'These kids aren't cheap anymore'

“These kids aren’t cheap anymore.”

Those were the words that Boston Red Sox beat writer said over the airwaves on Tuesday night on 98.5’s the Adam Jones’ show.

It’s true though. Between Xander Bogaerts, Drew Pomeranz, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts, the team is expected to pay out $30.8 million between the quartet and $48 million among all arbitration eligible players. That accounts for about 25% of the team’s payroll, which doesn’t seem like a lot, but becomes a problem when the rest of the team sits on dead money and overpaid contracts from Hanley Ramirez, Rick Porcello, Pablo Sandoval, Rusney Castillo, David Price, etc. And for a core that has had its ups-and-downs in the production department along with character flaws, well…

The Red Sox are rather strapped with the cash this offseason. Their entire payroll is expected to hit upwards of $190 million without any free agent signings and although general manager Dave Dombrowski said that the team is willing to go over the luxury tax threshold and owner John Henry backed that statement, but let’s not get silly here. I don’t think it’s wise for the Red Sox to spend crazy money on free agents, creating a payroll north of $230 million for this team. There are flaws and strengths alike but it just wouldn’t be a good business move.

Because of that, how likely are the Red Sox to spend on top free agents J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer. Yes, they need power in their current lineup. Yes, J.D. Martinez would fill that role with his career high 45 homers although finding a place for him between DH and first base would be inopportune.  Remember what happened with Ramirez, giving a big contract to a player that doesn’t really have a spot on the team outside of his bat? And the 25 homers and .318 batting average produced by Hosmer last season seems grossly undervalued for the type of contract he wants, six or seven years at $20 million annually.

It’s why I advocate and believe the Red Sox will sign Logan Morrison instead.

Morrison hit 38 home runs for the Tampa Bay Rays last season. He hit only .246 but you give a little to get a little. His walk rates were up, sporting a .353 on-base percentage and 38 homers is no small dosage. He’s also cheap. MLBtraderumors.com projects Morrison to sign for three years at a $9 million average annual value (They actually predict that the Red Sox will sign Morrison too). Morrison has been linked to the Red Sox in the past for how well his swing would match up with the left field wall in Fenway Park. Signing Morrison would be every reason why the team signed Mitch Moreland last season.

With a team full of highly paid players and personalities, the team needs to look for guys that will perform above their annual value, much like Moreland did last season. At $5 million paid out to him, Moreland produced at almost the same levels as Ramirez, who was dished out over $20 million. Morrison out produced both of them. That’s what makes the $9 million AAV so enticing.

I’ve always been a fan of creating a team around paying your top of the line players, surrounding them with quality talent and production at affordable, short-term deals, surrounded by cheap talent brought up through the farm system. Paying $20 million per year for six years plus for guys like Martinez and Hosmer seem like overpayments. They’re guys that produced above their average rates in a walk-year. I’ve never been a fan of signing those players. So I tend to favor a guy like Morrison, someone who produces, is a small investment and actually fills a role naturally instead of forcing a guy into a role like they would have to with Martinez. But we all have our own philosophies, including Dombrowski and co. The Red Sox have a lot of options this offseason. This could get interesting…