Cheer up Patriots fans, all is still well in New England

Oh how the mighty fall.

After the New England Patriots started their season 10-0 averaging 32 points per game during that span, fans spoke about the Patriots as the best team ever to grace the game of football. Most agreed that the Patriots could trounce any opponent that stood in the way of “Tom Terrific” and the gang.

Now the improbable and what most said would never happen has occurred. The Patriots have lost to the Miami Dolphins, their last two games in a row, and four of their last six games.

As I listened to sports radio throughout the week, I remember radio personalities Tony Massarotti and Adam Jones say that there was no way that the Patriots could lose their last two games of the season. Boston Globe writer Chris Gasper, who appears occasionally on the radio show “Felger & Mazz” said on air that the Patriots could easily beat the Dolphins with half of their reserves in the game, that he believed the Patriots would easily defeat the Dolphins.

Well the Patriots lost the game Mr. Massarotti and Mr. Jones, and they lost playing every available starter Mr. Gasper.

The lack of offensive weapons are not to blame for this historical collapse. The Patriots have who some call the best quarterback to ever play the game in Tom Brady and a tight end who will probably retire as the best ever to play his position in Rob Gronkowski. Sure the losses of Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman hurt their offensive production, but it cannot be the only reason for such a collapse. They are still the fourth best offense in the NFL and ranked second in passing.

There are other reasons to blame. The Patriots loss against the Philadelphia Eagles solely because of their lack of efficiency on special teams by allowing the Eagles to score on a blocked punt and on a punt return. The loss also includes one of the weirdest plays Bill Belichick has ever concocted by allowing defensive back Nate Ebner to drop-kick the ball on a kick-off.

It came down to a terrible call on the coin flip in the Patriots overtime loss to the Jets. The Broncos rallied from a 21-7 fourth quarter deficit to beat the Patriots in week 12 when the Patriots were without their four top targets.

So maybe part of it is unfortunate luck on the Patriots end, combined with some bad calls. Surely it doesn’t help that Brady’s has to throw to Brandon LaFell who has dropped 50% of his passes either.

It looks bad for the Patriots right now. Their offense looks defeated, their defense beat up. Losing four of their last six doesn’t help the situation. I sure don’t feel the same about the team as I did in weeks 11, five, week one even. But they certainly are not out of the Super Bowl hunt.

The two wild card teams should be considered so called “weak” playoffs teams, along with division winner Houston Texans. The Kansas City Chiefs played San Diego twice, Cleveland once, Baltimore once and a not so tough NFC North division. The Pittsburgh Steelers have lost a couple questionable games this season and once to the Patriots as well, albeit coming during week one of the season. The Steelers defense can show up one game and not the next. The Texans are well, the Texans.

I forgot to even mention the Cincinnati Bengals. Prone to horrendous playoff efforts, the team could be without quarterback Andy Dalton once again for the divisional round of the playoffs.

Even though it seems bleak in New England, it isn’t as bad as it feels and seems. I would still put the Patriots as the AFC favorites to make it to the Super Bowl. The recent losing streak, as well as the injuries suffered just create a fog not a blizzard over the path to Super Bowl 50 for the Patriots.

So maybe the might haven’t fallen.

Maybe they are just under repair.

David Price is Worth the Production, Terms are just Scary

As a team with the fifth worse ERA in baseball last season, a combined starter 4.39 ERA, and a rotation sporting no ace, the Red Sox needed major improvements. The team found their answer.

The Red Sox have signed pitcher David Price to a seven-year, $217 million contract. The Red Sox have solved their ace problem.

David Price is one of the best starting pitchers in the game. He has earned one CY Young award and finished second in two other races. He has a career 3.09 ERA, averages 216 strikeouts a season and 227 innings. Price won 19 games in 2010, 20 in 2012 and 18 last season between Detroit and Toronto. Price also has no injury history in his throwing arm.

Price is the surest thing the Red Sox could get of an ace, but I still have my worries and doubts.

Price is thirty years old, the traditional benchmark for decline in a baseball player. He also has 1,441 professional innings on his throwing arm, a scary amount to have on a thirty year old pitcher that the team just gave $31 million annually. Most pitchers decline rapidly in their thirties, just look at C.C. Sabathia, Justin Verlander and Barry Zito.

Handing out a contract of this length and money is scary. Even though Price has all the numbers, credentials and accolades of a proven ace, the terms still scare me. Price just has too many innings on his arm to feel 100% confident.

I am also worried about the clubhouse. I know everyone says that money will brush all tension under the rug, but I still think it is a problem to have David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, and David Price all in the same locker room with John Farrell as the manager. No disrespect to John Farrell’s character or anything about him to that sort, but the man does not seem like the best guy to bring together all of these egos and make them a winning bunch. There are too many egos working together and I think they will all collide at some point.

I love David Price as a pitcher, and he ranks in my top five pitchers currently in baseball. I love his success and have said in the past that I want him in Boston. But the terms of the contract just scare me to death.

The best case scenario is that he opts out after his third year and then signs elsewhere, but I highly doubt that Price would opt out of a $31 million guaranteed contract at the age of 33.

Once opening day comes around, I am sure fans, including myself, will forget all about the price tag. If Price pitches well, finds himself in CY Young contention, and brings the Red Sox back to the post-season, I bet I will find myself at rest about the contract. But for now, I can’t help but imagine all of the bad things that will happen to David Price. It just fits the Red Sox woes.

The Creation of an Epidemic: Tommy John Surgery in Baseball (Part Two of Two)

*Part two to a two part story. Read Part one here

Kids today have nothing to fear about Tommy John surgery. The surgery has become safer than ever, more and more pitchers each year come back and reclaim their elite status after the surgery. Out of all the pitchers that receive Tommy John surgery, 80% make it back to the big leagues. Just take a look at the New York Mets, the 2015 National League Champions. Five of their best and most promising starting pitchers have had Tommy John surgery, which includes Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Jake DeGrom, Steven Matz and closer Bobby Parnell. Kids today see the National League Champions with a rotation full of Tommy John surgery recipients, see their success with Tommy John surgery and begin not to worry about the negatives. Even newly elected Hall of Fame pitcher John Smoltz had the surgery, the first ever to have Tommy John surgery and make it into the Hall of Fame.

            With so many success stories, many people think that the surgery has a 100% success rate and pitchers can come back even stronger after surgery. Without any apparent repercussions for having Tommy John surgery, pitchers rationalize that a new and fixed ligament will basically give a clean slate when it comes to wear and tear on the elbow. These players believe that they can throw harder because of it as well, which will get them to the major leagues and the big paycheck, so pitchers elect for surgery if at all possible.

            However, the stereotype is very much false. Tommy John surgery is a transplant, meaning that a doctor replaces the ligament from somewhere else on the body. The doctor takes a tendon in the wrist, cuts it out, and connects it in replace of the broken ligament. However, the new ligament is no stronger than the old ligament. The inventor of Tommy John surgery, Doctor Frank Jobe, spoke in favor of this notion, saying “The surgery doesn’t make anyone better… It restores. That’s it." Doctors have not perfected the surgery either. In 2014, 11 out of 31 surgeries performed were for revisional purposes. Players underwent Tommy John surgery for a second time because the first surgery failed. According to Stephania Bell in an article on ESPN.com, since 1999, 32 pitchers have undergone revisional Tommy John surgery and a third of those revisions happened in the past year. Bell also tracked five starting pitchers and five relief pitcher’s velocities before and after surgery. Seven out of 10 pitchers had their velocity decrease post-surgery. The three pitchers that had their velocity increase, increased by tenths of a mile per hour.

     So why do pitchers elect to receive Tommy John surgery? Because of the money that comes with making it to Major League Baseball. The average annual salary for a Major League Baseball player in 2014 was $3.82 million dollars. Pitcher Max Scherzer inked a seven year, $210 million deal from the Washington Nationals last offseason. Almost all of the top tier pitchers ink nine figure deals. With pitching in such demand in Major League Baseball, organizations willingly spend insane amounts of money on a pitcher. These teenagers want part of that. Therefore, they feel the need to do anything they can in order to succeed as a pitcher, even if that means needing Tommy John surgery. At young ages, pitchers willingly do anything to net themselves a lucrative contract in the Major Leagues. They will throw hundreds of pitches at top speeds all year round in order to impress Major League scouts. These baseball organizations even encourage it, shown when scouts pressured Brady Aiken to pitch against doctor’s orders. Major League Baseball organizations use the money against these young pitchers. They have created their own conundrum known as the epidemic of Tommy John surgery. An inflation of Tommy John surgeries in baseball without any known long-term consequences is a scary path for baseball to head down. What could happen to these pitchers 10, 20, even 50 years in the future? Let us not wait to find out by taking initiative now.

The Creation of an Epidemic: Tommy John Surgery in Baseball (Part One of Two)

                In baseball, a player with the ability to throw a ball with uncanny velocity and incredible movement has become an indispensable resource. Teams will pay millions of dollars for this kind of talent. In consequence, young players will do anything to secure that million dollar contract by pitching year round, maxing out their inning limits and forcing themselves to throw harder than ever. In actuality, these kids are throwing until their arm falls apart. Throwing a baseball at velocities upwards of 90 mph puts tremendous strain on the elbow. Putting too much strain on the elbow leads to injury and eventually to surgery. This is known as Tommy John surgery, a reconstructive surgery for the ulnar collateral ligament in the elbow named after pitcher Tommy John. Within recent years, Tommy John surgery has plagued Major League Baseball. Pitchers have received the surgery at rapidly increasing rates, creating an epidemic within the game of baseball.

According to Pitch Smart, over the past three years, the number of baseball pitchers receiving Tommy John surgery has increased yearly. As of 2012, approximately 25% of Major League pitchers and 15% of Minor League pitchers have had the surgery during their career. The rate of players receiving Tommy John surgery has also increased by 50% since 1990. Overuse has caused this epidemic. According to Doctor Glenn Fleisig, the research director at the American Sports Medicine Institute and advisor to Major League Baseball, Tommy John surgery usually occurs in 15-20 year old pitchers throwing more than 80 pitches per game and pitch in eight or more months a year. Pitching beyond these constraints generally results in pitching fatigued, leading to overuse of the throwing arm. According to Fleisig, throwing 100 pitches a game every fifth day is unnatural for the arm. This excessive throwing year round causes the inflation of Tommy John surgeries in baseball.

            Nineteen year old pitcher Brady Aiken, provides a great example for arm fatigue. Drafted first overall by the Houston Astros, Aiken did not sign his professional deal because the Astros organization noticed elbow inflammation in his throwing arm, outlined within an ESPN article. In this article, the writer acknowledges Aiken’s rise as a dominant pitcher and the leading cause of his elbow problems. Up until his junior year of high school, Aiken pitched all year round. Once Aiken’s senior year came around and knowing about the rise in elbow problems in pitchers, Aiken and his coach developed a plan to reduce his innings in order to save his elbow. Aiken took the winter season off because of a doctor recommendation. They kept him on a pitch limit and avoided any pitching outside of his regular starts.

            However, a major league scout contacted the two of them and wanted Aiken to pitch at the MLB showcase for promising talent. The showcase would take place during the winter, when Aiken was not throwing. In order to pitch, Aiken would need to build up his elbow strength by throwing every day to ready himself for the showcase. At first, Aiken did not want to start throwing in order to save his perfectly healthy elbow, but the scouts pressured him into ignoring the doctor’s recommendation. The scouts told Aiken that pitching would secure his place in major league baseball, his ticket to a million dollars. Aiken decided to pitch at the showcase. The following baseball season, the same season the Houston Astros drafted Aiken first overall in Major League Baseball’s amateur draft, Aiken would feel soreness in his throwing elbow. The team picked up on the inflammation in Aiken’s elbow during his physical. Houston would retract their offer to Aiken and Aiken would elect to receive Tommy John surgery.

            The sad part about this story is that it occurs regularly in the game of baseball. In today’s world, athletes must accept injury if they want to survive in the world of sports. According to Doctor Mary Lloyd, the competitive nature of sports has programmed youth players to think that they must bend the borders of injury as far as possible, which leads to the increase in elbow injuries. Lloyd warned players about the temptations to push themselves in order to pursue money and scholarships, saying “The 21^st century athlete of any age or sport must throw faster, play harder, earn the scholarship, and don’t tell anybody you’re hurt." The money causes the students to push the barriers and major league baseball takes advantage of the player’s wants. Aiken did not receive Tommy John surgery for the benefit of his health. He received the surgery because without it, Aiken would never make it to Major League Baseball. The surgery saved his career and his chance at earning millions of dollars.

            Rarely does a baseball organization hold it against a pitcher like Aiken for throwing too much. Most baseball organizations do not keep track of potential draftee’s innings nor worry about the overuse of a pitcher’s arm. According to Sam Miller, the author of the article on Aiken, most teams draft players solely based on their velocity and ball movement. So pitchers also disregard their inning limits and force themselves to pitch harder than their arm can handle. If a pitcher destroys their arm in the process, Major League Baseball bares no responsibility either. As shown in the Brady Aiken case, the team just retracts their offer and saves their money while the player forces themselves to undergo Tommy John surgery in hopes of prolonging their baseball tenure.

With First Base Open, the Time to Salvage Allen Craig is Now

With the trade of Mike Napoli to the Texas Rangers, the Red Sox now have a vacancy at first base. With the Red Sox on their way to another last place finish, the team should begin to take inventory of the players under contract and determine who can contribute in the future. Given this, it makes sense for the Red Sox to call up Allen Craig and give him the opportunity at first base.

Craig’s first two opportunities did not go so well in Boston. He batted .128 with the Red Sox in 2014 with only 12 hits and four extra base hits in 94 at-bats. In 2015, Craig showed no improvements. In 24 games, he batted .135 with seven hits in 52 at-bats before being optioned to Pawtucket.

In the minors, Craig has improved his batting average. He is currently batting .271 in 258 at-bats, a good enough sample size to gather a sense of productivity. Given that Napoli batted only .207 with the Red Sox, Craig would seem like an improvement.

However, Craig lacks the productivity that Napoli had.

Craig only has three home runs and eight doubles in Pawtucket, indicating a lack of power. Even though Napoli only batted .207, he did have 13 home runs and 32 extra base hits.

Craig isn’t the only option the Red Sox have either.

Recent call-up Travis Shaw, who has also seen playing time at third base, could replace Napoli. Since being called-up on August 1, Shaw has gone seven for 17 with two home runs and five runs scored as the only active first baseman on the Red Sox’s current roster.

Super utility-man Brock Holt has proven he can play any position as well.

Holt has struggled since the all-star break batting only .209 opposed to his .292 batting average prior to the break. Holt has also seen most of his playing time at second base while Dustin Pedroia remains out with a strained hamstring. When Pedroia returns to the lineup, Holt will return to the super utility role, but as long as first base remains open, the Red Sox’s lone all-star will forever be considered the apparent heir.

Shaw and Holt both seem like productive replacements to Napoli, but neither has any history in the major leagues, giving Craig the advantage.

As a member of the St. Louis Cardinals, Craig had a fair share of productive seasons as a vital member in the Cardinals’ offense. An all-star in 2013, the Cardinals rushed Craig’s return to the lineup during the 2013 World Series as a designated hitter against our very own Boston Red Sox. The Cardinals felt his production would give them the advantage against the Red Sox in the pursuit towards the World Series Banner.

In 2012, Craig hit 22 home runs. In both 2012 and 2013, Craig had more than 90 RBIs while batting .300 or better from 2011 through 2013.

This is why the Red Sox traded for Craig.

They obtained a player with a history of producing at an affordable price. Craig is currently owed $33 million through 2018, which at the time seemed like a bargain. Now not so much, but what if Craig found himself producing like he did in 2013, does the average annual salary of $11 million per year seem all that outrageous?

With the Red Sox playing for next season, they should take this time to evaluate what they acquired in trading for Allen Craig.

Is Craig a .130 hitter with no power or is he a .300 hitter in a really bad slump? The Red Sox will never know until they give Craig a chance at playing every day and with first base now open, the time to salvage Allen Craig is now.

Now Entering, for the Boston Red Sox, Closer...Joe Kelly?

Pitch Joe Kelly, receive a poor start, rinse, repeat.

It has now been six starts, 54 days and one demotion since Kelly has won a game for the Boston Red Sox. The Joe Kelly as a starter project has all but ended as the Red Sox have officially missed on their return for John Lackey, but one move could salvage the team’s failures.

Move Kelly into the bullpen, setting him up to become a possible closer.

Call me crazy, but I think it could work.

Kelly tops out at 100 mph with his fastball in practically every start, but yet still struggles in each time he takes the mound. He often shows flashes of potential in each start, throwing one or two great innings only to follow up with one disastrous inning, ruining his entire start.

Remove the mentality of having to make it through six or more quality innings for Kelly. Let him pitch for one inning, focus on only three batters. He could become a real asset in this situation. Imagine Kelly coming out of the bullpen slinging fastballs at 100 mph. Within this situation, I feel as if Kelly would improve drastically.

As a comparison, how about Tom Gordon?

Gordon came to the Red Sox as a starting pitcher. He could pitch five quality innings but would break down in the sixth inning and on. Gordon still had a good career as a starter, unlike Kelly, but he couldn’t throw 100 mph regularly for five innings or more, his arm couldn’t do it by the time the Red Sox had control over his services. So the team elected to turn Gordon into a closer and his career rejuvenated. Gordon became one of the best closers in the game, becoming an all-star for the first time in his career.

Will the same happen to Kelly? Probably not. But I truly believe Kelly has real potential as a closer, if not, definitely within the bullpen. Kelly cannot enter the closer role immediately as the Red Sox have a legitimate closer in Koji Uehara and Kelly’s struggles as a starter should still make the team apprehensive.

But in a lost season, the Red Sox have already started to take inventory. They traded right fielder Shane Victorino, granting outfielder Rusney Castillo a spot on the roster in order to see what he can contribute. Similar moves might happen in the Red Sox’s near future as well.

Starters become closer more often than one would think—Jonathan Papelbon, Andrew Miller, Zach Britton, even Uehara himself just to name a few. I would take any of those pitchers on my current team.

Will Kelly turn into the league’s best closer? Probably not. Is it worth the attempt? Probably. You can’t succeed unless you try and I have full confidence that Kelly would at least make a viable option out of the bullpen.

David Ortiz is not the Player Everyone Thinks He is

On Sunday, Red Sox fans watched David Ortiz play first base as well as any other option in Boston’s arsenal. Manager John Farrell publicly stated that he has full confidence in Ortiz’s ability to play the position. Fans will watch him play the position again tonight against Miami.

But the question lingers, why haven’t the Red Sox played Ortiz at first base on a regular basis? Most writers and fans agree that the best possible team the Red Sox can put on the field  has Ortiz at first base, Hanley Ramirez at designated hitter and Alejandro De Aza in left field. How has the Red Sox organization not realize this yet?

I suspect the reason is David Ortiz himself. Ortiz’s words insinuate he does not want to play first base regularly. When asked about playing first base, in a light-hearted way, Ortiz would always bring it back to his hitting, stating that playing first base keeps his mind off of hitting, distracting him even. And why should fans expect a 39 years old DH to accept a change of role after 10 years in the business?

Farrell seems to adhere. As a manager with great respect for veterans—the man benched Jackie Bradley Jr. in 2014 for veteran Grady Sizemore and made sure veteran Shane Victorino started this year in right field—I speculate that Farrell feels no need to upset Ortiz by playing him at first base regularly, even if it makes the team better. Farrell has the tendency to start veterans over the best possible scenario.

Publicly, Farrell can do and say whatever he wants, as can Ortiz. They certainly do not have to do what the media and fans say. But they should not deceive the fans. Again, Ortiz has not played first base regularly for more than 10 years, dating back to 2004, and again, no way does it appear Ortiz wants to start playing first base again.

That speaks about David Ortiz’s character.

The Red Sox’s best option of winning resides in Ortiz at first base and Ramirez at DH. However, Ortiz still will not embrace playing first base more often. As the veteran, a guy others look towards and a presumed leader of the clubhouse, Ortiz should be willing to do anything that gives the team the best chance to win.

But Ortiz will not play first base because it hurts his knees so much that he has to spend the entire next day on the couch. That cannot and should not count for leadership.

This gets to my second point. As a long time Bostonian and an essential part to the Red Sox’s 2000-era dynasty, most assume Ortiz can and will stay in a Red Sox uniform on his own time. He will choose when he retires. However, that should not hold true. I contest that if Ortiz plans to play longer than this season, the team needs to trade him at this year’s July 31 trade deadline.

Batting .228 at the age of 39 only looks bad for Ortiz. On a team with two designated hitters—that is Ramirez and Ortiz due to Ramirez’s sheer inability to play any position—in the long term, Ramirez wins. The Red Sox have Ramirez for four years, three more after this season. The Red Sox are contractually obligated to Ortiz only until the end of this season, the team holding two options on the contract. The Red Sox have more invested in Ramirez and Ramirez will outperform Ortiz within those years, if Ortiz continues to play. The Red Sox should focus more on exploiting Ramirez’s productivity than letting the Ortiz legacy play out.

Going forward, if the Red Sox continue to play the way like the last two weeks for the rest of the season, the team will push for winning the division. Their best chance to win is by sporting a team with Ramirez at DH and Ortiz at first base, but without Ortiz putting the team first, it will never happen.

A veteran, leader, contributor, call Ortiz whatever you want, but until Ortiz chooses to put the team before anything else, my adjective of choice remains selfish.