A Look Back: Was Miley-De La Rosa Swap Worth it?

BOSTON—Three weeks ago, Red Sox fans felt rock bottom with Wade Miley. One day removed from firing pitching coach Juan Nieves, Miley gave up four runs on eight hits in a 7-0 loss to the Blue Jays, bringing his record to 1-4 on the season and actually lowering his ERA from 7.15 to 6.91.

“It’s always difficult to go through when you go through a stretch like this,” said Miley after the loss with Red Sox fans ready to strangle him from their homes.

Now fast forward three starts.

On Sunday, Miley pitched yet another great effort, giving up only four hits and one run in eight innings, good enough for his third win and quality start in a row. Miley’s ERA has dropped from 6.91 to 4.47 during this time as well.

Manager John Farrell spoke about Miley’s recent success to reporters after the game on Sunday.

“He’s turned things around personally this month, that’s pretty clear,” said Farrell. “He’s back to a quick pace—but a comfortable one for him—and he’s commanding his pitches.”

After a terrible start, Miley definitely has turned a corner.

But then there is Rubby De La Rosa, the guy the Red Sox traded for Miley.

De La Rosa has pitched well so far for the Diamondbacks. In nine starts, De La Rosa owns a 4-2 record in 59 innings with a 4.27 ERA. He has 55 strikeouts and has given up 51 hits in those starts.

“He locates the ball so well,” said Diamondbacks manager Chip Hale about De La Rosa. “He’s got a swing-and-miss changeup and then his breaking ball. His breaking ball, can be really good.”

Although the two pitchers have provided some success for their respective teams, can the Red Sox still justify the trade at this point?

At this point of the season, the statistics are pretty comparable. Miley has pitched 50 innings, De La Rosa 59. Both has four wins, both have similar ERAs.

However, De La Rosa has a better future ahead of him.

At 28 years old, Miley has basically hit his peak. What Red Sox fans have seen so far will most likely continue for the rest of the year and the remainder of the contract. Miley will pitch sporadically, which will most likely lead to a decent record, innings pitched, and an ERA somewhere in the 4.00 range.

De La Rosa has more upside. At 26 years old, De La Rosa has more room to improve. He still hasn’t had a full season in the major leagues and he is still developing his pitches.

This doesn’t even include the contract status of each pitcher. The Red Sox owe Miley $3.6 million this season, which spikes to $6.1 million the next year, $8.9 million the following year, and then $12 million in the final year of the contract.

De La Rosa is owed $516,000 this season while he still remains arbitration eligible. The earliest he can hit free agency is the 2019 season.

Although both Miley and De La Rosa has comparable statistics, the difference between the two is potential. While Miley has little room to improve, De La Rosa has yet to even hit stride. The Diamondbacks have more financial flexibility with De La Rosa than the Red Sox have with Miley as well.

The comparison could be apples to oranges. But I like the financial flexibility and potential that comes with De La Rosa more than Miley.