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| Giancarlo Stanton |
On
Thursday, John Paul Morosi reported that the Miami Marlins would accept a dealfrom the San Francisco Giants that included second baseman Joe Panik,hitting-prospect Chris Shaw and pitching prospect Tyler Beede if the Giants
were to take on at least $250 million of the $295 million left on Stanton’s
contract.
At first
glance, the pool of players seems rather short for the price of Stanton. Panik provides
a decent major-leaguer under good contract terms. Panik made only $600,000 last
season and under arbitration through 2021, a steal for a former all-star and
gold glove winner. Shaw ranks as the second best prospect in the Giants farm
system according to MLB.com while Beede ranks third. The Giants’ system as a
whole ranks sixth worst in the league according to MLB.com’s 2017 midseason
rankings.
The Red Sox can take on the entirety of Stanton’s
contract if ownership allowed. The only thing that stops the Red Sox is
ownership’s want to stay below the luxury tax threshold. With the threshold
slated for $195 million, the Red Sox are pressed right up against that
following assigning arbitration eligible contracts. The prospect pool seems
match-able for the Red Sox as well. So lets take a look at it and see if the
Red Sox were to match the Giants, what would they need to offer?
Player No. 1: Center fielder Andrew Benintendi
Benintendi is younger than Panik by three years and
out-produced Panik offensively, but the Red Sox don’t have any other major
league talent of similar caliber, similar age and similar pay grade. Benintendi
made $549,000 last season, is under team control for six more years and has
good potential. Benintendi came in second in Rookie of the Year voting this
past season while Panik came in sixth his rookie year. Benintendi provides
logical MLB-talent the Marlins seek.
Player No. 2: third baseman Michael Chavis
Chavis ranks as the 92nd prospect in baseball
according to MLB.com, making him another slight overpayment by the Red Sox. But
again, the Red Sox don’t have another exact similarity to Shaw and outside of
Chavis’ ranking, the two match up well. Both were selected in the first round
of the draft, Chavis in 2014 and Shaw in 2015. Both expect to have plus power
with good size but below average defense. Both have similar potential to become
a big-league starter if they work on their defense along with progressing their
power hitting. Both prospects rank second in their respective farm systems.
That’s a pretty close comparison in value.
Player No. 3: RHP Tanner Houck
Houck is a farther away from reaching the Major Leagues
than Beede, but fills out the talent pool well. At 21 years old, Houck ranks
fourth in the Red Sox farm system and hits the low-to-mid 90s with his
fastball, reaching 98 at times, making him not too far away from Beede talent-wise.
He’s projected to become a starter/reliever in the Major Leagues, meaning he fill
the role of fourth or fifth starter or the later innings depending on his
team’s preferences. The profile seems similar to Justin Masterson when
Masterson was part of the Red Sox farm system. Beede’s probably projected for a
little more success than Houck, but the Red Sox would have to give up a little
more in Benintendi and Chavis, evening out the offer.
The Red Sox have what it takes to match the Giants; it just
comes down to money and Benintendi. Would the Red Sox give up six controllable years
of a player they really like? I would have to think hard about that, but for
Stanton, I would do it. Stanton just won the NL MVP award, can hit 50 home runs
in any given season and has all the similar tools of Manny Ramirez plus more. I
would take Ramirez in his prime over Benintendi and I would take Stanton over
Benintendi as well.
