Now
that the Edwin Encarnacion signing has settled, I have been able to distinguish
my thoughts on the matter. The first thing is that Encarnacion needs to fire
his agent. After he declined the Toronto Blue Jay’s deal of four years, $80
million guaranteed, he got less in Cleveland’s three year, $60 million deal.
But that is beside the point and if you want to read an article about the
subject matter, I direct you to Jarred Carrabis’s article here.
The purpose of this article is to
distinguish what this does for the Cleveland Indians which in fact, it does not
impact their team and World Series chances as much as every other sports writer
says. Yes, they did just get a 40 home run hitter in an already good lineup and
will get two top pitchers back next season. But as a whole, this signing does
little for the team.
With signing Encarnacion, the
Cleveland Indians will not bring back Mike Napoli. At first, it seems like a no
brainer, anyone would trade Napoli for Encarnacion. But dive into the
statistics and it doesn’t make for a huge upgrade. Last season, Napoli hit 34
homers and 101 RBI, along with a .239 batting average. Encarnacion hit 42
homers, tied for most of his career in one season, and 127 RBI, the most he has
hit ever in a season. His batting average is relatively similar, coming in at
.263 and he gets on base relatively the same amount as well. Encarnacion had a
.357 On base percentage last season while Napoli had a .335 On base percentage.
In 600 at-bats, that’s a difference of getting on base 13 more times.
Encarnacion’s bat replaces Napoli’s,
not adds to it. Statistically, there isn’t a whole lot more going on.
Encarnacion knocks in more runs and hits more homers, but the team’s record get
any better than the 94-67 record the Indians had last season? Maybe by a couple
of wins.
The hope with this signing is that
Encarnacion adds to the post season production that in reality, was terrible
for the Indians last post season. The team’s best hitters hit .230 or worse (Jason
Kipnis .230, Carlos Santana .192, Napoli .173) while Fransisco Lindor was the
only consistent hitter, hitting .310 with two home runs and six RBI. I say
consistent because Kipnis did hit four well timed home runs and eight RBI.
Encarnacion adds his four home runs and 14 RBI to the mix, along with his .280
batting average.
The main focal point here is that
most believe that by getting back two of their better pitchers in Carlos
Carrasco and Danny Salazar for next season fully healthy, it makes for a viable
World Series Champion. I don’t necessarily believe the two pitchers will have a
huge impact. If you watched last postseason, you saw manager Terry Francona
perfectly use his bullpen and starter Corey Kluber to dominate each matchup.
The two starters probably help the cause but I don’t put faith in them until I
see them pitch in the post season. I have seen too many pitchers pitch well
during the season and flop in the post season (see David Price, Clayton
Kershaw).
The Indians picked up a 40 home run
hitter at a relatively cheap price at $20 million per season. Encarnacion’s bat
adds consistency to the Indian’s lineup. Time will tell if it brings a World
Series ring to Cleveland. My guess is that the team performs well again in the
2016 season. They probably win the division and make some noise in the playoffs
again. However, I don’t believe the move makes them the best team in baseball
and in fact, I wouldn’t even say the Indians win the World Series in 2016. If
they do, Francona’s ability to navigate their bullpen wins it for them not
Encarnacion’s bat.
