If you haven’t
found out yet, you’re hearing it now, Jacoby Ellsbury has inked a seven year
deal worth $148 million and an option for an eight year with the New York
Yankees (check out the details here). Not only is this an outrageous
deal for something who is 30 years old, this deal will impact other players
across the league. And the most important player is the Red Sox’s very own ace:
Jon Lester. The deal breaks down into three main reasons why Jon Lester will
become a very rich man one day.
Ability
Last season Ellsbury hit 9 HRs and 53 RBIs, which comes
along with a league leading 52 stolen bases. His season averages stand at 15
HRs, 71 RBIs, and 55 stolen bases, thanks to an outlier of a season in 2011
(Thanks to Baseball Reference). Without that season, Ellsbury stands at 6 HRs,
37 RBIs, and 37 stolen bases per year without that outlier of a season. I
cherish the stolen base as much as any guy, but I like to base my value of production
on home runs and runs batted in. With a bias towards those statistics, I do
believe that Ellsbury’s $21 million annual salary is way overpriced.
Regardless, players with this kind of ability have been given these contracts
left and right. For pitchers of comparable value to Ellsbury (Cliff Lee, Tim
Lincecum, Johan Santana, etc.), they average at an annual salary of $20
million. Many consider Lester a pitcher of similar quality or even better.
Age
Ellsbury comes into the deal at 30 years old. Right now
Lester is younger by a hair, coming in at age 29. The two player’s ages and
value are pretty comparable. Many of
these players who get these player friendly contracts come in at the same age
as well. These big contracts come around the ages of 29-31. This leads to the
inevitable of Lester’s future contract situation.
Verdict
Whether it is in Boston or somewhere else, Jon Lester will
get a contract similar to Ellsbury. Lester probably will get something around
$22 million over 7 years. What does this mean? The Red Sox better be ready to
pay their ace. If they were not willing to give Ellsbury the deal, and for good
reason, they better be willing to give it to Lester. However, I do not believe
the deal is absolutely necessary. With one of the deepest farm systems in the
league, the Red Sox do have many young arms waiting in the wings of Lester. The
question becomes: Do the Red Sox trust these young guys in order to save some
money? Or do they buck up and give Lester the big bucks, ensuring they keep a
proven ace, especially in the playoffs.
In my own opinion, the Red Sox need to be willing to give
Lester the money, and the sooner the better.
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