Statistically Replacing Rick Porcello

The Boston Red Sox will have to manage two things this offseason: the free agency of Rick Porcello and a seemingly tight-as-ever payroll. The Red Sox have committed about $240 million to players this season, which puts the team in the 42% tax rate and sets them up to operate at a net loss again this season. Because of this, it makes sense to move Porcello, an inconsistent pitcher making $21.12 million per year. It would save the team approximately $9.4 million if they moved him now (Porcello makes about $130,000 a game, which means he has earned approximately $11.7 million of his $21.12 million salary) and also recuperate the team's farm system. However, this is the Boston Red Sox who can afford to pay Pablo Sandoval over $15 million a year to play for another team and can afford to operate aggressively, unlike a team such as the Tampa Bay Rays. This also doesn't mention that the team needs to add at least one starter to remain competitive, never mind lose one.

By signing Nathan Eovaldi, and after reading this column by Rob Bradford, it’s all but certain that the Red Sox will allow Porcello to return next season. However, the purpose of this article is not to lecture on how the Red Sox should trade away Porcello to recuperate prospects and retain money, nor state the Red Sox's possible intention insert Eovaldi as the fourth starter in 2020. The purpose of this article is to remind everyone that even with the return of Eovaldi to the rotation now and into the future, the Red Sox still need pitching help. And if the Red Sox won't have Porcello back, not that they should either, they still need pitching help. And statistically, there are much better options out there for a fraction of the price.

I got this idea after reading Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller’s book The Only Rule is it has to Work. I consider Lindbergh and Miller as Godfather’s of statistical baseball analysis. They're two minds at the forefront of how the game of baseball that we know today where starters relieve openers, thousands of shifts occur each year and closers no longer pitch just the ninth inning, but in the highest leverage situation possible. I recommend this book not only as a story about baseball, but also for baseball fanatics who want to read about the inception of the game of baseball how we know it today.

This book and their podcast, Effectively Wild, has made me pay more attention to advanced statistics such as FIP and ERA+ than I previously had. They have inspired my belief that undervalued players are everywhere and if the Oakland A's could use Scott Hatteberg to replace Jason Giambi or if a bunch of baseball nerds like myself can use advanced stats to dominate independent baseball, the Red Sox definitely have room to adapt in this new era. Porcello, who currently has an 89 ERA+, 4.53 FIP , 10 H/9 and 2.8 BB/9 (an average ERA+ is 100, while a 4.53 FIP is like having a 4.53 ERA), is the first culprit. Albeit owning a Cy Young trophy, Porcello has been one of the most inconsistent yet consistent pitchers on the Red Sox staff. He's good for 33 starts every year, but those starts aren't necessarily good ones. If the team is paying $21.12 million for a former Cy Young winner with a 6-7 record and a 5.33 ERA this season to go along with a 4.31 lifetime ERA, there must be a better return on investment somewhere in the league. I’ve done the math on next year’s free agency class and came up with a couple of candidates.

Jhoulys Chacin

Jhoulys Chacin is an intriguing option. Chacin dominated early-on in his career while pitching in hitter-friendly Coors Field for the Colorado Rockies. In 2010, he pitched to a 3.28 ERA and a 9 K/9 rate with a 142 ERA+ and 1.27 WHIP. He went 38-48 in six years in Colorado, which does not reflect a pitcher who also had a 3.78 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 120 ERA+ and 4.03 FIP even after a tumultuous 2014 riddled with injuries that led to his release from the organization. He has since worked his way back to the Major Leagues after signing a couple different Minor League deals and has posted back-to-back seasons with at least 10 wins, 32 starts and an ERA+ of over 100 before his down-year this season. In 35 starts in 2018 for the Milwaukee Brewers, Chacin went 15-8 with a 1.16 WHIP, 118 ERA+ and 4.03 FIP. Chacin’s historical performance indicates that he’s better than his current 3-9 record, 5.40 ERA and 83 ERA+. Chacin is making only $6.75 million this season. He is a prime example of undervaluation based on advanced statistics that could outperform Porcello fractions of the cost. General Manager Dave Dombrowski has shown willingness to dish out money to pitchers with an injury history too when he gave Eovaldi $68 million over four years.

Gio Gonzalez

Gio Gonzalez might be one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game, probably because he is a change-up pitcher in a slider-dominate game. Gonzalez made $14 million at his peak with the Washington Nationals where he went 86-65 with a 3.62 ERA, 8.7 K/9 rate and a 1.31 WHIP along with a 112 ERA+ and 3.45 FIP in seven years with the team. After being forced to sign a Minor League deal with the New York Yankees when no team showed interest in signing him to a long-term deal, Gonzalez later signed with the Brewers upon his release from the Yankees, where he has pitched to a 2-1 record and 3.19 ERA in six starts to go along with a 142 ERA+ and 3.23 FIP before going on the injury list with a dead arm. Gonzalez comes with an injury risk, but yet again proves that he can outperform Porcello at a fraction of a cost. After seeing the market for Gonzalez this past offseason, paired with the fact that next year’s starting pitching free agency class looks weak, I can picture him getting a deal similar to Rich Hill, where he signed a one-year, $6 million deal with the Oakland A’s after pitching extremely well for the Red Sox upon his return to the Majors after a stint in independent baseball.

Adam Wainwright

Let’s be clear: Adam Wainwright will never return to his dominant-self prior to all the injuries he faced, including Tommy John surgery. Even if Wainwright won’t return to a state where he can strikeout over 200 batters in over 200 innings with a sub-3.00 ERA and a 155 ERA+, he has still been a decent pitcher post injuries and into his elder years. So far this season, Wainwright is 5-7 with a 4.31 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 87.2 innings with a 98 ERA+ and 4.51 FIP. Not great, but it mimics Porcello’s career stat line (4.31 ERA, a 6.6 K/9 rate, a 100 ERA+ and 4.05 FIP) and at 38-years old, he will come at an extreme discount (Wainwright will make only $2 million this season). The thing that will stand in the way of a possible Wainwright signing is his Cardinals-lifer status. If he plans on pitching in 2020, he most likely will pitch for the Cardinals or retire.