matchup, look for more out of LaFell within the coming weeks.

The Bad: Tom Brady being benched for the fourth quarter and Jimmy Garopollo outplays him.

            Tom Brady was awful last night and it was not because of the offensive line. He was overthrowing targets, forcing passes and looked scared to be outside of the pocket. His own awful play led to his benching after a Kansas City interception returned for a touchdown. What makes it worse is that backup quarterback Jimmy Garopollo entered the game and outplayed Brady. Three time Super Bowl champion, two time Super Bowl MVP, along with two time league MVP was outplayed by a rookie out of Eastern Illinois. Garopollo came in and had an opening drive touchdown to Rob Gronkowski, going six for seven on the night for 70 yards and a touchdown. Although Brady will not be replaced, it is never good when your backup out performs your franchise quarterback and future hall of famer.

The Ugly: The Patriots defense giving up 207 rushing yards, 443 total yards, and 41 points.

            The Patriots have seven first round picks playing on the defensive side of the ball and they still looked atrocious. They let running back Jamaal Charles do whatever he wanted. Even backup Knile Davis got in on the fun with 107 yards on 16 carries. The Patriots defense had no way of stopping the run last night and it doesn’t look any better going into the future. They ranked dead last against the run last year and rank 23^rd this year through four games. And they still have to face the likes of Giovani Bernard, CJ Spiller, Matt Forte and Eddie Lacy. If the Patriots want to improve upon last night’s performance and their 2-2 record, it starts with defending the run game.

The Future of Washington: Kirk Cousins

On Sunday, the Washington Redskins were not supposed to have any chance at winning. Not without their franchise quarterback.

In fact, if it were not for poor special team’s play that led to a kick returned for a touchdown, along with a missed 33-yard field goal in the fourth quarter, the Redskins would have won the game.

The fact that the Redskins lost due to special teams indicates that quarterback Kirk Cousins is the team’s future.

In his spot start for Robert Griffin III, Cousins had 427 passing yards along with three touchdowns and an 81-yard touchdown pass to receiver DeSean Jackson. The previous week Cousins came in after Griffin III went down to injury. He had 250 passing yards and two touchdowns en route to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 41-10.

This kid needs to be the future.

Part of his success could be due to new head coach Jay Gruden. Gruden runs the West Coast offense, which fits Cousins’s play style perfectly. He looks more comfortable than Griffin III does taking snaps. Cousins also has a rocket for an arm and great football instincts. He isn’t some do-good backup like Matt Cassel was when Tom Brady went down during the 2008 season.

While Cousins has played, the Redskins have scored 75 total points. Yes, 75 points in two games. Previously the Redskins had only scored 110 points in their last eight games, all while Griffin III started. Cousins has gone three-and-out only twice this season as well.

He also has uncanny speed when releasing the ball. The guy never waits, leading to zero sacks the entire game, the second time since the start of the 2013 season.

Cousins hasn’t been perfect, seeing he has only 284 career passing attempts in a limited amount of games, but he shows signs of a soon-to-be great quarterback. He has exceptional decision-making skills. He rarely tries to jam passes to receivers. It should also be noted that Cousins began the game 12 for 13 when passing and then went 18 for 35 after that stretch. Cousins does have some things he needs to work on.

But with all that said, Cousins has more positives than Robert Griffin III. As long as Cousins continues to progress, there is no reason why he can’t take over the starting role and the franchise. The only thing in his way is three first round picks and a second.

Guest Writer: Keys to Patriots Loss; Preview for Week Two

This article was written by guest writer Abdul Rauf, a sophomore at Assumption College and New England Patriots Fan. This article was written solely for the purpose of lewisandsports.blogspot.com

By Abdul Rauf

What happened Sunday? A common question amongst Patriots fans. The Patriots 33-20 loss to the Dolphins was a game of two halves. The first was about a stout defense and an efficient offense. The second half was about an offense that could not even muster up 100 yards and a defense that allowed 23 unanswered points. The following is my breakdown of what went right and wrong for the Pats on Sunday.

Quarterback- Despite Tom Brady leading the Patriots to 20 first-half points and a 10 point lead, he never looked comfortable. Brady had too many underthrows, overthrows and even a few lobs that, lucky enough, were not intercepted. For me, there were two big problems.

One: Brady kept trying to jam passes to Tight End Rob Gronkowski and Wide Receiver Julian Edelman. This was highlighted by Brady clearly overthrowing Edelman, and then proceeding to show his frustration. On an earlier play, Brady proceeded to throw at Gronkowski’s feet in double coverage, but to no avail. The frustration showed in the second half when Brady had several key chances, but ultimately could not put together a meaningful drive. Although the receivers did a valiant job, “Tom Terrific” could not find an open receiver. When he locked onto a receiver, Miami’s defense knew and took advantage.

Two: Body language. We have all seen Brady frustrated. I think he does this out of his frustration knowing he can do better. On Sunday, Brady did not look frustrated, he looked defeated. This would of course be fine in the playoffs, but not week one against Miami (not exactly the Broncos there). These are all areas that Brady needs to fix and although I will always believe in him, I cannot say he believes in himself. Can someone say declining? Whoops.

Offensive Line- Lets cut to the chase, they were bad. The amount of times Brady got rushed by Miami’s defense would kill any quarterback. I do not understand why they traded Logan Mankins and then kept Marcus Cannon not starting, but that is a discussion for another day. Whoever makes these decisions has to do a better job than this. The second half was brutal to watch Brady try to get a drive together, all while the o-line did not do him any favors. The o-line has to step up, or at least try to do their jobs. While coach Belichick will blame it on executions, he should be given some of the blame for the offensive line.

Defensive Line- I worry the most about the defensive line. The d-line was getting beat regularly, and not because they were blowing assignments. The Dolphins faced almost no pressure in the second while Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill had more than enough time to execute his passes. As sports radio host Mike Felger said on his show, it is not like they did anything wrong, they just did not play well enough. We shall truly see what the defense is made of against the Vikings’ receiver Cordarrelle Patterson and running game. Once again, I do not understand the coaching assignments. Why is Chandler Jones two-gapping? Vince Wilfork by himself? My hope this was only an assignment problem and not a problem of personal ability. If not, the Pats could be in trouble.

Coaching- Where do I even begin? I do not understand any of the coaching decisions on Sunday. What is going on with the offensive line rotation? Why is there so much passing and abandonment of the run? What happened to the aggressive defense? Why all the zone play? It does not even stop there. It seemed as in the first half the defense had the ability do what it wanted, but then had to play so conservative in the second half? I was hoping for a smash-mouth Patriots defense, but what I received was a confused ball of mess. The coaching needs to get back to the basics and let everybody play aggressive and smart. No more unnecessary complex plays. Josh McDaniels said he did not his offense throwing as much, so why did he not do anything about during the game? The Patriots certainly had enough drives to attack with a balanced approach. The coaching looked as though they were adapting with the times, but in the second half they looked like more the Patriots defense of the past.

Looking Towards Next Week- I expect the Patriots to get much better. Despite the poor play on defense and turnovers, the receivers made good plays, especially receiver Kenbrell Thompkins. Brady needs to take more chances in order to succeed. There were too many short passes and predictable offensive situations. The receivers need to continue to do what they do best. The o-line needs to get back to the basics and the defense needs to put on pressure. Both performances on Sunday were unacceptable. The Vikings will test the Patriots in both offensive versatility and with a stout defense. Hopefully the Patriots are able to get firing on all cylinders and win decisively on this Sunday.

Any disagreements? Comments feel free to comment below or contact me at abdul.rauf@assumption.edu

Bill James the Source to Red Sox Woes?

When trying to find the reason why the Boston Red Sox performed poorly so far this season, one must look at senior advisor of baseball operations and statistician Bill James. Annually, James publishes a baseball handbook full of player projections and statistics. In this year’s publication, James has projected many Red Sox players higher than their actual production. As a man hired by the Red Sox with a position of importance, the Red Sox probably take his projections more serious than other teams. Here are a couple of players that James missed horribly with his projections.

            Xander Bogaerts: .283 BA, .357 OBP, 19 HR, 84 RBI

            Jackie Bradley Jr.: .248 BA, .329 OBP, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 13 SB

            Wil Middlebrooks: .266 BA, .310 OBP, 32 HR, 102 RBI

            Jake Peavy: 11-7, 163 IP, 3.31 ERA, 150 SO

            Clay Buchholz: 12-9, 190 IP, 3.64 ERA, 153 SO

            Without going into their actual statistics (which are bad), clearly James had these players as key components to a playoff run by the Red Sox. Being in an important position for the Red Sox, one is led to believe that they took these projections seriously. So when entering the offseason, it puts emphasis on that maybe the Red Sox did not go after a third baseman because Middlebrooks would probably bounce back. Maybe they did not get another starting pitcher because Peavy and Buchholz seemed solid. Maybe they saw Bradley Jr. as a viable offensive weapon.

            Bill James is a smart guy. I like viewing his projections each year before the season. But I do not view them as a great source for what the future looks like. I think that the Red Sox do. When Cherington has James whispering in his ear all of these projections on players bouncing back and having great seasons, one has to question whether it changes how the Red Sox went about fixing this team. Clearly it did not work, showing how they completely stripped down their roster since the start of the season. I like the prospectus of the 2015 Red Sox and I think James is not part of it.

Verlander evidence that Red Sox ownership's philosophy is correct?

After many years of “power pitching” from Justin Verlander, it has finally caught up to him. After being pulled from his last start due to  shoulder soreness, Verlander has not been his spectacular self this season, pitching to a 4.76 ERA in 158 innings, along with a league leading 171 hits and 84 earned runs. His strikeouts remain down (118) while his walks have increased (55). Now at 31 years old with six years and $162 million left on his contract, does Justin Verlander support Red Sox ownership’s philosophy of not giving out long term deals to players over thirty?

Before turning 30, Verlander was the most dominant pitcher in the game. He averaged 17 wins, 220 innings, and 206 strikeouts. During this time, Verlander led the league in strikeouts three times, innings three times, and wins three times. In 2011, when Verlander was 28 years old, he pitched 251 innings, gathering 250 strikeouts, 24 wins, and an ERA of 2.40, leading the league in all categories, earning himself a Cy Young award and MVP in the same year. In seasons where Verlander was 30 or older, he has a combined 23-23 record and a 4.02 ERA. His strikeouts and innings have decreased as well. Injuries have probably caused these decreases, but old age has caused these injuries.

            During the offseason, Verlander suffered an injury that required “core muscle repair” surgery. Very vague, I am not even sure what this is. Research tells me that this is somewhat like a sports hernia, where hip movement is rather hard and painful. High levels of torque causes pain, thus needing the surgery. Verlander’s power pitching mechanics leave him vulnerable to high torque situations, which probably causes the problems in his mechanics.

            Verlander delivers that ball with a big leg kick, as you can see in this video. From his leg kick, Verlander begins to twist his hips towards the plate. If he cannot fully twist his hips, gaining that torque, his mechanics will be off. I believe this injury has effected Verlander’s poor season the most. The reason for this injury? Old age.

            When pitchers rely on velocity, they breakdown as they age. Having pitched 1,800 innings adds to Verlander’s sudden decline as well. Justin Verlander’s sudden decline due to injuries is proof that the Red Sox are right in saying that players over 30 usually do not live up to the contract.

Red Sox Rant: Does Bradley Jr. have a place in Red Sox future?

            Two years ago, owners assured Red Sox Nation that Jackie Bradley Jr. would be next in line to take over center field duties. They assured that Bradley Jr. would be a big time player, able to compete at a high level. Once considered a valuable trade chip, now he would be a throw-in in a deal for Giancarlo Stanton. Jackie Bradley Jr. has been awful at the plate. So bad that the Red Sox should look elsewhere for a center fielder.

            With 427 major league at bats under his belt, Bradley Jr. is hitting .206/.281/.300. Even worse is his strikeout numbers. Bradley Jr. has 138 career strikeouts, accounting for 32 percent of his at bats. In contrast, he only has 88 career hits and 70 so far through the 2014 season, third worse among MLB starters. Statistician Bill Chuck took Bradley Jr.’s numbers to another level, making it seem even more gruesome. Chuck reported that Bradley Jr. has been held hitless in 52 games this season and has struck out in 68 games, as well as 28 multiple strikeout games. He has the most strikeouts for hitters with less than five home runs. Also, Bradley Jr. has a .214 batting average at Fenway Park and .218 in other parks. His numbers are terrible.

            Still think that Bradley Jr. has room to improve due to his age? Not so much. Of all players that have 400 plate appearances with an at-bat-to-strikeout ratio of 4.5 and Isolated Power (ISO) of .100 or less, Michael Bourn tops the list. Bradley Jr. and Bourn have similar defensive capabilities, but Bourn could run the bases much better before his injuries than Bradley Jr. can. Most of his value as a starter is in his base running abilities, able to steal bases at high rates. Bradley Jr. does not have that capability. The rest of the players on the list include Lorenzo Cain, Gregor Blanco, and Brendan Ryan. All three had high expectations (like Bradley Jr.) coming into the league, but have faltered into backup roles without much value for a franchise. Bradley Jr. fits into that category much better than with Michael Bourn.

            Jackie Bradley Jr. has disappointed owners, managers, and fans alike with his sub-par plate discipline. Bradley Jr. will never hit for power, which makes his strikeout ratios rather scary. Now that Mookie Betts is knocking on the door, Bradley Jr. could very well lose his starting role come the start of next season. Without improvement at the plate, Bradley Jr. will find himself as a non-impact bench player for the Boston Red Sox.

Red Sox Rant: Contenders or Pretenders?

      With this year’s trade deadline behind us, the Red Sox made several key moves for the future. They brought in outfielders Yeonis Cespedes and Allen Craig, along with pitcher Joe Kelly rather than prospects. General manager Ben Cherington assured the fans that they will be competing next year. Red Sox Nation feels like a honey-moon phase following the deadline: everybody wants to watch this team again, buy their jerseys, and purchase tickets in preparation for next year. Personally, I find this as the biggest PR move the Red Sox ownership and front office has ever pulled off under the regime of John Henry.

     The Red Sox stink. They are in last place and the sixth worst team in baseball. And as I previously mentioned, fans are buying jerseys, tickets, and watching every game in excitement to see these newly acquired players. Ownership is making enormous amounts of money on a last place team, and I just don’t want to buy in. I don’t want to cheer for this last place team like it is 2004. Sorry, but I just can’t stress how much I won’t buy into this PR move.

     Ownership also has a small market mentality, which I hate. They traded Jon Lester because they were not going to resign him. No one knows if they will resign Cespedes when his contract expires after the 2015 season. It feels like the Red Sox will let their top talent leave after arbitration years from now on, a move similar to the Miami Marlins, Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays, and pretty much every team with a very small payroll.

     And do not start with the “they still have a $160 million payroll” crap. They have such a high payroll because they overspent on B rated players. They spent $13 million on Victorino, $10 million on Drew, $14 million on Dempster, and $8 million on Pierzynski. All this money could have gone to Lester, maybe Shin-Soo Choo, possibly Zach Greinke, or even Josh Hamilton. The Red Sox wasted their money on all of these B rated players and brain washed us (the fans) because they won a world series. They got everyone to believe that B rated players are worth more than franchise players.

     Then they used another small market tactic and said they have all this talent, readily available within the next three years. Potential never works. Very few guys have lived up to their potential in the Major Leagues, and none have lived up to potential so far for the Red Sox. Middlebrooks has lost his job twice and was destined to lose it a third time this year. Bradley Jr. cannot hit major league pitchers. Bogaerts has switched positions three different times now and has been pretty bad at the plate. Allen Webster couldn’t even hit a parked car to save his life the way he has pitched in the major leagues.

     But I agree that the Red Sox were smart in what they did. They moved most of their expiring contracts for talent that can help in the future and under team control for several years. But I still believe ownership keeps brain-washing the fans. They make fans buy into “next year” and make everything about “next year” and how they have all these wonderful prospects. I don’t want to wait for next year and I certainly do not want to wait for prospects. They are the Boston Red Sox. They have access to large amounts of money and can buy any player they want. They need to dish out big contracts. They need to compete every year, and they need to be a World Series or bust team. No more small market tactics, just put a playoff team on the field every year.