Pomeranz More Successful Bet than Espinoza

Dave Dombrowski stayed up late Thursday night wheeling and dealing, sending MLB’s 14^th ranked prospect Anderson Espinoza to the San Diego Padres for left handed pitcher Drew Pomeranz.

The trade should not come as much of a surprise to Red sox fans. Dombrowski has a history of trading prospects for established major league talent.

Still, the price for Pomeranz, the fifth overall pick in the 2010 MLB draft, seemed high. A pitcher without much history who caught on as a starter in San Diego—home to a pitcher’s ballpark—currently has an 8-7 record and a 2.47 ERA in 17 starts, pitching 102 innings while striking out 115. Most would attribute his season to a “career year” and something he will never accomplish again.

I disagree with that notion, siding with Dombrowski on this trade.

Pomeranz began his career with the Colorado Rockies after being traded by the Cleveland Indians for pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez. He had little success in Colorado, as most pitchers do, pitching to a 4-14 record and 5.20 ERA in 34 games (30 starts). After then being traded to the Oakland Athletics, Pomeranz began to assert himself as a big league pitcher. In his age 25 season, Pomeranz had a 2.35 ERA in 20 games (10 starts) with 64 strikeouts in 69 innings. The following year Pomeranz pitched 86 innings in 53 games (9 starts) and had a 3.66 ERA and 82 strikeouts.

Now in his age 27 season, Pomeranz has continued his success with the Padres. He is what some would call a “late bloomer,” similar to pitchers R.A. Dickey, Koji Uehara (to an extent) and player Jose Bautista. At 27 Pomeranz, how is much younger than those named, is just finally living up to his 5^th overall selection.

I don’t blame Dombrowski for wanting this guy. I don’t blame him for trading Espinoza for him either.

At 18 years old, Espinoza is nothing but a lottery ticket. He has great promise, with great signs of success. He can hit 95 mph regularly on the radar gun with his fastball, warranting a comparison to Pedro Martinez. But how many 18 year old pitchers receive the comparison to Martinez? A lot and not many of those pitchers live up to the hype.

At 18 years old, a lot can change from Espinoza that no one can project. Getting Pomeranz is a more secure bet on a pitcher who has already had success at the major league level.

Dombrowski has also had a successful track record of acquiring/dealing pitching. He traded away pitchers Jair Jurrjens, Andrew Miller and Burke Badenhop while acquiring Max Scherzer, Joakim Soria, Anibal Sanchez and David Price. Although Miller has panned out much later in his career, and was traded for Miguel Cabrera—a move we would all make—Dombrowski has a great track record with his pitchers. I believe that Dombrowski knows more than the public about Espinoza. This is why I agree with the trade.

Although it feels rather sad for Red Sox fans to be giving up a player who could become an ace, Pomeranz was a much needed addition to the rotation. The Sox needed a reliable pitcher to give six quality innings each start if they wanted to compete for a playoff spot and in the playoffs. The price might seem hefty now, but in a couple years, Sox fans will be glad they made the deal.