October is when things heat up in Major League Baseball. Every game, every out, every pitch matters. We see pitchers like Andrew Miller dominate outside of their typical role and others flounder (Kershaw, Price). Postseason baseball is some of the best entertainment and late nights you can ask for. Here are some thoughts, analysis and picks for this year’s postseason.
The Yankees will defeat the Twins tonight
It’s not much of a prediction because the
Yankees are favored but I’m taking the Yankees. Twins starting pitcher for the
game, Ervin Santana, is 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA in New Yankee stadium. A fly-ball
pitcher, the Yankees have a ton of guys that can take advantage of Santana and
hit a couple out of the park. Expect Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez to lead this
team in the offensive output tonight. However, I don’t expect Judge to have a good
postseason run. He’s young. He’s raw. He strikes out a lot. The aroma around
Judge and his play-style sets him up for a shock in his first post-season run,
floundering on the big screen.
The Diamondbacks will defeat the Rockies
Another favorite I’m picking to win, but
I just don’t see the Rockies winning this one. A .500 team on the road and less
than .500 in the second-half (35-36 in the second-half compared to 52-39 in the
first-half), the majority of the Rockies’ team is worse on the road. And by a
lot. The Rockies’ Charlie Blackmon (34-104-14, .331 avg) is hitting only .276
on the road with a .377 on-base percentage (OBP). That compares to his .391 avg
and .466 OBP at home. Power hitter Mark Reynolds (30 homers) has only nine home
runs on the road. His bat has also gone silent with only two homers in the
month of September. The same goes for starting second baseman DJ LeMaheiu (.294
avg at away vs. .327 away) and starting pitcher Jon Gray (5-1, 3.13 ERA at
home, 5-3, 4.06 ERA on the road). I’m taking MVP Candidate Paul Goldschmidt and
the Diamondbacks in this one.
Cubs will take down the Nationals, but
won’t make it to the World Series
Nationals manager Dusty Baker has never
won a world series. He also has an injured Max Scherzer (hamstring) and fragile
Stephen Strasburg leading the way. The two have found some success in the
playoffs, albeit Strasburg having only one start, but it almost feels like the
Nationals are backing into this one with their okay September and recent injury
hiccups. Meanwhile the Cubs are heating up with a 19-9 September and .662
winning percentage in the second-half, backed by the most runs scored in Major
League Baseball during that time. Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Anthony Rizzo
are on fire in the run production department and with veterans Jon Lester and
Jon Lackey leading the Cubs’ pitching staff, the Cubs are primed to take out
the Nationals quickly. But they won’t make it back to the World Series. Unless
the Rockies find themselves in the ALCS, both the Dodgers and Diamondbacks have
what it takes to take down the Cubs.
The World Series will be the Astros and
whoever wins between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks
I’m getting ahead of myself seeing the
Diamondbacks haven’t even won their play-in game, but the Astros will take on whoever
wins that matchup in the World Series. Not only are the Astros a fundamentally
strong hitting team with the ability to come back from any deficit, the Astros
have plus pitching in Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel along with bullpen arms
Ken Giles and Chris Devenski. The Astros have the keys to take down the Indians
regardless of how well they have played as of late (Cleveland does have the 5-1
advantage in the regular season head-to-head however). They’ve been the most
consistent team in baseball throughout the entire season.
On the other side, the two best teams are
the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks actually have the 11-8 regular
season advantage over the Dodgers and have outscored them in those games too. A
Dodgers-Diamondbacks series could be just as good as the World Series. The
Dodgers have been able to find ways not to win playoff games as of late, but
with Dave Roberts as manager, he might prove the difference this postseason.
Playoff Predictions
Wild card round
Yankees over Twins, Diamondbacks over
Rockies.
American league
Astros in four over the Red Sox. Indians
in five over the Yankees. Astros in seven over the Indians.
National league
Cubs in four over the Nationals. Dodgers
in five over the Diamondbacks. Dodgers in six over the Cubs.
World Series
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