2019 MLB Playoff Predictions

I still can’t believe that a team like the Red Sox, who had an almost 20-game winner, three players hit more than 30 home runs with a fourth that hit 29 and two players produce 100 RBIs and 100 runs, only wins 84 games. In business though, the cash cow doesn’t cause bankruptcy. Companies usually go under when they over invest. The little expenses start to add up and all of a sudden, they can’t afford the whole production. This is what seemingly happened to the Red Sox. They over paid for guys like Nathan Eovaldi, David Price and Steve Pierce and in return, handicapped themselves and let themselves without much ability to do anything this offseason if the Red Sox want to get under the luxury tax threshold. In return, we have a postseason without Boston baseball.

With October baseball set to begin without Boston, here are the official Lewis and Sports MLB Playoff Predictions.

AL Wild Card

Oakland A’s vs Tampa Bay Rays

In my Texas Rangers franchise, the Oakland A’s went through a reidentification process and renamed themselves the Oakland Beavers. Maybe that makes me biased, but the playoffs generally come down to the best pitching staff. The Indians began the playoff-bullpen archetype by employing Andrew Miller almost every night for multiple innings. Then the Astros took that and used starters as relievers, which Alex Cora then took to Boston. I think the Rays are better equipped for this new process, while the A’s might have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. All the Rays have to do is hit in this game, which is sometimes hard for them. I’ll take the Rays though.

NL Wild Card

Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers

To me, the Nationals have turned themselves into one of the most intriguing teams in the playoffs. Since the end of May, the Nationals have the best record (69-36 for a .657 winning percentage). I also feel like their trio of starters in Stephen Strasburg-Patrick Corbin-Max Scherzer make them better suited for a short series. In an otherwise mediocre season, the Brewers turned themselves into one of the hottest teams in baseball. This reminds me last of the Colorado Rockies’ home-away split. I like the matchup because of the recent success of both teams, but I will go with the more consistent Nationals. Lets just hope their bullpen holds up.

ALDS

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins

This series could turn into a slugfest. Neither team has exceptionally strong starting pitching but both teams have very good hitting. The biggest obstacle for the Yankees will be the loss of Domingo German. Still, I think Masahiro Tanaka will hold up, while the Yankees have 306 homers without most of their opening day lineup. I’m taking the Yankees in this slugfest.

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays

I don’t have much to contest here. I think the Astros have the best overall team in baseball and no team that takes them in this opening round has a true shot at beating the Astros in a best of five series. Facing Garret Cole-Justin Verlander-Zach Greinke makes it extremely hard for any team to take two-of-three, which is what it will ultimately take in facing this Astros team. I just don’t see it happening. Astros in this one.

NLDS

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals

Before the season ended, I looked for teams that had outside forces that one could say caused them to outperform. By this, I mean, the Red Sox had the Boston bombing in 2013, the Houston Astros had Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Teams generally play better when they’re playing for something greater than the game. I thought St. Louis might have had something like that, but I didn’t find anything relevant, which makes this all pointless other than for a shout out to organizational behavior. These two teams are eerily similar. They have a decent collection of hitters and pitchers and will bank on a few players to carry the rest of the team. St. Louis has an older roster with some more experience, so I like that over this young Braves team.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals

If this ends up true, this might become the best series of the postseason. Both teams rely on their starting pitching. The Dodgers have only a slight 4-3 advantage in the season series against the Nationals, which makes me feel better about believing that these teams are much closer than we think. They were built similarly, focusing on starting pitching. Generally, if I were to make a bet on this series, I would bet on the Dodgers. But I think the Nationals will make things competitive and probably have it in them to take down the Dodgers, so I will take the Nationals in this series.

ALCS

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees

I think we all expected this matchup. The Astros and Yankees were the two best teams in the American League and probably the two best teams in the MLB all season. I think losing Domingo German takes away the Yankees biggest ability to win games this postseason and even though the Yankees are more than one man, I take the consistency and potency of the Astros.

NLCS

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals

I don’t think you will see this matchup from many predictors. It will make it feel all the better when it happens though. Again, the Nationals seem like the better of the two teams in this matchup. They hit well and I think they will capitalize on any and all pitching that comes their way. As long as their bullpen holds up, the Nationals have a real shot at winning this matchup and getting to the World Series.

World Series

Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals

For all the hype I created for the Nationals, it ends here. I don’t think anyone will take down the Astros in the pursuit to the World Series crown. In a league full of great teams and then some very bad teams, the Astros sit on top of the rest. They have the pitching, the hitting and the fielding. They have star power and several players primed for breakout performances this postseason. It creates the perfect blend for World Series Champions.

World Series Winner: Houston Astros.

Would the Triple Crown Award have Helped J.D. Martinez Win the MVP-Award?

     After the Boston Red Sox signed J.D. Martinez last offseason, the team’s offense went from last in the American League in home runs, second-to-last in slugging percentage and 11^th out of 15 teams in on-base plus slugging (OPS) to first in batting average, slugging, OPS, runs and sixth in home runs. The addition of Martinez, the only major addition to the team’s lineup who also produced 43 home runs and 130 RBI along with a stat line of .330/.402/.629, led many to believe that Martinez had revitalized the Red Sox lineup and brought them from worst to first in most major categories. Although Mookie Betts, who eventually won the American League Most Valuable Player award, led the league in runs, batting average, slugging and finished second in on-base percentage, one can perfectly validate that the addition of Martinez put the Red Sox over the hump. The addition of Martinez was like the addition of Curt Schilling back in 2004. The Red Sox had Pedro Martinez, an ace, but a significant upgrade to their No. 2 starter ultimately put the team over the threshold and into the title of World Series Champions.

            This left fans and I in outcry when they found out Martinez, who many thought would win the MVP award, was not even a finalist for the award. 

JD Martinez not being a finalist for AL MVP is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever seen in my life

— Steve Perrault (@Steve_Perrault) November 5, 2018

Ok so let me get this straight. JD Martinez was left off the ballot for the 3 finalists for AL MVP. Jose Ramirez made it over him

JD Martinez:
BA: .330
HR: 43
RBI's: 130

Jose Ramirez:
BA: .270
HR: 39
RBI's: 105

Does anyone else see the issue here? FIX THIS ISSUE

— Willie J. (@wvizoso411) November 6, 2018

In the era of shifts, launch angles and “home run or bust” mentality, Martinez bucks the trend. An all-around hitter, the Red Sox hadn’t seen a player hit at least 40 home runs, 100 RBIs and .300 in a season since Manny Ramirez did so back in 2004. Even after an historic performance in an era of baseball founded on this “home run or bust” mentality, and after finishing second in two out of three triple crown categories while finishing first in the third, Martinez finished fourth in the AL MVP voting.

            Martinez deserves applause for finishing second in two triple crown categories and first in the third. But what if Martinez had finished first in all three categories, making him the first player to win the triple crown since Miguel Cabrera did so in 2012. Would that have made a difference in the voting, ultimately propelling Martinez into first place?

            Out of 12 major league players that have won the triple crown award, seven have won the MVP award for their respective league. Sixty-three percent of triple crown winners have won the MVP award for that season when factoring in the 1922 season when the national league had no MVP honored but had Rogers Hornsby win the triple crown award. Every player since 1956 that has won the triple crown also won the MVP award for their respective league. The voting wasn’t even close in each of those cases either.

            In 2012, Cabrera took home 22 out of 28 first place votes and finished 81 points higher than second-place finisher Mike Trout. The separation gets more and more going down the list. In 1967, Carl Yastrzemski took home all but one first place vote and out-paced second-place finisher Harmon Killebrew by 114 points. In 1996, triple crown winner Frank Robinson earned all 20 first-place votes with a 127-point gap between first and second place. In 1956, triple crown winner Mickey Mantle earned all 24 first-place votes and finished 150 points higher than second-place finisher and teammate Yogi Berra. Yes, I worked backwards which means that the gap is closing between triple crown winners and MVP winners, but winning the triple crown, after leading all three categories at one point during the season, would have helped Martinez. But would it have mattered?

            In the last 10 years, within the American League, the player that ranked highest in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) has won the award six out of 10 times, or 60 percent of the time. This makes sense because, if WAR measures the value of a player over another, then the leader in the category should win the award. For people that believe in statistics only, they preach this approach and it shows. Since 2013, the year where many analysts and voters argued between Miguel Cabrera, the league’s best all-around hitter and Mike Trout, the American League’s WAR leader winning the award because of that argument, the American League WAR-leader has won the award four-out-of-five times. The only one to win the MVP-award during that time and not lead the league in WAR was Josh Donaldson, who had almost identical offensive numbers to WAR-leader Mike Trout. Trout had a better WAR because of his defense. He went the entire season without committing an error while Donaldson committed 18 errors in 2015.

            Martinez might be baseball’s best overall hitter. In an era of baseball centered around the idea that hitters must hit a home run to get the ball by the defensive shift, Martinez played the role of all-around hitter, like Manny Ramirez did in 2004, or like Mantle in the 50s and 60s, or even (dare I say) Barry Bonds of the 90s. If Martinez won the triple crown, would he have won the MVP award as well? If the WAR statistic is around, no one will know.

Tracking how much Red Sox players have made per game so far this season

A topic on 98.5 the Sports Hub's midday show, Zolak and Bertrand sparked an interest in me.

The two co-hosts, Scott Zolak and a voice filling in for Mark Bertrand whose voice I couldn’t figure out and didn’t stay long enough to hear their name, talked about Major League Baseball attracting more players to its Home Run Derby by offering $1 million to its winner. The show’s producer, Jim Louth, introduced the topic, which eventually turned into Zolak shooting the idea down. When Louth stated that the winner would make $1 million for two hours of work, Zolak stated that players make that anyway. Louth quickly shot that notion down.

Obviously, Zolak was wrong. Anybody can do the math in their head to prove that if a player makes as much at $30 million, and because teams expect positional players to play in 150 games or so, a positional player will play between 450-600 hours of baseball per year. That’s $50,000 an hour for someone making $30 million per year and less, obviously, for someone that makes less. Pitchers don’t make much more or less.

The topic made me wonder though: How much does each Red Sox player really make per hour or per game?

Well, I did the math out. Some numbers initially surprised me, such as Andrew Benintendi making $4,125.30 per game played as well as David Price making $955,263.16 per game played. 

I performed the math for each Red Sox player on the 25 man roster as well as important players currently on the disabled list (Christian Vazquez, Dustin Pedroia, Drew Pomeranz, etc.).

Before I share with you how much each Red Sox player made per game played, I have to share with you how I figured each number and some aberrations to the formula.

So, to get dollars earned per game played, I factored that 98 games played is 60 percent of the season. Therefore, each player will have received 60.5 percent of their salary and thus, is divided amongst each game played. Here is an example.

Andrew Benintendi will earn $605,000 this season according to spotrac.com. 60.5 percent of that number becomes $375,402.50. Benintendi has played in 91 games this season, therefore $375,402.50 gets spread across 91 games, which equates to $4,125.30 per game played. In math terms:

$605,500 x .605 / 91 = $4,125.30.

Of course, some aberrations occur, such as Ryan Brazier earning $82,431.25 per game played. It’s unrealistic because Brazier earns a portion of his $545,000 only when he is on the Major League roster. Brazier has been on the Red Sox 25 man roster for only 10 days and has appeared in four games. So of course his salary per game is crooked and not reflective of his actual salary. Also, pitchers appear in less games than positional players and starting pitchers even less than relievers. If a pitcher and batter both make $1 million and the pitcher pitches in 50 games and the batter plays in 150 games, of course the batter will make less per game even though they make the same amount of money and most likely spent the same amount of time on the 25 man roster. So it is not an exact science, but it’s pretty darn close. I created this spreadsheet for your enjoyment, which depicts how much each Red Sox player has earned per game played. Salaries are based on spotrac.com and rounded to the nearest hundredth.
You can access the spreadsheet here

OOTP: May brings DFA of Ramirez, Sale struggles and draft class revealed

April showers bring May flowers, but what do May flowers bring? Pilgrims.  Thank you! Thank you! I’ll be here all night!

Now that I’ve got the joke out of the way, May is a rather down time in baseball. As far as trades and player movement goes, not much happens. Players generally know their role, the closer carousel figures itself out and the surprises of the season become the norm at this point.

It wasn’t surprising when the team started the month off 3-2. That moved us to 14-20 on the year. Still not ideal but a step in the right direction. I’m thoroughly impressed with David Price and Craig Kimbrel so far this season. Price sports a 4-3 at this point of the season and has pitched 46.2 innings in seven games with a 2.51 ERA. Batters are hitting .172 against him and he has a 0.75 WHIP. Kimbrel has seven saves to this point and has been lights out. In 11.2 innings, he has a 0.77 ERA (one earned run) and opponents are hitting .081 against him. The combo has been lights out and I’m loving it because I’m actually a huge David Price fan. When Price is going, he’s the key to the team winning the World Series. And with Chris Sale 1-4 with a 6.03 ERA, that’s the reason why the team is six games under .500.

When Tyler Thornburg came back on May 5, I designated Brian Johnson for assignment. Johnson just wasn’t doing it. He had a 6.20 ERA and a negative WAR. While the easiest option would have been to send Bobby Poyner back to Pawtucket, Poyner actually has a 2.57 ERA in seven innings with opponents batting .222 against him. He’s a better fit for the bullpen and it allows Steven Wright to move back to the rotation.

In case you were wondering, this was the top players in the draft class.

I’m not a huge believer in the top player projections. I go for more of the potential star ratings when drafting. I usually match the players that the game projects to reach five stars and my scout projects to reach five stars and draft those players. But the list is always handy to have by one’s side.

On May 7, I made one of the hardest decisions I had to make so far in my tenure. Dustin Pedroia came back from the disabled list. Fitting him onto my roster was kind of hard. I didn’t want to get rid of Brock Holt because of his positional flexibility and because he was hitting .284 with a positive WAR. I didn’t want to get rid of a guy like Blake Swihart or release a player with multiple years left on their contract (Mitch Moreland, Eduardo Nunez, etc.). So I released DFA’d Hanley Ramirez, who was hitting .154 in 14 games. Taking on another dead contract wasn’t ideal, but without positional flexibility and without giving any productivity, Ramirez had to go.

Halfway through the month, my team is 18-25 and 7-7 in the month of May. Good enough for fourth place in the American League East in front of the New York Yankees. I can pinpoint the exact reasons why the team is under achieving. Reason one is Chris Sale. He is 1-5 with a 6.23 ERA at this point. Hitters are hitting .322 against him with a 1.7 HR/9 rate. What’s interesting is his fielding independent pitching is 3.76, meaning he’s actually pitching great outside the defense around him. Secondly is Rick Porcel-blow, I mean Porcello. He’s 2-5 with a 6.39 ERA with opponents hitting .322 against him. His FIP is 6.76, meaning, his fielders are actually make him better, which seems hard to do because of how bad he currently is pitching. When combining two top tier and top paid pitchers performing badly with a team that is 13^th in the American League in runs scored and 14^th in home runs, that will cause a sub .500 team right there. No excuses, we just have to do better. Unfortunately, this is a computer game so I can’t give the players a pep talk or call a meeting.

On a small note, on May 16 after our 6-0 win against the Oakland A’s Joe Kelly went on the DL with a dead arm. I called up Roenis Elias again. In that game, Sale actually went six innings and gave up zero runs in the win. Make me eat my words Sale! Make me!

On May 28, I received an email from the league about Andrew McCutchen, who will miss an “indefinite amount of time” for “personal issues.” Quite the shame for the Giants because McCutchen had hit 12 home runs up until that point with 39 RBIs and a .298 batting average.

As for us, we ended the month on a three game losing streak. Our record is 26-31. Not good. On to June.

OOTP series: April 2018

Getting all literary, the start of the baseball season symbolizes rebirth, right? A new baseball season metaphorically represents life and death. It is an infant born in April, grows through the summer and eventually fades away in October. Well, according to Out of the Park Baseball, not so much.

On day one of the new job, I received an email from Major League Baseball. It’s the commissioner.

We are sad to inform the other teams of Major League Baseball that Jerry Reinsdorf, Owner of the Chicago White Sox has passed away. Reinsdorf will be missed throughout baseball. HIs son will take over the team.

Wow. Way to hit a new General Manager right in the heart on day one...

I mentioned this when beginning this endeavor. The game will sometimes simulate owners passing away. It makes for a realist experience, but I did think it weird that a death occurs right on the first day. The OOTP actually did something to fix this flaw.

New OOTP 19 Update Available (Version 19.5.49)!

- Added Import/Export functions to both the draft pool
- Tweaked down owner death rate & owner selling team rate
- Fixed independent league teams signing MLB-quality players
- And much more...

Full info @https://t.co/ALicMCqKat pic.twitter.com/7cjb8Bdtih

— Out of the Park Baseball (@ootpbaseball) April 25, 2018

The 2018 season actually started off on a good note for the team. The Red Sox won 4-1. Chris Sale pitched seven innings of one run baseball, striking out 11 and earning the win. Craig Kimbrel earned the save and Mookie Betts hit a double and had three RBIs in the win. 1-0 Red Sox.

The team left Tampa with a 1-3 record. To me, that record is a borderline fire-able offense for Alex Cora. Realistically, the Rays are one of the worst teams in the league and the new guy finds it acceptable to go 1-3 in the first series of the season? We want championships, not this garbage. Who does he think he is? Cora you’re...nevermind. The team heads to Miami and Roenis Elias is scheduled to start the first game. Ballsy move. Even more ballsy is the way Elias pitches. He throws 6 ⅓ innings, allowing six hits, one run, one walk, strikes out four and the team wins 6-2. Rafael Devers goes 2-for-4 with one home run and three RBIs. Bravo Cora...Bravo…

Bravo Manager Cora

I also get this message in my inbox:

Honestly, I’m impressed that Ichiro continues to defy logic and is playing baseball at 44 years old. I’m even more impressed that at his old age, Ichiro can hit .464 and even knock a ball out of the park. As the kids say, that's lit. I also get InMail of the MLB power rankings. The team ranked 21st. Basically ninth worst in baseball (checked the math twice. I'm a writer not a mather). When I first saw this, I thought, Who the eff do these people think they are? I understand my team is 3-6 to start the year, but four of my starters currently have a .300 or better batting average in the first 11 games. Sale has a 2.77 ERA, Price 1.38 ERA and Elias 1.42 ERA. Numbers don't lie people!

Eleven games in, I also picked up that Cora has been starting Brock Holt at second base, Mitch Moreland at first base and J.D. Martinez at DH. That means Hanley Ramirez and Eduardo Nunez are delegated to the bench. I find that an interesting move solely because of how well the two have played so far in real life. But I went through the stats and rationalized that Ramirez is a two star player and Nunez 2 ½ starts. In OOTP terms, if a player has three starts, they are generally good enough for a starting role on a Major league roster. Four stars means a player is above average. Five stars and that player is generally an all-star. Ramirez also started the year 0-14 at the plate and Nunez has played in only one game, so that backs up Cora's decision a little.

When Eduardo Rodriguez and Drew Pomeranz come back from the disabled list, I actually sent Hector Velazquez and Brandon Workman to Pawtucket. Both had not met my standards. Workman had a 5.40 ERA and Velazquez lost his only start and sported a negative Wins Above Replacement (WAR). With Elias pitching as well as he had, I fell I had to keep him, giving me a rotation of four lefties. I liked that, but it didn’t last long.

Three innings, six hits and five runs doesn't cut it for the Red Sox. That, and with Brian Johnson returning from the DL, I elected to send Elias back to Pawtucket. Elias is also a ½ star player, compared to Johnson’s two starts, so I went with the stars over everything..

Half-way through the month, I’m honestly pretty furious with the way my team has played to this point of the season. The team is 6-9 and basically last in every category.

I mean, I guess you can say sixth isn’t bad, but a wise man once told me if you’re not first, you’re last. If I’m not making every other team look like they're playing little league around these joints, I’m not happy. I actually thought about trying to trade for a pitcher because I don’t like the bottom half of my rotation, but I elected to not get too rash. I’m a GM, not a scratch ticket gambler.

Four days later and the game makes me eat my words. Rodriguez goes down with a torn rotator cuff, sidelining him for 11 months. I have Steven Wright five days away from returning from the DL, so instead of trying to trade for someone, I decided to call up Elias again and wait out for Wright. I’m also 9-14 and in last place in the American League East at this moment and honestly, I’m pretty frustrated with my team already, especially my pitching. It’s not like they’re bad, they’re top 10 in ERA, runs against and fifth in bullpen ERA. we’re just not winning games. I hate losing.

I finish the month with a 4-2 loss to the Kansas City Royals. Porcello goes six innings of four hit baseball, allowing three runs and striking out five. Our bats just can’t get anything together. Not a single starter is hitting over .280. The team is 11-18 and in last in the AL East. Surprisingly, the Toronto Blue Jays are in first place in the East with a 22-8 record. The Rays are in second with a 20-8 record.
Honestly, April didn’t go the way I wanted it to. Sale ended the month 1-3 with a 6.14 ERA. That blows. Kimbrel is sporting a 0.93 ERA though, which I love. But overall, not a good month. I can hear sports radio now. “This kid blows! Go pound sand Lewis! He’s too young, he’s bound to make these kinds of mistakes!” To that I say:

We’re on to May.

2014 MLB Hall of Fame picks: Why the Writers are Lacking Basic Knowledge

     Today, Major League Baseball announced who the writers elected to the Hall of Fame as the class of 2014. Congratulations to the three players chosen: Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, and Frank Thomas! All three players deserve the recognition based on their numbers, but the selection still comes with puzzlement. My problem comes with Frank Thomas being selected during his first year of eligibility.
     Frank Thomas was a First Basemen turned DH (Designated Hitter). He did win an MVP award playing First one year, but the majority of his great statistics came as a DH. The role of the DH is to sit on the bench and wait until it is their turn to hit without ever taking the field. The writers of baseball are saying that this is all a player needs in order to be selected as a first ballot Hall of Famer. Oh, and don't let me forget, they still have not elected Barry Bonds, the league's home run leader into the Hall. Bonds did Thomas' job better plus played the outfield every game, and he doesn't deserve the nod?
     Many of the writers say this is because Bonds used steroids, forever classifying him and all the other greats as tainted. Forever the era of baseball he played in will be known as the steroid era. I guess the writers didn't realize that Thomas played during this era as well. Myself and many other people are wondering how come Thomas gets in automatically while Bonds does not? What makes Thomas excused from the "steroids era?"
     I grew up watching this kind of baseball. I grew up watching players crush balls out of the park, watching Bonds, Sosa, and McGwire smash records. I thought this was okay and I bet at the time, many others did too. Looking back not so much, but during the time I believe people did. So why are the writers voting for what they see now and not from what these players did for my generation. I never cared for Frank Thomas, hardly even knew who he was growing up.
     I don't want to take anything away from Frank Thomas. He put up great numbers and definitely deserves the recognition. However, what I long for is to see the greatest players I grew up with get the same recognition. The writers write off (look at the pun I made!) Bonds, Sosa, and McGwire as not deserving the recognition but give it to Thomas, who put up less great numbers than all three and played during the "steroid era." I believe that if Bonds, our home run king who everybody my age grew up watching and admiring, doesn't deserve to get in, then Thomas doesn't solely on the fact that he put up less significant numbers.
     Does Bonds deserve a first ballot nod? I'm not sure. Even with all the great numbers, he did cheat. But hopefully the writers will eventually give him recognition down the road when steroids figures itself out. For my picks? I chose Maddux, Glavine, Mike Mussina, and Curt Schilling.

Why Ellsbury's Deal impacts Jon Lester: And why the Red Sox should be worried

If you haven’t found out yet, you’re hearing it now, Jacoby Ellsbury has inked a seven year deal worth $148 million and an option for an eight year with the New York Yankees (check out the details here).  Not only is this an outrageous deal for something who is 30 years old, this deal will impact other players across the league. And the most important player is the Red Sox’s very own ace: Jon Lester. The deal breaks down into three main reasons why Jon Lester will become a very rich man one day.

Ability

Last season Ellsbury hit 9 HRs and 53 RBIs, which comes along with a league leading 52 stolen bases. His season averages stand at 15 HRs, 71 RBIs, and 55 stolen bases, thanks to an outlier of a season in 2011 (Thanks to Baseball Reference). Without that season, Ellsbury stands at 6 HRs, 37 RBIs, and 37 stolen bases per year without that outlier of a season. I cherish the stolen base as much as any guy, but I like to base my value of production on home runs and runs batted in. With a bias towards those statistics, I do believe that Ellsbury’s $21 million annual salary is way overpriced. Regardless, players with this kind of ability have been given these contracts left and right. For pitchers of comparable value to Ellsbury (Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, etc.), they average at an annual salary of $20 million. Many consider Lester a pitcher of similar quality or even better.

Age

Ellsbury comes into the deal at 30 years old. Right now Lester is younger by a hair, coming in at age 29. The two player’s ages and value are pretty comparable.  Many of these players who get these player friendly contracts come in at the same age as well. These big contracts come around the ages of 29-31. This leads to the inevitable of Lester’s future contract situation.

Verdict

Whether it is in Boston or somewhere else, Jon Lester will get a contract similar to Ellsbury. Lester probably will get something around $22 million over 7 years. What does this mean? The Red Sox better be ready to pay their ace. If they were not willing to give Ellsbury the deal, and for good reason, they better be willing to give it to Lester. However, I do not believe the deal is absolutely necessary. With one of the deepest farm systems in the league, the Red Sox do have many young arms waiting in the wings of Lester. The question becomes: Do the Red Sox trust these young guys in order to save some money? Or do they buck up and give Lester the big bucks, ensuring they keep a proven ace, especially in the playoffs.

In my own opinion, the Red Sox need to be willing to give Lester the money, and the sooner the better.